sebastiaan1973

For me, it's a little bit to far, to be excited (goosebumps) , but indeed finally something to look forward. Thanks for sharing this information with us.

Last month achieved -3.05 for QBO. According to this (http://www.usmessage...009-2010-a.html) little research the QBO will decline only slowly. 'The question now becomes.. when the phases switch, how long until the -10 threshold is reached? Historically, 20/24 (83%) -QBO events reached this point within 5 months of the phase switch. Assuming the worst case scenario happens, and September is when the phase switches, using just this, there is an 83% a negative QBO state of -10 or lower will be reached by February. but there's a twist. The atmosphere does not let the QBO trend from near neutral toward extreme negative readings in the Fall or Winter. What time of the year the QBO change phases has a major impact on when this following -10 threshold is reached. Since 1953, the QBO has changed from positive to negative 6 times in April or May. Of these 6 times, every event was at -10 or greater within two months. June has seen a switch 5 times. Of these, there are 3 examples of it reaching -10 within 2 months, one example at 4 months, and at the extreme it didn't get there until 7 months. In the 7 month example, the QBO switched in the later half of June, which matches what comes next.. When switching phases in July or August, the average amount of time it takes for the QBO to reach -10 is over 8 months. So basically, we need to from a +QBO to -QBO sometime before June 15th to achieve a -10 or lower anomaly by the Fall/Winter. Below is data showing the direct correlation between time of year the QBO phases switch, and how long it takes for a -10 point to be reached' The QBO negative phase started in august of this year (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data).

Thanks. Okay so it's around average ( 100?)

Interesting read Partholon. What's the geomagnetic ap index right now?

That's a large difference. According to the picture I placed on top of this page I'm afraid there is no correlation for our region.

When you take a close look at this picture (from the article Nick placed) there is no regression (temperature, picture below) in our region

The grey colors idicate less snow?

No worry, I gave the netweather link, so they can click, and they will get to to the Netweather site, I really don't see any problems with that

The nonsense of James Madden has even reached the Dutch news for children. They told you shouldn't to Brittain this winter because it will freeze more than 20 degrees

Thanks Stuart for your presentation, very interesting, I've put it too at a Dutch website for weather freaks. Just a little suggestion, if it is possible please some better sound and movie quality.

Yes it will.

Interesting. Is it me that can't see the text at his computer screen?

Indeed it doesn't look that well.

This might be an interesting read http://www.usmessage...009-2010-a.html Ain't it true that La NIna leads to a colder stratopshere?

thanks, their division of Europe

http://www.nws.noaa....ohen_062211.pdf The correlation between snow and circulation:

In my opinion Accuweather haven't given a good explanation for the development of the West European Ridge.

http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp Typical NAO+ winter

Thanks for sharing this analogue. Over here in the Netherlands this winter was cold. It achieved a Hellman of 131 (calculating all negative daily averages together). E.g. 2010 achieved 94.7. So 1970 is quite impressive. http://www.knmi.nl/k...n/hellmann.html Difference with 1970 and this winter is El Nino (1970).

What's the reason for this snowgrowth? I thought open water gives the atmosphere more moisture?

Well I'm not an expert but I think that La Nina leads to a colder stratophere around the Northpole. Making the polar vortex stronger, high pressure can't reach enough to the north.

The latest forecast of the ENSO. The average as low as -3 in februar and march! E.g. the outlook from IRI is based at a weak La Nina http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/2011/sep2011/text/Europe.html

chionomaniac do you have an update of the Ozon levels?

Today it is snowing around Noril'sk, southeast of Nova Zembla, so those red dots should disappear quickly. The following days some more snow is expected