aspire27

Is it possible for the ECM and GFS to be different all the way? If so, what forecast can be given, or is that a stupid question? Do they have to be roughly the same?

These two post are very confusing for a newbie..

I dont think the Bristol area has ever been forecast for snow on tuesday. I thought it was wednesday into thursday was our chance as the colder air finally arrived. Why GFS? Covering your back? lol The GFS is the only model showing this......Can all the over models (which are very alike) sunddenly back track completely, would be amazing if they did! And probably put a spanner in model watching completely!

No snow.

Well the GFS isn't backing down at all, if anything the low is even further north Thats it then. Umbrellas at the ready!!!

next set of model runs on their way out... I wonder if that warning will change on the UK METO? Good or Bad......? Another thing..why are people from Gloucester posting on here? I know its classed SW, but its not really.

Oh right...thanks.

When are the next important model runs due out?

Looking at the models the GFS is on its own. This model is currently giving us the rain....all the other models are showing the LP further south bringing a easterly and snow for the south... Hopefully the GFS comes in line with the other models. Problem is lots of people like the GFS and think its consistant.

Totally agree, some complete rubbish posted on here the last 24hrs. More about Stella than the weather.

Well from what I have worked out the models are throwing out varying outputs. I think for North Somerset south there is a chance of flooding next week and further north sleet and snow.

Ok I will ask you again...why do you think the it will snow north of M4 and not further south? Thats all Ive asked you. Its a forum for lots of people to discuss their thoughts..not for you to PM me for a private discussion I do not want with you.

QUOTE PM "Did you have a problem with what I posted? All I said was the latest model runs were hinting at the snow action being further north" No, just would like to know your thoughts on why it would be further north?

Once again, great weather talk here on the South West Cold Spell Discussion.... See attached.....

The current BBC forecast past Monday is all FI. Not worth talking about yet. They ruined our chances by saying heavy snow for the south this morning.......= game over.

Just got on here for a couple of days. Saw a TV forecast for HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SOUTH at 12.30... Just seen another forecast now...SNOW FOR SOME NEXT WEEK...... Just been reading the model output thread........DOWNGRADES again for SW. Might just log off now and look out the window on Wednesday / Thursday... Anyway, dont know what the excitement is again on here, Wednesday is FOUR days away......Fantasy Island again if you ask me.

A lot of people keep harping back to the Feb event - I think Reading copt that this time yesterday. A front coming up from the south west and hitting the cold air. I would love another Feb event but with much colder temps during the day to stop the slow thaw and slushy horrid stuff.

Thank you Pete! Great to hear such a story! Problem is Pete, im no expert but people in the model thread kept relating to 63' when talking about this cold spell. If you go in the modle output thread, you will find its started again with regards for the Fantasy Island charts for new year! Happy Christmas Pete.

Thank you for the reply. It was -7 here too just south of Bristol. It just amazes me how we live on such a small island that the whole of the country never gets effected, your two hours drive from me with totally different weather conditions..anyway As you say with the cold already here, the next cold spell shown on the models might produce something for all of us.

Nobody want to comment?

Newbie question - Didnt we see models like these a week / two weeks ago showing (i quote the above) 'severve outbreak of polar air', and it never arrived in the reliable? All we got was a something very watered down. I presume we look into FI to see new trends and patterns, but going by this week, when i thought it was to get really really cold, again it didnt come off. Just a question - how long did we actually get easterly winds over the last ten days?

I agree. I have listend to so much hype on here (especially in the model section) for the last two weeks about this cold spell. The models kept showing and showing AND showing very cold weather for the WHOLE of the uk....for us here in the south and south west it never arrived. Ok a little bit of snow sunday night from convection in the Bristol Channel but without that all we would of seen was rain. Last week it was all light rain and drizzle. Then a bright weekend. Without sunday nights showers of snow all we would of seen was drizzle and todays rain. Yes the overnight temps have been cold, -7 last night, but -2 or -3 in winter is very common. Some parts of the country did get snow, but not as the models predicted. I have been reading now on the modle thread about another cold shot around new year. People getting all excited about models in FI, come on people these never happen...as we have seen. Some people might slate for this but what the BBC forecasts have been telling us has been spot on. They never ever said about SEVERE cold which so many people kept saying would happen. Ok it showed in the models, but never in the reliable. Come on people....these models are just teasing us. Better off looking at the lamp post, radar, and listening to the TV forecast, not what people say on here.... Rant over. Weather here in Yatton - Rain.

I think it was just rain.

snow in cardiff, temp there 0.9

The current weather is.........disappointing........lets hope it changes to wet snow..