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sebastiaan1973

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Everything posted by sebastiaan1973

  1. sebastiaan1973
    Control and Oper are in the same cluster and take a look how close they resemble. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/enplot?base_time=202112180000&valid_time=202112240000
  2. sebastiaan1973
    It's not a slider. You can see that at the form of the cyclone. It's to round. Such systems don't move quickly.
  3. sebastiaan1973
    For whom? Netherlands? I doubt it.
  4. sebastiaan1973
    The control shows a big problem when the cyclone destroys the ridge and gets connected with areas of low pressure at the Atlantic Ocean.
  5. sebastiaan1973
    What a long period the MJO is in phase 7.
  6. sebastiaan1973
    Cluster 3.
  7. sebastiaan1973
    GFS is by far overrated because of its 4 runs a day and large available data.
  8. sebastiaan1973
    Phase 7 delivers a negative NAO as well.
  9. sebastiaan1973
    Yes at Wetterzentrale. But we have to wait. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/nl/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&time=0&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0
  10. sebastiaan1973
    No, it takes time -7 till 10 days- for impact for us. So, when it reaches COD, this is day 10-14.
  11. sebastiaan1973
    Here they are. Not quite good, but okay.
  12. sebastiaan1973
    https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1470758090408660995
  13. sebastiaan1973
    Even after EC46 of last night? The return of the Atlantic is a generic result of La Nina I guess.
  14. sebastiaan1973
    For Reading. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/opencharts_extended_meteogram?base_time=202112130000&lat=51.43&lon=-1&station_name=Reading
  15. sebastiaan1973
    EC46 is cold for the northern part of the Netherlands
  16. sebastiaan1973
    The shape of the cyclone southwest of Greenland is not good. In this chart it is round, that's not good.
  17. sebastiaan1973
    You mean this one? Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europa 12Z
  18. sebastiaan1973
    Quite a disappointing run. 96h and 240h. We do see some attempts, but there ain't enough 'power' from anticyclones for warm advection from south to north.
  19. sebastiaan1973
    Some cherry picking
  20. sebastiaan1973
    I guess you want northern expansion as well?
  21. sebastiaan1973
    The winds east of the warm advection are to much from west to east. I don't see a powerfull cyclone to create a more potent warm advection. We get stick with a anticyclone at the British Isles/ north-western Europe. 168h ahead is not to much time for improvement to provide a better synoptic situation with better warm advection from south -> north.
  22. sebastiaan1973
    It's temperature.
  23. sebastiaan1973
    Well, we have just arrived in phase 7, so for effect -if any- it takes 7-10 days.
  24. sebastiaan1973
    In my opinion the latest GFS is a downgrade, please notice the shape of the cyclone west of Greenland and the winds south of that. More in a west to east direction, in stead of south to north.
  25. sebastiaan1973
    With the strong stratospheric polar vortex and some degree of coupling it seems to me, the chances for northern expansion are small. I guess that EC46 would show in week 3 high pressure more to the north.
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