BlueHedgehog074

Come on guys. Let’s stick to the models please. Cheers! We’ve got the Private Message / Sticky Notes features that can be used if you have any problems with members (I appreciate some are trying to be helpful, though some of the stuff was uncalled for!) There’s a possibility we could open up a Technical Model Output thread in the future. It was a thread that was a great addition to the forum. Just we’ve got quite a few model threads running at the moment, but will certainly consider it if people really want it back.

Today is one of those days some would wish the UKMO went out up to 192 hours or something (lol), just to see for sure how that Atlantic Low would behave. Kinda does have a bit of a slider or undercutting feel about it. Suppose it’s crucial to have that Icelandic High exert as much pressure on that devious Low as possible (without the ridging over South-Western Europe getting in the way) to stop the Low causing trouble for the cold weather fans.

Yeah, fairly disappointing when looking at that ECMWF seasonal forecast. Temperatures close to average overall, which is still okay. Would appear the second part of Winter would generally lead to blocking conditions more favourable for cold and wintry weather with High Pressure becoming more and more concentrated further to our North-West or West. More of a back-loaded Winter it seems, but would mean having to wait (though cold and wintry spells earlier on in the Winter are always still possible). Do particularly like the look of both February and March. Not April, however. Having said that, with a few tweaks January and December could become more favourable for colder and blocked conditions. Besides, there are certainly suggestions that blocking conditions could lead to some cold or freezing weather in early/mid December, if it materialises. But if there is a chance this seasonal ECMWF forecast update becomes close to the mark, then could put up with it (Even though it could be a fair bit better for the cold and snow enthusiasts). Even the High Pressure dominated outlook over the U.K in January that it shows, is much more preferable still, than having constant wind and rain via Atlantic Lows rushing in from the West. In fact, doesn’t look like much signs from that seasonal model that the U.K. would be experiencing too much in the way of flat, Westerly, Atlantic drivern weather. And then the fact that the Pressure anomalies for each month are an average, then would imagine there being divergence from this average in cases. Like in December with the seasonal model’s Northern Scandinavian High anomaly, there could be a week where the Scandinavian heights being in control bringing bitter Easterly winds over the UK. Then, one week, the block becomes more of a European High and temperatures being milder. And then another two weeks the High Pressure/high heights becomes more concentrated towards Western Russia with average temperatures over the UK. Something like that anyway. Maybe further updates from that model could improve things again for those wanting lots of freezing cold and snow. Getting favourable Northern blocking for cold and snow in the UK for 3 months during Winter is no easy feat, and is rare. But the fact Meteo-France is going for a Winter a little below average, especially for Northern UK, is something I guess. No gaurantees these seasonable forecasts will end up being spot on, although that can’t mean any of them can’t be close to the mark. They’re useful to have to get some kind of guide what the season ahead could be like. A great video by Gavin must say. Made for an interesting watch! Thanks for posting this.

Agreed. A lot of times filled with tension, suspense and excitement ahead!

The Met Office going for the possibility of sleet showers to low levels tomorrow for the West Midlands. May not be all that exciting, but sleet still better than gloomy rain (personally). And maybe a slight chance if there was a torrential or prolonged shower, could transition more into wet/very wet snow. Still going to be marginal unless on a hill, but maybe some could be in for a surprise.

More information about the Finite-Volume-Cubed model can be found here, https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/fv3/ Some people refer to it as the GFS Parallel. Must admit, found Mike Poole’s explanation with the part about snow, rather amusing!

I suppose with this week, it’ll become the case of window watching and lamp post inspecting to see what falls from the sky. Some of those wintry precipitation charts, such as the ones posted by Snowray on previous page, do make for pretty viewing (even though they’re likely overdone). And wish people would stop binning charts. Got room for no more. Am gonna have to empty the darn thing! ?

You said it! Particularly thanks to those mouth-drooling Greenland/Iceland Highs the FV3 churned out, not giving up on the idea of a longer lasting and deeper cold spell. One of the things that did help to keep those missiles and toys staying put. Can imagine so. The risk of flying teddies I’m sure will become greater towards Christmas as it gets even busier. And I have to agree.

Same here. Despite some up and downs in the Hunt For Cold thread (which, to be fair, will happen with the wild swings of the models), people, mostly, been quite good at keeping toys in the prams.

