[Model Output Discussion]

an outlier so on it's own - no support - so not likely to come about!

Thank you.

So now looking to continue the theme on the GFS from earlier.

[Model Output Discussion]

The ECM ensembles show that the Operational was about the mildest run until deep into FI . Now on to the 18z .

Sorry could you put some more detail into that so a newbie can understand. I presume this means the latest ECM is on its own??

[Model Output Discussion]

with ice as stubborn as it was a week ago, you needed a chizel let alone elbow grease!!

Please back to the model output.

[Cold Spell Discussion]

with respect, thats nonsense. im the 'mildy' on here and im fully aware that theres a return to cold next week ... winter should be mixed, in fact an ideal season should be mixed . yes i look for heat in summer, why not? is it any more unacceptable then looking for excessive cold in winter? isnt excessive cold un-seasonal even in winter? if you want that why not move to siberia?

You just said exactly what I did from a mildies point of view. A return to cold next week, eh? Thats the first time YOU have mentioned anything about cold

next week. Mild mild mild thats all you have been going on about.

[General Model Output Discussion]

Well I cannot see any real trend in these models. Only yesterday the GFS was going to an easterly. Now it has back tracked.

The temps forecast for my area for the weekend have already been dropped by 4 to 5 degrees (was 10 now 6) and that is not mild. The east IS influencing our weather currently.

Mildies on here think their mild pattern is set in stone just as much a coldie when the models show cold.

This is winter. Winter should be cold in my book, thats why I look for cold. I presume the mildies look for hot hot hot in the summer, its just the same. Nothing worse than non-seasonal weather, if you like that move to tenerife.

[General Model Output Discussion]

I think we must all be realistic this morning and admit it finally looks as though our month long cold spell is coming to an end. We still have quite a lot of winter left and as long as pressure remains high to our North-East there must be a chance at some point for the vortex to relax and further incursions to make their way westwards towards us.

There are so many ups and downs on this thread. The is no continual trend to mild and no continual trend to cold. At the moment the models keep chopping and changing from one to another. We get cold output then mild, and then it switches again.

People are talking as this winter has finished....rubbish.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Saturday a lot colder than first forecast.

Was 10 degrees for Sat in Bristol, now only 6.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

I wonder if this will be the actual temps in the next five days...

Just cant see Bristol being 10 degrees on sat.

And what about next week??

We will see..

[General Model Output Discussion]

I guess it's all over then BOOHOO

Even without the E'ly it would be a fairly cool week with some overnight frosts and the ukmo 12z looks promising at T+144 hours, also the gfs 12z still looks good to go for an easterly next week but if it's over, we have had a nice long freezing spell and maybe it's time for the wildlife to enjoy more temperate conditions.

The models having been indicating a trend now to colder conditions. Something we didnt have 3 days ago.

The ECM has backed away, so what? Wasnt if the GFS that picked up the cold first of all for last week?

A bit of chop and change gonig on (i know that is not a technical comment) at the moment as the models decide on this potential cold spell coming up.

Lets wait and see before deciding on no cold because of the ECM. The ECM has been sticking to cold recently, one run the other way and its all over...not yet its not.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Raining nicely now just south of Bristol

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion]

Been snowing for 13 hours now.

Giving about 2 cm.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Going to have no idea of snow totals due to much of it not settling. Not cold enough yet, not really sticking much.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Yeps.

Shame it looks like not much for us mate.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Temp must of dropped.

Gaps in snow very slowly starting to fill with very small snow cover.

[General Model Output Discussion]

Yes but as I just said sometimes you can't take what the models say in F.I as gospel. Personally when I look at the models I enjoy trying to figure out whats likely to happen and see what errors the models are making. Remember back in Nov 27th when I said an E,ly was on the way for Mid Dec? I was accused of ramping and misleading members and the contents of many posts were similiar to yours above!

If you need to rely on the models then fair enough. However I shall continue viewing the models and adding my own interpretation. For example many think the UKMO +144 might be disappointing but if a +168 existed then the UK would be experiencing a cold SE,ly. Hopefully the 12Z ECM will be similiar to the UKMO at +144 and show this SE,ly at +168.

Spot on. Keep doing what your doing. Very enjoyable for me personally. You got the mid Dec cold SMACK BANG ON.

Look forward to more of your model output analysis. Keep it up TEITS!!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Not very big, but they are dry and powdery rather than big and wet.

Very wet snow. Not settling at the mo. Prob not heavy enough or 'dry' enough.

Let's hope the front stalls right over us in the next few hours! Sorry the rest, real IMBY comment there.

Come on guys whos telling fibs?!!

I think more wet....than powder!! lol

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Anyone notice the 61mm spot value on the 48 hour 12z NAE precipitation around the Taunton environs?

No mate, thats 6,1.

lol

61!! big dumping possible.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

click on precip type

Not being funny dogs32, but the latest BBC forecast shows hardly any snow for your area. It seems to dye away lots when it reaches you.

I did say this last night but you wouldnt have it.

Hope you get loads mate, but just saying what ive been saying!!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Just arrived home in what was initially light snow but is now more moderate/verging on heavy. Settling as well on rooves and cars and filling in gaps on the pavement and grass.

Anyone know why raintoday has changed their radar back to the normal orange?

Whats the temp mate?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Just arrived home in what was initially light snow but is now more moderate/verging on heavy. Settling as well on rooves and cars and filling in gaps on the pavement and grass.

Anyone know why raintoday has changed their radar back to the normal orange?

Hi Michael, im in Grange Farm Road off the mini roundabout. Seems to be wet and washing away here, 300 yards up the road!!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Blizzards in Cardiff, 1 and half inches so far.

1.5 inches? or cm?

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

precip is imminent here.

Dont expect much. Light to a little moderate. Wet and washing away type of snow. Not cold enough at the moment, Bristol will be worse with temps a little higher again.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

Hi James,

Cleeve hill is looking absoloutly stunning from the village. There is still a lot of snow on the hill.I expect the snow will take 'at least' a couple weeks to thaw,unless we have a top- up in the mean-time!

Doubt a couple of weeks with the mild southerly winds in the latest model output!

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

PPN very very weak.

[South West England Cold Spell Discussion:]

This light wet snow doing its best to finally wash away the snow that was lying. Just not cold enough.