BlueHedgehog074

While not the most exciting chart for snow and cold that Sky Full posted, and while it is dominated by very low heights to the North and West of the U.K (and over the U.K itself), would at least deliver some wintry showers over high ground with those widespread -4*C to -6*C 850 hPa temperatures (so still better than nothing I guess. True, however, there could be better charts ). Hopefully, though, some proper blocked and snowy express charts will indeed turn up as it approaches Christmas! (For those, including myself, who like the cold and snow). As mentioned above, does look to be generally dry and bright with some good sunny spells at times this week. The best of the dry and bright weather though does, on the whole, look to be concentrated more towards Southern parts with the models showing the pressure generally the highest over Southern U.K. But even Northern areas of the U.K. seeing some drier, brighter, periods at times, especially as renewed ridges of High Pressure out West in the Atlantic try to move over the U.K. But there could still be a possibility that these ridges could get squeezed out further West, instead of being allowed to move over the U.K, from Lows trying to drop down to the East of the U.K allowing a Northerly to break through, but confidence of this happening seems fairly low currently. (Not saying it can’t happen at some point, though).

Have had one or two odd showers this afternoon. Not sure if there are any more to come (not looked at radar), though (sadly) don’t think any of the ones that occurred here had hail in them. I admit I find hail more exciting than just plain rain. Same with sleet!

Probably as expected, not much change this morning, with a less unsettled spell this week still evident on the models. Mostly dry and bright with chilly nights likely at times, though a brief unsettled spell likely in the North mid-week as a disturbance tracks Eastwards over Northern U.K. Both the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GEM seemingly the No. 1 models this morning for keeping pressure high around the U.K. area towards the ends of their runs. The GFS a little bit less so. (Would post charts, but on the way to work, so just a brief summary).

Any weather events where it has rained constantly on Christmas Day. Not the day I’d want to see that sort of weather. Last time I think it happened was a few years back. There was also that Boxing Day snow event (December 2014 I think) that ended up being a bit of a sleety mess, which was kinda depressing.

Feel like I’m cherry picking a bit , but the 00Z ECMWF appears to be one of the best models this morning for keeping High Pressure clinging on over the U.K. right to the end of it’s run. Apart from the odd bit of disturbed weather for North and North-Western areas mid next week, would be generally dry, and I’d imagine warm at times in sunny spells (though varying a bit depending where you are in relation to the high and cloud amounts) and light winds. Nights likely to be chilly. ? Overall though, all models showing some kind of build of pressure next week. Just a question I guess of how dominant it will end up being and how long the likely less disturbed spell will last.

Naughty weather this morning... rainy and cloudy. ?

In reference to @Rocheydub‘s post: I think also the models in general, particularly the GFS, can have a bias of overblowing Low Pressure systems. They probably just overreact to the signals or something. I remember Nick F doing a handy post yesterday regarding Shortwave Troughing phasing/merging with a frontal boundary and how that can help to deepen Lows. Maybe the way the models handle this affects their overall performance of storm modelling, too.

Hoping for a chilly one this year. Don’t mind the first part being warm and Summery. Second half love to be very below average with some frosts and wintry weather. CET guess: 7.7*C.

Admittedly was guilty of saying the storm looked less intense. But fair enough.

Indeed, as Surrey mentioned, the Low Pressure system for Sunday on the GFS 12Z looks a little less grumpy. Would still be some strong winds for places, particularly on the Low’s Northern flank, but certainly less intense than it was on the previous run:

Today’s probably been the most windiest day of Autumn so far. Some rather strong gusts at times. Mostly cloudy at the moment with a few brighter spells. Should the likes of the ICON and ARPEGE be close to the mark on Friday, then that could be bad! (or good if you like strong wind events).

Greetings! A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be. Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds. Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone. Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay). But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions. Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models: ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere: If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread. (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. ————————— Want to view the model outputs? You can get all the major ones here on Netweather: GFS GEFS Ensembles ECMWF ECMWF EPS NetWx-SR NetWx-MR Met-Office Fax GEM GFS Hourly Model Comparison Global Jet Stream Stratosphere (Link to previous thread): —————————— Thanks all!

With all the eventful weather that’s likely to come with Autumn showing more of itself, will be locking this fairly shortly and unravel a new thread to continue your discussions of the charts. (New thread):

Gosh, that 18Z GEFS ensemble member No. 1 looks particularly scary! Would definitely get thrown out of the galaxy if that happened. Going to be interesting to see what both the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF show. I suspect that bad boy will still be showing. But who knows! ?

Looks like a dual between the GFS/Parallel F3V/ECMWF vs UKMO/GEM/ICON. One of the teams is going to end up with egg and bacon on their faces! (But then a half-way solution with a partly stormy Low is always possible for Sunday).

