claret047

What a horrible day. It looks like we have a few more hours of this to endure and tonight we could have a lot of fog about with all this dampness. Earlier this morning I walked over my lawn to the top of my garden to feed the birds and it was the squelchiest (if there is such a word) I can ever recall and we have lived here since 1972. Yesterday we felt quite festive in spite of the dull drizzly weather as we had two Christmas cards arrive. one of which had been posted by a friend who lives in South Woodham Ferrers on 3 December. Apparently there are at least 100 postal workers in the Chelmsford area either with Covid or self-isolating. In addition my wife went to our local Aldi and as she went towards the checkout to pay for her purchases she noted that their were plum (with pink gin) Christmas puddings in a dump on special offer of 9p. We enjoyed it as our sweet yesterday evening. Perhaps we should have also got the Christmas Crackers we had not used out of the loft and gone the whole hog. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day. Kind Regards Dave

I heard it in Hylands Park, Writtle, near Chelmsford and wondered what it was as it was very loud. Where did it occur?

According to the MAD Thread we will be snowed in on the 20th, but on the 21st we will be outside with our BBQ's as everything will have moved too far west or too far east!!

I would jolly well hope that "rattlers" would be thrown out of a pram. They could kill a baby, although not likely to see any in the UK, unless in a zoo! Agree with you though that the Mad thread is at times insane, but I guess that is why I love it. I find it great to see it ebb and flow twixt joy unbounded to people almost on suicide watch, whilst others try their hardest to troll. There are however also some great, experienced posters on there who adopt a balanced approach. FWIW I believe the models are now picking up a trend to much colder weather by about 20th of the month which could last for several weeks once it becomes encroached with the possibility of heavy snow. Only time will tell if that will be the case, but in the meantime I will enjoy the ride on "the other side". If it doesn't work out as I predict I will not be slitting my wrists as there are much more important things to worry about in these troubled times. The thread and this one are, however. a great means of escaping all the current worries and a means of interest when there is not a lot else we can do without going against the spirit of Government guidance. Keep safe Kind Regards Dave

Lovely charts. Thanks for posting them. Perhaps you could tell novices like me what draws you to the conclusion that the cold spell if it arrives is likely to be of only a short duration. I had always believed that once strong areas of high pressure and the accompanied very cold air in winter time they are very difficult to shift. I am old enough to recall the winter of 1962/3 and the Met Office kept calling an end to the bitter weather, but again and again they were wrong and the very cold conditions remained. Many thanks Kind Regards Dave

Perhaps for us novices you would be kind enough to explain how you have been victorious in respect of weather events that will or will not happen. To my untutored eyes it looks as if the GFS is still going with prolonging our cold spell and indeed intensifying it while the ECM & UKMO indicate a warming up and to some degree a return to Atlantic domination. We do not know which is correct, but can only best guess. I am old enough to remember the 1962/63 winter and the Met Office continually forecast a return to milder weather, but the USA long range forecasts did not and guess which were correct? Kind Regards Dave

No it is monotonous and in Essex.

Thanks MIA & BFTV for making this thread so very interesting, your hard work in providing the information is very much appreciated. A Merry Christmas to you both and other posters on this thread and stay safe in these difficulty times. Kind Regards Dave

Hello again Tom, My prediction for category 9 is 3 January 2021. I trust you and your family have a safe and happy Christmas, and all the best for the new year. Kind Regards Dave

Hello Tom, Thanks for your reminder. Please find my reply re category 8. I will now locate category 9 to complete. Kind Regards Dave

Having read the Model thread I am not sure if I am down on my uppers or up on my downers!

