sebastiaan1973

I found this wonderfull winter outlook 2012. Altough it focuses at North America, it is usefull in someway for NW Europe as well. http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/09/my-preliminary-winter-outlook-2012.html It predicts a negative NAO and AO.

Hey Weatherlovers, I just read this article, I wonder is it true Ireland had the coldest june, july in 50 years. Over here in the Netherlands often the newspapers give the readers false information about the weather. http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Global-cooling-as-Ireland-records-coldest-June-and-July-in-50-years-126569913.html

The 850hpa charts are based at research form reanalyses -> http://reanalyses.org/atmosphere/overview-current-reanalyses http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.776/pdf -> article describing the research The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time-scales,with emphasisonthe statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset’s time-varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6-hourly temporal and 2◦ spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.

Exciting news for all lovers of historical weather analysis. Wetterzentrale has uploaded 500hpa and 850hpa charts from 1871 till now. So you can watch some very exciting event from the past in full colour. http://www.wetterzen...n/fsreaeur.html

2011 at De Bilt was equally warm as the record april of 2011, 13.1c

Also in the Netherlands some exciting 'warm' times. Till 28th of april the temperature in De Bilt is 12.9c, which is an amazing 4.7c too warm. The record is 13.1c. We need 14.9c for the last two days, which is almost certain.

Till 24th of April the average temperature in De Bilt is 12.7c. Which makes it the warmest month in history (if we april counts 24 days!). Probably april 2007 wouldn´t be beaten this year. 2007 ended with temperatures around 25c.

Over here in the Netherlands De Bilt recorded till 16 april 11.0c. Which makes it the third warmest month. Just behind 2007/9. April 2007 is by far the warmest april month in 3 centuries, it has a average temperature of 13.1c.

http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/daggegevens/antieke_wrn/index.html Here you can find lots of data. Day to day. Several stations in the Netherlands.

Stewart, I just wonder how you came to this list of your favoured ENSO states? E.g. 1998 we witnessed a very strong EL Nino event, and the winter of 1998 was not cold at all. So this is an exception? What's the idea behind it? And can you please tell us something about your surprise about the strong negative NAO/AO this winter and what's the idea for the meaning of this for next winter? Thanking you in advance! I'm so curious.

Over here in the Netherlands, De Bilt recorded 9,1c the lowest since 1996, despite july being among the top five warmest july months

Glacier Point, the fourth chart is not right, it is not a 500mb chart, instead a 30mb. And I find it remarkable that in a year of cold 30mb temperature in December - January period we have a little +ve height anomaly in the Atlantic. I read such an anomaly too in the Netweather winter forecast and in the seasonal forcast of EC And you wrote: Note the unusually high proportion of Nina winters there. Is this coincidence? And looking at these cold 30mb years, I see some very cold months; 56, 86, 79, 96.

Satellite observations of historical autumn–winter snow cover are applied over Siberia as model boundary conditions for two snow-forced experiments, one using the highest observed autumn snow cover extent over Siberia (1976) and another using the lowest extent (1988). The ensemble-mean difference between the two snow-forced experiments is computed to evaluate the climatic response to Siberian snow conditions. Experiment results suggest that Siberian snow conditions exert a modulating influence on the predominant wintertime Northern Hemisphere (AO) mode. Furthermore, an atmospheric teleconnection pathway is identified, involving well-known wave–mean flow interaction processes throughout the troposphere and stratosphere. Anomalously high Siberian snow increases local upward stationary wave flux activity, weakens the stratospheric polar vortex, and causes upper-troposphere stationary waves to refract poleward. These related stationary wave and mean flow anomalies propagate down through the troposphere via a positive feedback, which results in a downward-propagating negative AO anomaly during the winter season from the stratosphere to the surface. This pathway provides a physical explanation for how regional land surface snow anomalies can influence winter climate on a hemispheric scale. In this article you can read about the relation between snow and winter. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442%282003%29016%3C3917%3AMNHWCR%3E2.0.CO%3B2 <br clear="all">

De Bilt, The Netherlands, had a temperature of 10.5. May 2010 is among the 10 coldest of the last 110 years. KNMI says in the new climate the return rate of this month is once in the 100 years.

Thanks GP! I wonder what makes the GWO spends time in phase 5 & 6? Is there any chance the GWO will spend some time in phase 5 & 6?

Hey Karyo very interesting what you and some others post over here in this topic where can I find some more information for the correlation between the phases of MJO and positioning of high pressure in our neighbourhood? thanks!! sebastiaan

@ weather, these are not GFS 12 temperatures but already the temperatures of ECM 12h run

Excellent developments by ECM I have the temperatures for De Bilt based on the 12h run 12: -2/-3 13: +3/-5 14: +3/+2 15: +2/-1 16: +2/-1 17: +4/0 18: +3/+1 19: -1/-2 20: -2/-4 21: -4/-6

temperatures for the De Bilt, based on the 12 run 9: -1/-5 10: +1/-1 11: 0/-1 12: -1/-2 13: +2/-3 14: +1/-1 15: +1/-3 16: -1/-4 17: -1/-4 18: -1/-4

temperatures for De Bilt based 12 hr run ECM 8: -3/-8 9: -1/-4 10: 0/-1 11: -2/-4 12: -3/-5 13: -4/-9 14: -5/-9 15: -1/-7 16: +1/-1 17: -3/-4

My link excellent ENS

I have the temperatures for De Bilt for you, based at the ECM run 12 7: -3/-5 8: -3/-7 9: -1/-5 10: 0/-1 11: +1/-2 12: -1/-2 13: -3/-5 14: -3/-6 15: -4/-7 16: -5/-9

i've got already the temperatures for De Bilt based on the 12 run 6: -3/-7 7: -3/-6 8: -5/-10 9: -5/-7 10: -1/-3 11: -1/-3 12: -1/-3 13: -3/-5 14: -3/-5 15: -4/-6

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default_pluim.asp?r=midden Excellent ENS. Notice you can also select different regions in the Netherlands.

Excellent ENS! Really amazing. The ENS. average keeps the whole period below zero. http://www.weerplaza...im.asp?r=midden at http://www.winterplaza.nl/default.asp?r=noord you can check the ice for the north of the Netherlands. The needed ice thickness for the Elfstedentocht is 15 cm! But being Dutch I know a lot of the route is not filled with ice yet.