sebastiaan1973

The Simon Lee version.

Thanks. Very intresting. Coincidentally today -13 october- is the day with the first significant snowfall in the Netherlands after the summer in the last 100 years.

Yep. These seasonalmodels don't have the capacity for calculating the temperature in the lowest layers of the atmosphere. E.g. Anticyclone with inversion.

And this picture.

Thanks to Karel and Paul at VWK-forum. They remind us that the Glosea anomaly is excellent for a SSW like in 2021. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-021-1229-1.pdf Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21. These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes. The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes, which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux, reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to induce the major SSW. The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings, steering cold polar air outbreaks. The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period. The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state. The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in “One Health, One Future”.

The point is, that the coldest sea water is in the east and will probably come to the surface.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/la-nina-cooling-activity-winter-weather-influence-united-states-canada-jet-stream-fa/ CFS-chart for november. Seems to me the coolest waters are to be found in the eastern part. Nino 1+2. Of course they 'should' come to the surface for impact. According to this study a Eastern La Nina & -PDO is 'good' for the winter over here.

Based on september output. We have to wait for ocotober. The latest ECMWF is coming this week.

I guess we are all waiting for the latest Cansips... I'm curious what the seasonal models will come with in October. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips

17,2C, humidity 59%. Outside pouring rain at 10c.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/enso-continues-to-stagnate-as-winter.html

It is from http://New Study Reveals Little Ice Age Triggered By Volcanism - Universe Today

A great read https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-anomaly-atlantic-gulf-stream-forecast-winter-united-states-europe-fa/

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1569806479548452864?cxt=HHwWgMC8uaGrickrAAAA A marked -IOD forecast for the next couple of months, reverting neutral through #winter *my view only* ..November/early Dec could be one to watch with both this set up and a weak to moderate #lanina combining to favour some cold #weather spells ..*my view only*

Quite a good CFS12h run

In the autumn of 2020 Glosea5 overestimated La Nina. i suppose it's doing it again. You can read it yourself in the link below. I think we should keep in mind that Glosea5 overestimated the strength of La Nina in the autumn of 2020. Perhaps it's doing it again. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.1126

or not https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00461-2

https://twitter.com/giacomomasato/status/1566529522106769409 Intresting view of things to come.

Two important studies for coming winter https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/9/jcli-d-16-0376.1.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00382-018-4366-1.pdf

Intresting study for winter 2021 Predictability of European winter 2020/2021: Influence of a mid‐winter sudden stratospheric warming (wiley.com) https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/asl.1126

Do we get a CP La Nina this winter? The forecast for this winter 500 hPa isn't looking that bad.

Oh dear. Our tiny country. Up to 46C. Smashing temp. records. Hopefully this won't come to fruition.

I hope so. Some amazing output by GFS6H. Up to 15cm of snow in the centrum of the Netherlands. For the first time since 1978.