The GFS 12Z run certainly seems to be continuing to have its obsession with that naughty Low for Sunday: Along with a biggish temperature gradient and a clash in airmass systems (using 850 hpa temperature chart as an example): One of the aspects as some people say helping to inject power into the Low Pressure system. The fact the GFS doesn’t wanna discard this beast is definitely starting to get a little worrying, although I still can’t help but think it’s over doing things. And although probably less of a focus at the moment, I’d love to see the likes of the GEFS 06Z ensemble mean and ECMWF 00Z High Pressure setups with the Azores ridging influencing our island next week occur, as one or two more spells of Summery weather would be welcome before Autum stamps out Summer for good. There could be trouble if not. The High Pressure setups shown on the likes of the ECMWF etc quite likely depending on how the storms behaves during the weekend (if we get one), and how much the Azores or Atlantic ridging can deflect the Lows away to the North of it. Always a possible chance the Jetstream could prove to be a little too powerful and flatten out any ridging to our West in the Atlantic, with more of a changeable Westerly flow continuing. (Though hopefully not). Edit: In the meantime, looks like there will be further disturbed weather to come during the next few days with Low Pressure to the North West of the U.K. bringing further spells of wind and rain for places, especially over Northern and Western parts.

Indeed! Has to happen at some point. Even tonight and into tomorrow morning looks (rather) stormy.

What a villianous Low Pressure system the GFS 12Z is showing for Sunday. While the odd windstorm or two wouldn’t bother me, would not want that naughty boy to come off! No support from the ECMWF 12Z. Probably the usual case of the GFS over doing Lows. But if it does come off, I’m gonna go into the Atlantic and beat it up!

True, but to be honest my post was about hoping that the ECMWF has the best handle on the situation not that it actually does.

Would like to think the ECMWF has the best handle on the situation since when storms get intense, they can have a tendency to quickly take a left turn and head Northwards. Plus would give those who love the heat another slice of Summer!

Not sure if this counts. But Summer 2007 with its soggy conditions lead to quite a reasonable September. I’m pretty sure the first half was mostly dry and rather warm with High Pressure centered over the U.K. at times. I remember on my first few days back at school there was a lot of sunshine about and it didn’t feel cool. Can’t recall how warm it actually was though. But the second half of the month I think was mixed and cooler, especially the further North you were, with Low Pressure mostly in control. Would probably have to check the CET records, but think it was a little above average overall.

He he hee! Probably should have included an option of “Terrific Summer that was very, very, very, very nearly the best one in Space!”

Gosh! Hope you were about to stay safe. Kinda wonder what it must be like to witness a storm that drops massive hail. Never had a storm that’s dropped hailstones any bigger than about a cm or 2(ish). Just thinking about it, don’t think we had any showers or storms with hail in them this Summer. Maybe except for the odd tiny bit. Hope next Summer will see a marked improvement in thundery weather.

Overcast too, but feels quite cool and breezy. Temperature around 15*C.

September - Like a few others, a mostly warm and settled month. Second week of September would be baking hot with long drawn winds all the way from Africa and temperatures reaching 32*C. Even Northern areas would see temperatures reaching close to, or around, 30*C. But would fairly quickly break down into some extremely powerful thunderstorms with large hail and torrential downpours. Some burgers and meatballs mixed in with the rain and hail too. 3+ lfpm (lightning flashes per minute). There would be one or two odd brief chilly spells with some very potent unstable Northerlies offering showers of heavy rain and hail. And some morning ground frosts with patchy mist and fog. On the whole, it would be a sunny month. ? October - Starting off very warm with Southerly winds and sunny skies. Temperatures ranging between 25 to 30*C in the South, and 23 to 28*C in the North during the first week. Things cooling down significantly during the second week with winds quickly backing from the North and North-West. Some very squally cold fronts with rain so heavy, there would be enough evaporative cooling to allow for some backedge sleet and wet snow to fall to some fairly modest levels. And not just in the North. Though the Northern hills would see a good covering. Nights very chilly with minimum temperatures getting as low as -3*C and the weather being blustery at times with some Autumnal storms. One storm would provide wind speeds peaking 85 mph over wide areas of the U.K. Warming up again towards the end with long sunny spells, though nights would still be cold with some ground frosts in places. On the 29th, a very strong blocking High Pressure system would be established in the Northern Atlantic allowing freezing air to be dragged down all the way from the Arctic. The U.K. would see its most potent Northerly flow it has ever had in October. The air would be so unstable with lots of little disturbances that hail and snow showers would be widespread. The flow being strong enough for blizzards in places. Maximum daytime temperatures no higher than 2*C in the South and 0*C in the North! By Halloween, everywhere will see a covering of the white stuff. Winds will have died down and there would be thick fog in places on Halloween. November - The first week would see a strong High to the East over mainland Europe with warm, or possibility hot, conditions. A very unusual super deap seated Southerly flow will ensure some temperature records are broken. Temperatures peaking to 28*C in the South and 26*C in the North. But despite the flow being from the South everywhere would see wall to wall sunshine - even in the West! A breakdown from the South-West will lead to some spectacular storms with torrential downpours of rain, hail, burgers and meatballs. A cooler second week with some spells of heavy rain and torrential showers of rain and hail. One or two nights cool enough to allow a light ground frost in places with one or two misty mornings. One or two strong Atlantic storms with some intense cold fronts too. Then a mixture of cold and mild days in the third week, but mostly dry and sunny with morning ground frosts. And patchy early fog. Though thick fog would linger for one day that week. Last week will see winds turning to the East and North-East with Low Pressure over Southern UK. Cold and cyclonic. Everywhere, even in the West, seeing hail, sleet and snow showers as well as longer spells of heavier snow. Especially from disturbances in the East and from Atlantic fronts trying to bump up against the freezing air. Eastern areas seeing up to 2 foot of snow by the end of the month. Central areas seeing a foot with Western areas seeing similar amounts.