BlueHedgehog074

The models do seem a bit gloomy this morning for cold and wintry weather possibilities, at least for low levels areas mostly towards Southern UK parts. The 00Z GEM, however, looks interesting with its cut off heights to the North and I do feel things could get a bit more interesting towards the New Year (or just after). Maybe a chance of a white Christmas itself could still be possibility, too, since it’s ten days away.

I guess it could be since that pretty orange glow does seperate both the purple-blue blobs. Plus Mike Poole seems to think it is. (Do confess to not being an expert about these warming events with still a lot to learn).

Yeah, you may need one tomorrow with the rain, sleet and possible snow the models show. Maybe might be worth looking up some lamp post makers within your area of Scotland, and contacting any within the closest proximity to you. Just then got to hope one of the makers will install a lamp post in time ready for the arrival of tomorrow’s wintry, stormy, weather. Hope that’s of some help.

We’ll definitely let you off with that. A very sweet post that I’m sure legritter will appreciate! With Christmas around the corner (sort of), probably no reason really for us hosts and mods to be too harsh. Posts like yours makes you realise what a great, caring, place this can be. ??

Thought it might be worth adding that although this is the Hunt For Cold Thread, those like @Summer Sun are perfectly entitled to post charts, such as the latest JAMSTEC ones, if they want to. Even if they don’t show cold. It’s true that most people in here are after cold and snow (and that’s fine), but there ought to be room for anyone of any weather preference to have there say in the models threads, whether it’s in this one and/or in the short range/general model threads. Plus, is nice to have some balance in here from time to time, with anyone made to feel welcome. (Sorry if my post comes across as preachy. Not meaning to single anyone out, but just felt it was worth saying ).

Yeah, don’t think snow is possible with above 0*C 850 hPa temperatures (at least not on low ground). ‘‘Tis strange some of the models show snow over some areas with those positive 850 hPa temperatures. Be nice to think they’re over-estimating the mildness of the 850 hPa temperatures and that you, me, and others on here could end up with a longer spell of snow on Saturday! But I suppose one aspect could just be to do with the height! Edit: Then again, what @BlackburnChris mentioned about the timing of it all could be the reason too. I know I can be guilty of taking those precipitation type charts seriously. Sometimes, they’re unlikely to be an accurate representation of the amount and type of precipitation we get.

Was hoping to purchase some Scotland Snow Shield Strengthener solution and use it in Scotland for this weekend. But sadly, the Scottish Weather Shop refused to sell me any, so won’t be able to carry out my evil plan!

I appreciate everyone has there own opinion, but let’s keep this friendly please. Cheers! Also, (and while not everyone will concur), nothing wrong personally hunting for temporary snow events, since even these are still part of cold weather.

Seconded, shaky. The GFS 06Z has the magic -5*C 850 hPa line as far West as Eastern Wales for a time on Friday night... ...therefore maybe enough could air for the front to run into to give a brief transient fall of snow for some fairly low level areas of the West and East Midlands. Particularly Northern parts. Not something to totally rule out. Clearly the higher someone’s elevation and the further North and East you are, the better at seeing more in the way of wintry weather. But even a transient spell of wet falling snow would be (personally), so much more appealing than the whole front being just soggy wet stuff. Settling snow is awesome and all, and it’s what make landscapes look all magical, however falling snow I admit is just as exciting. Just some slight extra Westward shifts and a touch more of a negative tilt to that approaching Low on Saturday could just tip things a little bit more towards something more wintry. Literally going around every cafe in the U.K. clutching at straws. One snowflake even would do, lol! Whatever happens, I suspect some of us may end up sitting next to our windows with popcorn, hoping to see some pretty little white thing.

Both those GLOSEA and ECMWF seasonable forecast charts definitely a lot more preferable than having high (positive) anomalies to our South and Low (negative) anomalies to our North. Could imagine some of the disappointment in here that may likely happen if that was the case. Maybe the prams getting thrown about as well as the toys. Some nice looking charts anyway.

Ar dude, such a mouth-drooling chart at the end of that GFS run this morning! Wish this was for tomorrow and that it maintained itself throughout Christmas lol. And into January and into February and into March. Not bad. I suppose a chance there for the Arctic Oscillation to go into negative territory, should that end up being close to what could happen. (and then hopefully a negative non-Western based NAO and/or more stable Scandinavian block to go with it).

