Buzzit

there is not going to be anywhere around greater London that does not see some snow this time around ! I will have to put my thermal with inbuilt heater flying pants on next week but I am worried about a short circuit

Hi All, I am restarting Grover watch after a few years away from the thread.. happy foraging next week .. got big food shop arriving sunday thankfully.. as people including your freindly neighbourhood grover keep saying.. try and keep an eye on people less able to cope next week

Im trying to recall without looking if the last post I made in here was 2010... Grover watch tells me its going to be very cold and from all of the charts I have perused in this forum over the last couple of days (without reading much of the attending text) I dont know why some persist with practicing one foot in the grave.. Perhaps best to refer back to John Holmes post on page 23 regarding the latest 500mb anomaly chart from NOAA, and the corrosponding strong indication of Northern blocking.. what else do you need yet ? (please dont answer this) Looking forward to posting come Tuesday on how long this will last for, when most people will be nowcasting in their regional threads and model output discussion will have some breathing space

Looking at the 2pm pressure charts there is now a 'lovely' kink in the isobars that looks a little more extreme than I would have expected at this stage.. I am also bearing in mind that with the arrival of the low at some point there will be a lot of wind shifts and nowcasting it looks like precipitation will be around for quite a while into the evening Lastly.. no point sitting at the Beeb / Met alter as they cannot do anything more than we can at this stage... (noting Met website has just gone back to heavy snow 6-8pm for Westminster)

And This post is just right

Already some heavy snow as far south as Leek.. which is at 1c temp and dew point (central spine cold), whereas Scarborough is how far the cold has gotten down the East Coast to date. I think is a good sign for this evening

Haha no... but I havent been around since about 2013 though.. so remember Yamkin as if it was yesterday.. I do wonder if yamkin1 on twitter is the person though

Its going to be a real treat tonight ! (and with lots of chances over the next couple of weeks) and I know this not because an urgent APB has been put out to all Croydon gritters, but because my mum was due to land at Heathrow @ 150pm (returning from NZ) and this has already being put back to 330pm.. is the harbinger of weather doom !

I have not posted for years.. (at least not since Croydon snow plough days) but in this case I have I have to say that the chance of snow is increasing, along with it settling. If the low continues to track the right way we are looking at very heavy wet snow with the obvious chance of transport chaos that entails.. Even the met weather page has been showing increasing amount of snow over a longer period so can't do anymore than that for the doubters

I love this - none of the temperatures match - definitely having an egg in every basket haha

It initialised a low fairly well locationally but I was more reffering what it does with it in the second output chart you posted.. as in treatment of down the line. In those charts it really makes nothing of the low at all

I agree - Though I think it has a higher chance of surviving for longer as it does not have too much to battle against.. Will be interested to see what if anything is made of it on the 12z's

Going off what the 0z ECM did pick up I would hardly suggest it correctly saw this system at all

I have not been on here for a long time - but my bones tell me there is a lot of hopium from now through next week fingers crossed snow lovers...

Thats an incredible photo - thanks BFTV

The big question for me : Is there anything holding the caldera floor up other than Magma ? and if this is the case - it is only a matter of time before the roof (and everything (ice) on top of it) falls in.. and based on the volumes we have a life changing VE event.

I think this is one of the best articles on the current situation and essential reading ! http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/bardarbunga-nature-of-the-beast/

Well we will know a lot more once it melts through the glacier (which could be 100m to 400m thick depending on the exact spot where the magma is interacting with the ice. I would suggest that we should see a break through tomorrow.. let's hope it is not a VEI 6 or worse (unlikely but this process has been making a lot of the right noises for greater potential in time, without any evidence of such occurring) it may even create a fissure past the end of the glacier itself. http://www.ruv.is/frett/small-eruption-near-bardarbunga

Hi All This is a great link to real time quake information from Bardarbunga, use the slider to change the time scale of the plot http://baering.github.io/

Latest Seismic activity at Bárðarbunga persists18.8.2014 The intense seismic activity that started on 16 of August at Bárðarbunga persists. Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. There are currently two swarms: one to the E of Bardarbunga caldera and one at the edge of Dyngjajokull just E of Kistufell. At 2.37 am on the 18th a strong earthquake (M4) was located in the Kistufell swarm. This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996. As evidence of magma movement shallower than 10 km implies increased potential of a volcanic eruption, the Bárðarbunga aviation color code may possibly be changed. Presently there are no signs of eruption, but it cannot be excluded that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely.