Yeah, would be nice for things to be a little colder this week to increase chances of possible sleet or snow. But maybe the odd unexpected wintry event - even for some lower levels areas could still turn up, especially should any of the models be under-estimating the chilly conditions (as well as the cold pooling to our East in mainland Europe). If not, might have to accept some places likely seeing just chilly rain as you say, with anything wintry higher up. And even if that was the case, would personally rather have it dry lol. (Though I suppose those higher up would still have something to look forward to ).

You make a great point. I feel some (myself included) sorta get too drawn in by the 850 hPa temperatures on the models, that aspects such as the Wet Bulb temperatures, the 500 Dam thicknesses, precipitation heaviness, flow direction and looking out for favourable dew points to allow snow to fall (0*C or below), gets forgotten about at times. Might have been John Holmes, (but don’t totally remember) that brought up the fact that at least 8 (or more), ingredients on the charts need looking out for to determine whether it’s cold enough for falling snow.

There does seem a possible chance of wintry weather this week. Not the best charts to use, but the 00Z GFS UK Precipitation Type charts going for a wintry mix over Southern and South-Western areas of the U.K. later on Tuesday and into Wednesday this week. Though some wintry showers possible towards the East and North, too. Fairly reasonable bite to the Easterly and South-Easterly winds on both those days, with areas of -5 and slightly colder 850 hPa temperatures in places. Likely though mostly for higher parts still, with it looking marginal (and the fact some places may not get the -5*C (or slightly colder) 850 hPa temperatures). A chance of one or two little surprises with a few snow shields getting dented.

Having had a look (using examples between 200 hours to 360 hours), certainly some interesting 18Z GEFS solutions on offer above. Various ideas as to how the Atlantic Low Pressure handled. Some with it just blowing up in the Atlantic and getting stuck in that area, with ridging pumped up over Eastern UK. Some cutting the Low through East and North-Eastwards over, or to the North-West of, the UK forcing more of a Western based negative NAO pattern to develop for a time on a few (though also a few that have the Low Pressure clearing or dropping to the East or South-East of U.K. with High Pressure re-inforced to our North-West or in the mid Atlantic). Some as well where Low Pressure does continue to slide under some Greenland/Iceland/Northern UK blocking. Particularly on the ones where blocking is particularly strong to our North-West maintaining that Southerly tracking Jet and the Low(s) to the South of the block being fairly weak. Probably one of the ideal scenarios to have for continued cold combined with Scandinavian troughing. Additionally, a few odd ones where Low Pressure seems to be held in the Western Atlantic/Newfoundland area throwing some warmer air up towards Greenland - blocking maintained to our West/North-West in the Atlantic or Greenland area and Low Pressure dropping down to the East from Scandinavia with chilly Northerly or North-Easterly flows over the U.K. High Pressure does stay close by or over the U.K on some of the above 18Z GEFS examples. And what does seem evident is hardly any strong, flat, Westerly, Atlantic drivern weather on many. So I guess even if a break from the colder weather happens this week, seeing a beastly Vortex dominating to our North-West with a flat Jet powering through us is perhaps unlikely. At least according to these ensembles anyway and as longs, I guess, continued battering of the Polar Vortex arises. Wasn’t intending to ramble on like this and some of the above ensembles I may have observed inaccurately , but just getting a better idea of what needs to be looked out for if wanting cold and blocked patterns to continue. (Must get to bed now lol. May you all sleep well )

Will have a look. And agreed. Having it just sit in the Atlantic would just causes problems.

Must admit, I didn’t like that Low Pressure system approaching from the West of the U.K, thinking it was going to be a bad guy piling itself on top of the UK High and usher in South-Westerly winds. But it sure did become a hero at the end going to our East (as you say, joining forces with the Scandinavian Low) with ridging building in behind it in the Atlantic. I like that Low Pressure system. What a good guy it became. Despite it becoming stormy. Thanks, Low! And thanks Greenland blocking. In some ways, the models are like an episode of the London Paddington 24/7 train documentary. When something goes wrong, it goes wrong. And when things go right, it’s all okay, And even when things do go all wrong, it (often) all gets sorted at the end. Just like what happened on both the GFS 12Z and 18Z runs, tonight. (Of course, though, there are a few times where things keep going wrong right out to the end of the runs).

