Buzzit

From my viewpoint there is not even anything on the operational charts to support a high filling in the way it does and with the strength it has from nothing 24 hours earlier.. My fairest conclusion is that models are struggling with this Sunday and what will happen next - range of options on the table but none are decided as yet. As another example I find it strange that we go from this to this over 90 hours.

Interesting pattern of output from the GFS operational in last 24hrs. 8/7 6z showed 5' 850s for London on 14/7 8/7 12z showed 8' 850s for London on 14/7 8/7 18z showed 8' 850s for London on 14/7 9/7 0z showed 12' 850s for London on 14/7 The rise in 850s was also reflected in the range of the ensemble output which narrowed spread and lifted temperature over the 24 hours. 9/7 6z showed 8' 850s for London on 14/7 It will be interesting to see whether today follows the same pattern as yesterday with respect to the expected 850s, through the last 24 hours we have seen an overall increase in expected 850 temps for London and parts SW for Sunday. Am also wondering whether initialisation conditions as the day warms up is having an effect - though unlikely I guess. The other thing that is baffling me with output at the moment is how quickly the GFS takes a Greenland area with low pressure everywhere and replaces it with 1024+ high pressure within two days ? Witness the 6z it has 1008mb slack pressure over Greenland on the 17th July and then within 24 hours it has a big fat high with solid 1024mb high pressure = bonkers

Hi SK, I really appreciate your posts and I think your written explanation of methodology / reasoning is also improving as you get more posts under your belt (if you do not mind me saying so). I also appreciate that you do not fence sit and you do have your theories as to where things are headed and I also think that comes across well in your posts. I may disagree with you, with respect to the amount of faith you place in some of these signals but I do respect your methodology. Regards Steve

Last 25c for when where and for how long - forever ? till next year ? Is winter starting next week ?

Unless you are part of the 5% where it is not the best model IMBY

Also worth pointing out GFS is in 3rd place at the moment for the preceding 30 days with respect to every single Geo-potential Height accuracy at 1000, 750, 500, and 250hpa and at 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, and 10 days. ECM is the clear leader (as usual)

In the last 18 hours the GFS Op has lept on the idea that the 14-16 July will see the transition to much cooler weather, while also being the only model to make anything of the tropical storm heading towards the lesser antilles at the moment (with respect to keeping it together after it passes through Cuba. In both cases I am trying to figure out what the Good For Something Model is good for but am struggling

Am hanging out for 30c do not think it will be too much longer going to be a lovely night tonight ! Enjoy everyone

Thanks for the assist NorthernRab though I think you quoted from the wrong post ?

The initialisation of the spell yes, the specifics during the spell : no, and potential breakdown : no - are all conjecture at the moment. Have updated my previous post so is a little clearer

I want to make a personal point at this juncture - If I see a big fat high on all the models over the UK for the next 7 days (as we have at present) then I am not even willing to think about a breakdown until that breakdown comes into the four day window. Why ? Because model synoptics are increasingly unreliable the further ahead they go, and I see an inherent bias to resume normal programing as soon as they get the opportunity. This mornings 6z Op run is a good case in point.. high disappears as soon as the run moves to lower resolution.

No it couldn't Never seen so many summer junkies out at once Keep the faith

would love to know accuracy stats for +70 fax charts.. Anyone know if it is any better than model output ? (Would be surprised if it is more than minor) ThanksI also note that the Met is showing a big fat high at +96 so an element of scaremongering going on ?

Since this thread is akin to what it is like during winter with a prospective snow fest on the way.. I modify the following sage advice "Wait for the high pressure to build and then the heat will come"

Whatever... : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_fyang.pdf

Good time to remind new users that the GFS6z and 18z are slightly less reliable (stastically speaking) than the 12z and 0z due to slightly less initialisation data. In the current situation with a high confidence across all models of what I would call a strong adjusting pattern change by the end of this week. I would concentrate on the 0z and 12z output only - but that is just me

Models are a strange lot, out of interest Looking at 6z output from GFS and NAE, the GFS was a lot more accurate for 12pm today. Yet both have precipitation in practically the same place for 6pm today

My only issue with that is the region around France and Spain is quite different in comparison

I dont like that chart - too much can go wrong from there - in any case the difference between UKMO and GFS at +60 is like the difference between chalk and cheese with high pressure quite different on the respective OPs. Even by +36 you can see the HP not quite doing it on the UKMO. I want GFS to be right but there is enough to keep me cautious still. All Eyes to the ECM

All of the models seem to be a fail with respect to immediate temperatures today as example my local temp is 3c higher than reported and has been consistently higher than the model output all day regardless of which model output I look at. Strange. With respect to the GFS 12z OP output there is quite a subtle but important change at +72 when compared to the GFS 6z OP which results in a more mixed bag for the period after. My thinking is that the actual synoptics this Friday will be important for understanding the following week.

Sorry I want a decent storm absolutely but I also think your post before was a little too misleading for any new people who may have expected it as a certainty.. Thanks for the clarification fingers and everything crossed

Strange that as is a low Probablity even though using a TEMPO. I wouldnt say they were "all going for storms" from that ticker

Not going to happen - just like I posted a Fish nope yesterday afternoon. 1PM BST 4PM BST

It may be 'continually' in FI but one thing I have noticed over the last week with respect to GFS output is that it has consistently shown the jetstream originating and running at higher latitude from around the start of July onwards. At the same time there are still some lower latitude streaks hanging around on most of the output over the same period which complicates matters. I am currently 'hopeful' that July and August will turn out more settled than currently expected as I see slow growing hints of a proper pattern change allowing the jetsream to generally sit above the UK. By the way I am looking forward to the rain clearing on Sunday in time to see the biggest perigee full moon on the 23rd June. (biggest until August next year) Should be quite a sight to see once the rain disperses.

I live by Twickenham Studios. I imagine what it would have been like running into Sid James on a bender after work at the local