sebastiaan1973

No, but as time progresses, it is becoming colder. I want to adapt to it, but keep the heating off.

https://nitter.net/WorldClimateSvc/status/1715084594356093041#m Paul Rondy It has indeed been shifting westward, but some recent and ongoing wind stress signals might start to move it farther east again. The Central Pacific Westerly windburst could cool the Central Pacific, but then over the next several weeks warm the East Pacific.

Are there any updates for them selves? Are they running the model more than once a month?

Tweet by Ben Noll.

Tweet by Ben Noll.

Can't find the whole article, but here is the abtract. Adam Scaife. UKMO's finest Abstract This study investigates the interdecadal variation of the Scandinavian (SCA) pattern and corresponding drivers during the boreal winter. It is found that the SCA pattern experiences a prominent regime shift from its negative to positive phase in the early 2000s based on several reanalyses. This interdecadal change contributes to an extensive cooling over Siberia after the early 2000s, revealing its importance for recent variations of climate over Eurasia. The outputs from 35 coupled models within phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are also analyzed. The results show that the interdecadal change of the SCA is weak in response to external forcings but can be largely explained by internal variability associated with a change of precipitation over the tropical Atlantic. Further analysis indicates that the enhanced tropical convection induces poleward propagation of Rossby waves and further results in an intensification of geopotential height over the Scandinavian Peninsula during the transition to positive SCA phases. These findings imply a contribution of tropical forcing to the observed interdecadal strengthening of the SCA around the early 2000s and offer an insight into the understanding of future climate change over the Eurasian continent. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/10/JCLI-D-22-0494.1.xml

Winter 1878 was terrible. Here you see De Bilt Netherlands. No skating.

An intresting read https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/3/jcli-d-14-00398.1.xml Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is frequently applied to derive patterns and indexes used to identify and track weather and climate modes as expressed in state variables or proxies of convection. Individual EOFs or pairs of EOFs are often taken to be a complete description of the phenomenon they are intended to index. At the same time, in the absence of projection of the phenomenon onto multiple EOFs yielding multiple similar eigenvalues, each EOF is often assumed to represent a physically independent phenomenon. This project analyzed the leading EOFs of the earth’s skin temperature on the equator and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies filtered for atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves. Results show that the leading two EOFs of the skin temperature data—including east Pacific El Niño and El Niño Modoki—frequently evolve as a quadrature pair during El Niño events, even though the first EOF explains roughly 6 times as much variance as the second. They together diagnose the longitude of the SST anomaly maximum, and their linear combination frequently shows eastward or westward propagation. Analysis of the filtered OLR anomalies shows that the first six EOFs each represent Kelvin wave signals, with the first, second, and third pairs representing Kelvin waves characterized by zonal wavenumbers 2, 3, and 4, respectively. This result demonstrates that if a phenomenon occurs across a range of spatial scales, it is described by multiple EOFs at different scales. A similar analysis demonstrates that the Madden–Julian oscillation probably exhibits spread across a range of spatial scales that would also require multiple EOFs for full characterization.

Up to 19c at 850 hPa.

What an exceptional run for the southeasth, and many mor areas of the UK. 25c degrees. I guess this must be close to record values.

If we have a La Nina state in the atmosphere is it than not logical to have more chance for northern blocking in the start of the winter?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mggRl80WzbE&ab_channel=Astrum

An intresting read https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/09/high-confidence-in-evolution-of-enso.html

https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FF6eq_NyXEAAaUlJ.png

Yes we can. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.1005 Northern Europe and the UK experienced an exceptionally warm and wet winter in 2019/20, driven by an anomalously positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This positive NAO was well forecast by several seasonal forecast systems, suggesting that this winter the NAO was highly predictable at seasonal lead times. A very strong positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event was also observed at the start of winter. Here we use composite analysis and model experiments, to show that the IOD was a key driver of the observed positive NAO. Using model experiments that perturb the Indian Ocean initial conditions, two teleconnection pathways of the IOD to the north Atlantic emerge: a tropospheric teleconnection pathway via a Rossby wave train travelling from the Indian Ocean over the Pacific and Atlantic, and a stratospheric teleconnection pathway via the Aleutian region and the stratospheric polar vortex. These pathways are similar to those for the El Niño Southern Oscillation link to the north Atlantic which are already well documented. The anomalies in the north Atlantic jet stream location and strength, and the associated precipitation anomalies over the UK and northern Europe, as simulated by the model IOD experiments, show remarkable agreement with those forecast and observed.

Yep. And we don't see a Scandi anticyclone.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1 Review of El Modoki Index (EMI) Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 It was conveyed by Eastern Mass Weather last month that there is currently no strong signal from ENSO either way concerning the ultimate evolution of the ensuing winter. This was illustrated by referencing the range of seasonal outcomes amongst El Nino Modoki (EMI) Index winter analogs dating back to 1982, which were derived from the EMI forecast issued with the July update from JMA. Summarization and Conclusions In conclusion, there is no compelling evidence in support of a polar vortex that is stronger than suggested by climatology for the winter 2023-2024 season. The fact that this season will feature the easterly phase of the QBO during the ascent towards the peak of solar cycle 25 in a presumably rather robust basin-wide el nino implies a more disturbed polar domain than last season, if anything. And while there remains a slight chance for residual volcanic enhancement of the PV during the ensuing winter, the primary avenue to an intense PV this season is via the cooling of the western Pacific in conjunction with a continued development into an intense el nino, as was the case in the 1997-1998 winter season. This season also featured the easterly phase of the QBO with an ascending solar cycle, but the ENSO forcing was so intense and displaced to the west that it overwhelmed all other factors.

Latest EC winter 2024

Yes it does. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2023080100&fh=5

You can read about the 2019/2020 event in this article https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1005

History indicates that Extratropical Influences Likely to be Key It has been well advertised on Eastern Mass Weather what a crucial role ENSO plays in dictating the prevailing weather pattern across the hemisphere, given that it is the convection in this region that heavily influences both the rosby wave train and Hadley Cell alignment. However, as demonstrated last month, there is a wide range of potential outcomes when said convective forcing aligns itself across the central Pacific, as guidance continues to suggest. The July update from IRI reflected no major changes with regard to el nino, as a strong event continues to be the expectation by ONI standards. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/07/winter-2023-2024-unlikely-to-be-decided.html

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58841-el-nino-2023-2024/page/58/#comments

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-qbo-polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ About the developing EQBO & ENSO.

Well, I'm not a native English speaker, but I read basin wide in his article. And here too -> https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59041-2023-2024-winterenso-disco/page/5/#comments