Yeah, that 12Z UKMO yesterday was really interesting with that Scandinavian block putting its foot down on the Atlantic right up to that 144 hour mark. Just got to hope future GFS and ECMWF runs will improve things in the longer term. Edit: some of the runs have at least been flirting with the idea of a Northerly towards Christmas.

Just a brief post, but still some possibilities of seeing one or two rain, sleet, or snow (especially high ground) for places as models continue showing Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic colliding with colder air to the East via the Scandinavian High. Probably likely any wintry weather would be transient during the weekend as the Atlantic generally becomes a little bit more powerful and brings in milder air. But perhaps still enough time for things to alter a little and for the Scandinavian block to squeeze out a bit more power against those devilish dudes out West. Still looks overall the Atlantic will win, in the end. Snow just seems so much more exciting than plain ol’ rain that often occurs from the Atlantic, so it would be cool (personally) for the wintry enthusiasts to be offered something white and wonderous.

Hi P-M, a link to the summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-saturday-summary-151?full

A very fascinating bit of snowfall history, but back on topic some of you, please. I’d really don’t wanna get those shiny keys out and open up the dungeon. Some people could get locked inside.

Speaking about the heart of the Vortex, it’s would probably stop beating should those GFS Stratosphetic warming charts come off like that! Particularly so if they were to somehow improve further. But if not, maybe we’ll just have to feed the Polar Vortex lots of fat, greasy, McDonalds burgers! Then its could be in trouble!

We certainly do.

ECMWF in a Christmassy mood tonight! Nice surprise to see the Scandinavian block next week putting up more of a battle against the big, bad, Atlantic. More pressure put on the Lows trying to reach the U.K from the West. The Atlantic does still sorta win the boxing match (and to be honest, still think the block will lose some of its power, for now). However, the Lows struggle to penetrate far enough East through the U.K, with some of the Low Pressure disrupting and dropping to our South-East into mainland Europe. Even if the cold weather fans have to endure another spell of Atlantic weather, hopefully no chance of this happening soon: But this would do:

Not really the appetising runs I was hoping for this morning I admit. So I confess to building my hopes up a bit too much. Having said that, seeing the Atlantic looking to have more of a role was perhaps to be expected. Though not definite. While there is still time for things to change for the better again for those looking for a more robust Scandinavian High and Easterly winds, do feel it probably won’t have enough power to completely fend of the crazy Atlantic Lows. Just personally how I see things. A possible battleground snow event could still occur later next week during the likely dual between the Atlantic Lows and the Scandinavian block. Albeit maybe mostly for hills over Northern and Eastern areas. Depends how much cold air the approaching Atlantic Lows (if they really do progress far enough East) run into, as well as the Atlantic’s angle of attack. Not everyone will agree, but the possibility of getting served mouldy cheese (Atlantic for those who hate it), rather than getting those Nik Naks (cold and snow) via Seabrooks (Scandinavian block) seems a bit more likely for now. Feel like it really will be the case of the Atlantic Lows (eventually anyway), progressing far enough East so that amplification develops to our West towards the Atlantic and cold then comes down from the North. But even with that, it could be one of those ‘how many times does that happen but never comes off’ scenarios. I’d be happy to be wrong and that the block has more power to it than realised. At least there is likely to be a few settled, drier, days before the possibility of the weather turned unsettled again from the West! ? Meant to have posted this, this morning, but a great post by TeamJo on page 187 about trying not to fret about model output too much and keeping things sensible.

I have one concern. Mouldy cheese arises if the Salt and Shake don’t go under the Skips. Need spaghetti bolognese to show Dominos pizza disrupting sprouts high up in the foodosphere within the Golden Wonder Zone. A slow down in the apple pies would keep Quavers curved up. Sprouts would be doomed. And Pom Bears would go on to attack Canada and Greenland. Seabrooks to deliver triple chocolate cake after Christmas, as bigger pack of Skips sends some Pepper under. Any servings of mouldy cheese shown by 18Z Spaghetti Bolognese Suite in Squishy Tomato World, shouldn’t be much. Eventual outcome to still be yummy cake! Expect the 00Z Candy run to be appetising!