Sorry for delayed reply. All done Yeah, hopefully won’t get too many visits to the pram store; we may just run out of toys and pushchairs! ICON did seem pretty good, though not too sure what to think of the 12Z operational GFS. Seems a bit all over the place in FI. Perhaps not surprising considering the sort of pattern the models are handling. The theme of some of that Northern UK blocking High Pressure ridge sinking to our East into Europe still seems apparent, albeit it takes over a week to do so, plus Low Pressure to the South-West of the U.K looks more squashed and disrupts Eastwards to our South/South-West a little bit better later next week. But a satisfactory run overall (could have been more appealing, but then it could be a lot worse). Generally a chilly looking update.

Hi Evans. Would have been me, but you’re fine to use it (to be fair, was a Google image of a pram store that was edited to put a Netweather spin on things ) Fingers crossed for some encouraging model outputs this evening for the cold and snow fans, otherwise I’d be seriously worried about how covered this thread gets with flying toys... Edit: Just noticed the latest ICON run above. Quite a reasonable start, their.

Just for a bit of fun again, I’ll admit. But the 00Z NAVGEM (yeah, the NAVGEM ), continues with its idea of a cut off High over the Iceland area at 180 hours. Looks a bit of an improvement compared to its 12Z run yesterday. A slightly better positioned Low to the South/South-South-West of the U.K. The whole pattern looks a bit cleaner. Yesterday’s 12Z run at the same time frame below. Fair to say it’s not quite following the GFS (non-parallel) and ECMWF runs of this morning. True what people say, though - still doesn’t seem like any model has got the final handle on the blocking pattern yet beyond the next 5 days or so. Still aspects to resolve such as the handling of the blocking over Northern UK - how much of that ridge might collapse into mainland Europe and how much of that (including ridging from the Azores area) gets cut off to our North-West, and the like.

Our favourite model - the NAVGEM - focuses most of the ridging to our North-West towards Iceland and Southern Greenland next weekend. Seemingly thanks the to North-Eastern Scandinavian Low Pressure dropping some of its lower heights Southwards splitting the Northern UK High into two. Main area of the split ridging pushed Westwards to form that Northern Iceland block! While this 12Z run does have Low Pressure held over South-Western UK, is fairly different from the 12Z ECMWF. Can be easy to dismiss this run since it’s from the NAVGEM, but thought was worth posting anyway. Plus, some models have been playing about with blocking to our North-West. And something that still can’t be ruled out fully, in spite of some of the synoptics the likes of the ECMWF have rolled out.

Would perhaps be one of the reasons why the recent GFS and ECMWF charts haven’t been as good for cold and snowy weather in FI. Can understand some of the frustrations from some in the other thread because of those two runs (though wouldn’t say they are that bad). But at the same time, feel like some people (I can be guilty too), take some of the model runs a little bit too seriously at times and believe they’ll happen. Probably just the fear of having something great snatched from you lol The general pattern does still seem to be there with the weather looking quite blocked. While a cold and snowy spell isn’t certain within the next two weeks, in the shorter range, next week may possibly throw up a few wintry outbreaks with the possible Easterly. Albeit it may be mostly for the hills, but some lower level wintry weather could be possible. Looks like it could be fairly potent Easterly. Just not of the late-February 2018 or November 2010 league that some may hope for. There looks to be further mild weather to come before chillier conditions break through from the East next week. Apart from today with the cloud and patchy, light, drizzle, been liking the last few days with the sunny spells and mild conditions.

Yep, sort of. Does get exhausting watching every single model run come out and the anxiety it causes, despite trying to be positive about it all. Can be so awfully addictive lol.

It’s kinda nice to see most of the toys kept in the prams in here, despite a few toy throwers around. Recorded upto 238 toys thrown out of prams, which is pretty good compared to the 1,000’s that often get thrown out during scary model runs. Let’s continue to keep towls and toys in the prams. Thanks a lot! The GFS may have gone into ECMWF mode in some ways and not look particularly impressive for cold, wintry, conditions in the dreamland. But as some have talked about in the past, you’re likely going to get up and down runs regarding cold and blocked setups like these. The same for warm and hot spells in Summer. It’s pretty much hard to keep getting perfect heavenly snowy runs without some uninspiring runs being thrown in. I think it’s just fortunate that even if the likely upcoming cold spell is more of a brief affair, at least it’s still Autumn (or early Winter depending how you look at it), rather than a setup that’s being modelled for March (or April), or something. And besides, any possible break down may indeed be brief.