Large scale plot map (easier to see where the quakes have been so far) getting close to 1500 quakes now - whatever the outcome it will be very interesting, some plotting methods have shown inflation

Everything I have read this morning tells me that this will be a big erruption - lets hope its not. Definitely looking like quake rings forming / formed. Earthquake count: Last 48 hours Magnitude less than 1 in all: 136 Magnitude 1 to 2 in all: 510 Magnitude 2 to 3 in all: 110 Magnitude more than 3 in all: 6 Total: 762

Update from other sources Earthquake count: Magnitude less than 1 in all: 122 Magnitude 1 to 2 in all: 309 Magnitude 2 to 3 in all: 46 Magnitude more than 3 in all: 2 Total: 479 http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/#view=table Irpsit, watching Bardarbunga August 16, 2014 at 18:24 Several things to point out. First immediate danger is mostly likely only to tourists on rivers which come from the west and north edges of Vatnajokull. This includes the Skaftá river near Laki, and the Jokulsá river, which passes very close to Askja road. So danger is there of a glacial burst, which would without a doubt swept a large part of that road. Also the hut of Nyidalur is located near Bardarbunga, evacuation by jeep takes 2 hours from there. so this must be taken in consideration. Tourists cannot be surprised by a ash cloud like they were in May 2011 during the night, you suddently wake up the next morning to severe volcanic night and ashfall. If an eruption already started (very possible and somewhat likely), it’s going to take between a couple of hourss to a couple of days to reach surface depending on its strenght, but this only if eruption is at least a strong VEI2 or small VEI3. Anything smaller, like a repeat of Fimmvorduhals and it would never break to surface. Any flood could take also between hours to weeks to come out of the glacier. Remember the 1996 flood took an entire month to come out of the glacier and did so by surprise. And that’s the danger. It would be several weeks after “this event†is over. I also do not exclude that this is a runup to a large fissure event NE of Bardarbunga. It could open between 5km to 30km. Remember we are at a time of a hotspot maxima of activity, where very large eruptions are expected between now and mid century. Also rifting cycle predicts a large fissure event sometime around mid century. But a larger fissure would need much more stronger earthquakes (remember Laki unzipped by a series of M5 quakes). But 1996 5km fissure unzipped by just a few M3 quakes. Thus, so far, with the current activity, only a minor fissure can open, not a big one. So either a minor fissure already started or this is just a gradual build-up to larger event later. Two very large fissure events happened in Bardarbunga in historical times, one in 873 and another in 1477. They blew up in a region where there was the largest lake in Iceland (as large as Thingvallavatn), so it caused explosive crater rows and a lot of ashfall. So, that was 600 years between events. And last one was 540 years ago. But between these events, Bardarbunga has minor events, small explosive eruptions that break the ice cap, like in 1902 or 1910, almost on average every 5-20 years, and one moderate sized fissure event in 1862, that lasted several months. Probably other moderate sized fissure events happened but they are badly documented. The strange thing is why Bardarbunga was regularly erupting every few years until 1910 and then stopped (except for a minor event in 1996 and some other unconfirmed under-ice events in between).

Looking at this mornings 6Z GFS output and comparing to prior ECM and 0z GFS I do not think anybody can draw any firm conclusions post 3 days time. Looks like a crapshoot to me, so almost any conjecture as to the outcome at the end of the month / early March may turn out to be the case.

At home in Hampton, just had strongest gust of evening a second ago - house strongly buffeted - would not want to be landing on a plane at Heathrow - stay safe everyone - I must say I love the sound a storm makes. Must take the top off the Irish Mist hiding at the back of the cupboard !