sebastiaan1973

Yep, for the Dutch it is a bad run. But, I guess it is the same for most of you too Don;t get me wrong, I prefer these charts above the normal west circulation.

Thanks for uploading this chart. The cold is not going to the S/SE but SW, which erodes the Greenland anticyclone and doens't deliver the true cold air to us.

EC12h, it doesn't deliver the white flurries to the hungry British snow fans. Chart 15th of January.

Sorry part 2. We see a westcirculation. This is EC at day 15. Is this a reflection of MJO phase 3 or stratosphere? Or both?

At De Bilt this is perhaps the picture. Day 10-15 shows a cluster with warmer weather and a (small) rise in average temperature.

Sorry to say, on the long term, 50% of the ENS shows a northwest, west or southwest wind. [De Bilt]

To me, these look great.

Yep, this is the problem for central and northwestern Europe alike. The low countries have besides that, the issue of wind from sea which warms the cold air too much.

Well, the cyclone in the southern part of Scandinavia prevents the continental arctic air to move southeastwards.

A nice tweet. You can find these maps here https://forum.vwkweb.nl/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=4690&p=252615#p252615 Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994341

A nice tweet. You can find these maps here https://forum.vwkweb.nl/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=4690&p=252615#p252615

The best charts of this winter.

You mean phase 1 of the MJO?

Truly amazing charts. Lots of wind and -10c at 850 hPa hitting the eastcoast of England. Over the Northsea we join/ and welcome the wonderful air.

No SSW probably for a while (EC46)

EC46 update, Cold two weeks after 8 of January. Persistent anomaly in the NW/ Greenland. MJO in 20 days in the direction of 6.

I guess it is more or less the same in parts of sourthern England. After a cold week, the 8th of december till 31th was extreme warm at De Bilt. Just in 2015 it was warmer. Second column is sunhours. It was very cloudy these days.

Excellent development, a British anticyclone. Blocking in that area. Abstract Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can significantly impact tropospheric weather for a period of several weeks, in particular in the North Atlantic–European (NAE) region. While the stratospheric forcing often projects onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the tropospheric response to SSW events, if any, is highly variable, and what determines the existence, location, timing, and strength of the downward impact remains an open question. We here explore how the variable tropospheric response to SSW events in the NAE region can be characterized in terms of a refined set of seven weather regimes and if the tropospheric flow in the North Atlantic region around the onset of SSW events is an indicator of the subsequent downward impact. The weather regime analysis reveals the Greenland blocking (GL) and Atlantic trough (AT) regimes as the most frequent large-scale patterns in the weeks following an SSW. While the GL regime is dominated by high pressure over Greenland, AT is dominated by a southeastward-shifted storm track in the North Atlantic. The flow evolution associated with GL and the associated cold conditions over Europe in the weeks following an SSW occur most frequently if a blocking situation over western Europe and the North Sea (European blocking) prevailed around the SSW onset. In contrast, an AT regime associated with mild conditions over Europe is more likely following the SSW event if GL occurs already around SSW onset. For the remaining tropospheric flow regimes during SSW onset we cannot identify a dominant flow evolution. Although it remains unclear what causes these relationships, the results suggest that specific tropospheric states in the days around the onset of the SSW are an indicator of the subsequent tropospheric flow evolution in the aftermath of an SSW, which could provide crucial guidance for subseasonal prediction. How to cite. Domeisen, D. I. V., Grams, C. M., and Papritz, L.: The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 373–388, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020, 2020.

The latest 4 control runs by GFS. They seem to me better thann the oper.

Seems to me a toppler in a couple of days. On the westside of the anticyclone the movement is too much from west tot east.

EC240h. Here we go.

Fantastic EC. Great setup. For both sides of the Northsea.

Sorry, to bring some bad news, in week three the anomaly disappears (a lot less) to our NW. But we must remember these are based on 0h data.

Chaotic image at 138h GFS12h ENS, lots of different solutions.