And you live in a basement. Seriously though it all looks very promising from the Big 3 now. I'm really looking forward to see the northerly develop on the charts as the days evolve. It makes really interesting chart watching. Hopefully for once it will fall into place. Kind Regards Dave

Hello Tom, Apologies for being late to the party but it has been manic at home recently And I have only had chance to look, hoping I am not too late. Here are my totally uneducated guesses below: CATEGORY 6 (White Christmas) Belfast - Yes Birmingham - no Cardiff - no Dublin - yes Edinburgh - yes Glasgow - yes Liverpool - yes London - yes Manchester - no Newcastle - yes CATEGORY 7 (New Year's Day) Predict the Max./Min. Temps recorded, during the 24 Hours of New Year's Day, in the South East/East Anglia Region. min -4.7 max 3.2 Kind Regards Dave

Hello there. Thanks for posting the charts. What do the browns and blues indicate please? Many thanks Kind Regards Dave

I got quite excited for a moment as I thought it read Ireland and not Iceland! Kind Regards Dave

If you want to cheer yourself up in the current situation go onto a search engine and type in the following: ulster fry videos now thats what I call christmas Kind Regards Dave

Here in parts of Essex we had quite a bit of snow which settled in the early hours. Next week does not look great apart from high ground for snow and even then it will be in fairly short supply as we seem to be apart from the periphery of the country between areas of low pressure, with fog under lighter winds, especially in the south being a problem and with it being slow to clear suppressing temperatures. Faux cold as some on here gleefully call it. Temperatures will generally remain below average with some night time frosts and with a tendency for the weather to become more unsettled later in the week. Beyond that, although I am far from an expert I do believe it will all be very much on a knife edge and by mid month the colder air will start to make inroads across the North Sea. Kind Regards Dave

Good Morning Tom Re our recent messages between us. Please find my predictions in enbolded text next to reach category above.

Good Morning everyone. A very interesting day yesterday. My wife & I had a weekend break in a caravan up near Hemsby in Norfolk. Yesterday morning started sunny but just before we left to return home at about 10 a.m. it had completely clouded over. We decided to go via Wroxham on the way home and just after we parked there it started to rain lightly, with occasional heavier bursts. In the end as it was so cool (15C) and unpleasant we decided to cut our losses and go home. The light rain continued on and off for about two thirds of the journey home, but as we travelled more into Essex the weather brightened and the rain had stopped. The temperature had risen too with my car showing 22C. It had not rained at all there and the front must have died a death as it went through later with just residual cloud. Kind Regards Dave

Are you sure that it isn't last year's Christmas tree you put up there?

MDR? Please advise those of us not used to such terms. Many thanks Dave

Apologies for being "thick" but does the map indicate a moderate risk of storms or a risk of moderate storms in intensity? Not wishing to be too greedy after the incredible rainfall I experienced yesterday but a repeat today would be interesting. I guess the blob should be about 10 miles southwest to its southern limits for me to enjoy the possibility of a repeat of yesterday's experience. Kind Regards Dave

"51 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said: Very heavy rain up in Chelmsford currently, just seen a video of one of the main shopping centres flooding. And yet here, about 12 miles away, we’ve had barely any rain today, so it’s all very localised" I can testify to that. As my 91 year old uncle is unwell I popped over to Writtle to see him. I left about 4 O'clock and had difficulty leaving his house down the footpath to my car. I then drove the 4 miles to my house in North Springfield which took over 30 minutes. All the local roads and main roads were flooded and meant crawling through the deep water. It was particularly bad at the start of the Chelmer Valley route at the junction with Rectory Road and is not helped by the roadworks currently in place. The intensity of the rain resulted in the worst flash flooding for a number of years. It has now stopped. At least I won't have to water my allotment this evening. It still feels oppressingly humid. The above is a post I made on the Storm & Convective Thread about half an hour ago which I have emboldened to add to the comments from Thunderstruck. After a dry period of about 45 minutes it has just started raining again but not as heavy as earlier, at least not yet. Kind Regards Dave

I can testify to that. As my 91 year old uncle is unwell I popped over to Writtle to see him. I left about 4 O'clock and had difficulty leaving his house down the footpath to my car. I then drove the 4 miles to my house in North Springfield which took over 30 minutes. All the local roads and main roads were flooded and meant crawling through the deep water. It was particularly bad at the start of the Chelmer Valley route at the junction with Rectory Road and is not helped by the roadworks currently in place. The intensity of the rain resulted in the worst flash flooding for a number of years. It has now stopped. At least I won't have to water my allotment this evening. It still feels oppressingly humid.

Hello Ryukal Yes it is raining quite heavily here at the moment but nothing to indicate we will be seeing anything thundery. Kind Regards Dave