A little focus of the various operational runs at 120 hours: GFS 00Z UKMO 00Z: ECMWF 00Z GEM 00Z ICON 00Z They all seem to be in fairly good agreement with Easterly No. 1 next week. (I say No. 1 as further Easterly outbreaks are very possible when you get blocking to the North). For the UKMO, had to use the Meteociel chart for its 850 hPa temperatures due to these being unavailable to Wetterzentrale. While they do essentially show blocking High Pressure developing to the North and Atlantic Low Pressure sliding underneath it to our South or South-East into mainland Europe, there are some differences. The GEM has the Northern UK High a little further South compared to others with higher heights affecting more areas of the U.K. The cold pool to our East over mainland Europe just about scrapes the South-Eastern area of the U.K. with an area of positive 850 hPa temperatures affecting Northern England, Northwards. GEM is known apparently for either under-estimating or over-estimating the cold or warmth of the 850 hPa temperatures. Whether this really is true or not. Though I still feel the reason for it having a more widespread area of milder upper temperatures is due to that blocking High not being quite as far North. The other models runs have either Easterly or North-Easterly flows with areas of -5*C, and slightly lower, 850 hPa temperatures affecting more areas of the UK via the cold pool to the East with none of the 1*C or milder 850 hPa temperatures affecting any areas of the U.K. Those milder 850 hPa temperatures are locked away to the North of the U.K. within the High Pressure centre’s circulation. The 500mb heights are somewhat lower with greens and turquoise colours generally affecting Northern England, Southwards. This particularly so on the 00Z ICON, where even Southern and Central Scotland are affected by the greeny colours. Apart from the GEM, thanks to these lower heights along with 850 hPa temperatures being around -5*C to -8*C in places (especially on that UKMO chart where -8*C’s clip far South-East of England), this would probably provide enough instability for some showers. Some of these could wintry at times, even to some fairly low levels. Possibly some wet falling snow where showers are heavy and where they become more organised. Though they’ll likely be mostly quite light or moderate, with the heaviest ones towards Eastern areas. Would ideally need even lower 500mb heights and 850 hPa temperatures to make the situation even less marginal for snow and to help increase chances of more potent heavier wintry showers. The warmish North Sea temperatures, especially towards Southern areas, may though help in favour of producing some fairly beefy showers. Finally, the exact placements of the Northern UK High and the areas where Low Pressure slides under these, aren’t all quite the same. The likes of the ECMWF, for example, has more of a stretched West to East orientated blocking High over Northern UK with the core of Low Pressure generally more concentrated to the South-South-East of the U.K (the model where High Pressure is also more prone to getting knocked away further East, still with some of it getting cut off to our North). This, though, resulting in more of a direct Easterly flow as opposed to the likes of the GFS, ICON and UKMO (and even the GEM). Low Pressure on these other models (accept maybe on the UKMO) is little more further East over mainland Europe with generally more rounded Highs to our North), with the flow steered more from the North-East over the U.K. Although it’s easy to get excited by what’s on offer further on in these outlooks with some of us unstandably hoping for a more potent outbreak of cold weather to occur, would say the likely upcoming Easterly may provide some wintry interest. Even if it looks to be rather marginal and the Easterly could just be a bit of a dull, gloomy, chilly affair at times. Plus, with some differences between the models at day 5 (120 hours), as illustrated above, then expect some further tweaks to the upcoming week. The 00Z GEM seems a little on its own with the Northern UK High being somewhat more in control at 120 hours. As such, probably the run that’s least likely to happen (but you never know!). The general broad pattern does seem to be their, however. Blocking High Pressure and high heights to our North - Low Pressure and lower heights to our South, with a fairly potent Easterly quite possible over the U.K. Maybe cold and unstable enough for something a little wintry. Which would still be better than nothing. Settling snow however, unlikely.

Thanks! Some of other moderators may not agree, but sometimes using the likes Met Office and BBC forecasts etc as an extra back up for a model discussion post can be useful. Still possible for posts to stay on topic if, again, any chat of the Met Office etc contains model input! (Would only be a real problem if the thread got completely derailed because of it).

Hi, The BEAST From The East! Personally, I think it’s fine to discuss Met Office and BBC content in here, providing the posts that include that content also has model discussion in them. But if the posts are just about the Met Office and BBC only (with no reference to the models in them), then technically they belong in more suitable threads. Sorry for it being unclear.