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sebastiaan1973

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Everything posted by sebastiaan1973

  1. sebastiaan1973
    EC32 shows cold weather (1-3 too cold) till the end of the month for large parts of the continent. In eastern Europe even colder. From 16-23 it's around average in the northern parts of the UK and Ireland. After that in the whole of the UK 1-3 too cold. Entering february there's not a clear signal.
  2. sebastiaan1973
    Well, at 120h a new wave arrives at 10hpa. Fading away slowly in 10 days time.
  3. sebastiaan1973
    That's the old one. Here you can find the fresh one. http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/default.asp?r=midden&type=eps_pluim
  4. sebastiaan1973
    In my opinion the same as GFS and UKMO at 120h. Too bad.
  5. sebastiaan1973
    UKMO is not looking good. The circulation in the Atlantic is too much from SW to NE instead of S tot N. A real shame.
  6. sebastiaan1973
    http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012011100!!/ There are two clusters, circa 20 members are following the oper and control.
  7. sebastiaan1973
    Wonderfull charts this morning by EC. Look at this setting at 240h. Lots of very cold air at the Continent. A very desirable outcome.
  8. sebastiaan1973
    An overview of the SSW events. The latest was 23march 1965.
  9. sebastiaan1973
    No SSW is forecasted. See the chart, no reverse zonal wind at 10hpa, 60N. EP Flux is still not good at day 5-10.
  10. sebastiaan1973
    Tonights ENS counts 5 clusters at 120h, so lots of uncertainty http://www.ecmwf.int...0912!!chart.pdf
  11. sebastiaan1973
    No improvement concerning the EP Flux. At the end of the forecast they are not poleward oriented. Furtheron there is a forecasted positive zonal wind at 30hpa, 60n, although we do see a decrease. In the coming days we also see a reverse zonal wind at lower heights. Illustrated in the forecast for 6 days ahead.
  12. sebastiaan1973
    I agree with you Matty. The chance for a easterly is and remains small.
  13. sebastiaan1973
    http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/ Not looking good.
  14. sebastiaan1973
    I think GFS12 is a failure. At 114 we can clearly see a zonal and not a meridional development in the East of America.
  15. sebastiaan1973
    24th of January 2009
  16. sebastiaan1973
    Is this a SSW? http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30871-stratospheric-warming-event-on-the-way/page__st__280 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012010612&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=384
  17. sebastiaan1973
    Well if I understand GP rightly (according to those charts where the highest temperatures are, develops in time high pressure) we can expect Canadian highpressure, from west to the east coast. Excluding Greenland. Which is inline with the EC32 update Matt Hugo gave us.
  18. sebastiaan1973
    Thanks Matt for sharing this information with us. Chionomaniac, GP wrote lately that we see right now the effects of the first warming (around Christmas) and right now we witness the second wave and a major wave is forecasted due to Mountain Torque. So I wonder is it the 'type' (in this case remote), time or is a heavier warming needed. E.g. if this was a boxing game, they hit eachother but there it still no Knockout, can we expect such a knockout after 1 round (when the opponent is still fresh) or is it more reasonable to think in round 3? Or do we fight with not enough power, do we hit not the face but his arm or other parts which hurt not so much?
  19. sebastiaan1973
    Over here in the Netherlands 1 december till 5 january reached the third place with an average temperature of 6.7c, just behind 1935 and 2007.
  20. sebastiaan1973
    These two charts are more or less the same as yesterdays. At 1 hpa we see on the longer term even reverse zonal winds. And a reducting at 30hpa from almost 40 now, till somewhat below 20 in the end. At the 30hpa there is a big rising from around -80c to -50c.
  21. sebastiaan1973
    Pay you money, take your choice which way this will go after this point although note the number of 'gateways' in their where the modelling could and most likely will begin to shift, particularly as upper atmosphere profiles begin to shift around. I can't understand why people see GPs post as a downgrade. English is not my mother language but I read good things in it. Especially the combination with the developments in the stratopshere. Which he made clear in a earlier statement were all positive. Remember the inmens mountain torque he wrote about ?
  22. sebastiaan1973
    This speaks for itselfs, def. better output from EC than GFS. Exciting times to come.
  23. sebastiaan1973
    Latest (29-12) 32 day forecast by EC indicates a warm first half of the month and back to normal (or slighty above) temperatures in the second half of january. The Precipitation anomaly indicates high pressure in the SW of the UK.
  24. sebastiaan1973
    Even at 348 it seems another wave 'hits' the 10hpa level. Perhaps I'm wrong but to me it seems we have wave after wave (?)
  25. sebastiaan1973
    From day 6-10 a reversal at the higher levels. Not at the lower levels. I think it's a start and we need another 'heat' wave.
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