sebastiaan1973

I have already for you the temperatures for De Bilt based on tonights run of ECM 1: 0/-5 2: 0/-7 3: -3/-7 4: -3/-8 5: +1/-3 6: +1/-6 7: -4/-8 8: -3/-10 9: +1/-5 10: +3/+1 I was really amazed by it, I expected somewhat higher temperatures.

My link Amazing ENS! 10 icedays, and bitterly cold

the temperatures at the De Bilt based on ECM 12 31: -1/-1 1: -1/-5 2: -3/-7 3: -2/ -5 4: -7/-12 5: -6/-10 6: -3/-7 7: -1/-6 8: -1/-5 9: 0/-2

Hey Guys, at www.weerwoord.be someone already put the temperatures for De Bilt based on tonights ECM 12run He always receives these temperatures earlier, so these temperatures can be trusted. 30: +1/+1 31: 0/-1 1: 0/-1 2: -2/-7 ---> bij sneeuwdek tot -12 (My translation, with snowcoverage -12) 3: -5/-8 ---> bij sneeuwdek tot -12 4: -5/-8 5: -5/-8 6: 0/-6 7: -1/-6 8: -2/-7

Hey guys, Just over the Northsea it is just as exciting as in the UK. Lots of discussion especially about the GFS output, which mean a lot of difference to the Netherlands. I would like to share with you is that a meteorologist told at www.weerwoord.be something important about GFS. He says (my translation), that there is no biascorrection for the raw NCEP Ensemble, there is a correction for the NCEP but just put in practice for the USA. Besides that he told that in his opinion the GFS ENS gives to little a daily shift (between night and daytimes). I hope you get your cold and snow!

Excellent EPS http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/Data/15DAAGSE_06260_NWT.png

hai weatherfanatics, my name is Sebastiaan from the Netherlands I really like to read your forum, so I joined this forum and this is my first attribution. I would like to say to you, that a Dutch meteorologist just told at weerwoord.be that the EC of tonight is probably containing a fault. He wrote Dit is een grote sprong tussen twee ensembles, vrij ongewoon. Er bestaat kans dat het gehele ensemble, en ook de ECMWF operationele run, beïnvloed is door een relatief grotere fout in de analyse. Zo zie ik dat er geen gegevens van de MTSAT, de geostationaire satelliet voor Oost-Azië, zijn meegenomen. Dat is de afgelopen drie maanden niet eerder gebeurd. THere is a giant gap between the two ENS, which is very unsual. There is a chance that the whole ENS, and also EC operational run is influenced by a relative bigger mistake in the analyses. E.g. I there are no data of MTSAT used, the sattelite for East Asia, this wasn´t case for 3 months. Another helpful link is this one http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden it contains the ENS for several areas in the Netherlands E.g. given southeast of the Netherlands, see that wonderfull control !

hai weatherfanatics, my name is Sebastiaan from the Netherlands I really like to read your forum, so I joined this forum and this is my first attribution. I would like to say to you, that a Dutch meteorologist just told at weerwoord.be that the EC of tonight is probably containing a fault. He wrote Dit is een grote sprong tussen twee ensembles, vrij ongewoon. Er bestaat kans dat het gehele ensemble, en ook de ECMWF operationele run, beïnvloed is door een relatief grotere fout in de analyse. Zo zie ik dat er geen gegevens van de MTSAT, de geostationaire satelliet voor Oost-Azië, zijn meegenomen. Dat is de afgelopen drie maanden niet eerder gebeurd. THere is a giant gap between the two ENS, which is very unsual. There is a chance that the whole ENS, and also EC operational run is influenced by a relative bigger mistake in the analyses. E.g. I there are no data of MTSAT used, the sattelite for East Asia, this wasn´t case for 3 months. Another helpful link is this one http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden it contains the ENS for several areas in the Netherlands E.g. given southeast of the Netherlands, see that wonderfull control !