Just a little look at both the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM between 168 to 240 hours, and the Atlantic gets a little bit too close for comfort at times. GFS 12Z GEM 12Z Not intended to be a wet blanket about it. It is just 2 runs from 2 operational models afterall. So would advise not doing anything bad with those toys... yet. A chance of some kind of battle ground rain, sleet and snow event at 192 hours (next Thursday) as both models, more so the GEM, shows some undercutting to the Atlantic Low Pressure as it runs up against colder air to our East. A high risk high reward event could be apparent. But not something that would last long, as the Lows try to break through a bit further East and push away some of the cold. Ideally would need Low Pressure in the Atlantic to be less grumpy, more negatively tilted (asides from that 192 hours GEM), and that Scandinavian High to back far West as possible to the North of the UK to put pressure on its opponent (Atlantic Lows). The separation and merging of the various Lows in the Atlantic to watch for too, as this could have impacts on how they push up against the Scandinavian ridge. Usually it’s better for Lows to our West to be seperated and not be too ball shaped, as they’re more likely to slide better under any blocking to our North-East. Not terrible runs with no super angry purple blob over Greenland/Western Greenland (except for what the GFS shows in deep Fantasy Island). But a case again of a possible big battle between both the block and the Atlantic coming back into play next week. While it seems silly to look for any breakdown to a chillier spell or snap, wouldn’t be surprised if the cold weather fans have to endure another spell of Atlantic weather. At least compared to the Winter 2015/16 and 2016/17, the atmospheric conditions and pressure patterns look setup more favourably for meridional flows and blocked weather at times. Beforehand, the next few days will see some ferocious weather for places at times as models show further Lows in the Atlantic racing Eastwards through the U.K, bringing strong Westerly to South-Westerly winds, rain and showers at times. Particularly over Northern and Western areas. But not necessarily so. A chance towards early next week for the weather to start calming itself down as ridging to the West in the Atlantic migrates towards the UK, providing a break to the wild weather. Maybe some wintry showers for Northern and Eastern areas of the UK for a time before the ridge moves in with the flow turning to a colder North-Westerly and Northerly direction. Although the promise of possible deep cold and prolonged blocking conditions can always get pushed back (or just not happen at all), do persomally believe one day this Winter the cold and snow fans will be on that train to the North Pole.

Definitely seems to be enough support now on the 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA/CPC for Scandinavian height rises to our North-East http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php A cooler/chillier spell certainly on the UK’s menu, especially further East you are, with some of the the Atlantic’s energy (Low Pressure and Low heights) getting steered South into Mainland Europe.

Must admit, not feeling super confident of the likely Scandinavian High Pressure that various models show lasting for long. Just feel there may be a little bit too much power to the West of the ridge to allow that to be the case. Off course though, should models, such as the GFS, continue to show warming events in the Stratosphere, then it does seem like the lower and upper Vortexs’ will find it hard to go on a rampage causing all sorts of grief for the cold and snow enthusiasts. And as some do bring up, a thrashed Vortex can mean more chances for High Pressure and upper ridges to establish themselves at higher latitudes to deliver cold and wintry conditions - providing they establish in suitable places. Even then, having a strong Strastospheric Vortex may not always matter as longs as both that and the Tropopause Vortex don’t work together. In a way, the Scandinavian ridge is still a bit far away to know for sure what it might bring as well as its duration. But some colder (and maybe wintry) weather is possible for a time from the East. It’s something I’m sure that would take some peoples’ fancy. (Even though at the same time there’s a lot of those looking for that dazzling Easterly) We have, however, now decided to supply buckets at the Netweather Pram Store. Just in case things don’t go to plan in the models and we end up with a scenario like the 00Z GEM. At least then, there’ll be something for you to be sick in.

Put it this way, anymore posts regarding people’s favourite month for snow and they will get run through our lovely shredder! We would hate having to use it, as we have had so many problems with the shredder getting jammed up by off-topic posts in here before.

It’s bad, very bad. No Easterly with -35*C 850 hPa temperatures covering the country. Not even any -35.1*C 850 hPa’s. I mean seriously ECMWF, what are you playing at? I have never seen such an outrageous chart before... PS: Welcome back Frosty!