BlueHedgehog074

In some ways, would probably agree. It’s just trying to get that right balance between keeping things running nice and smoothly in here, yet not being too hard on those excited by the charts that’s on offer. I think sometimes we perhaps can be a little harsh, with this being the Hunt For Cold thread and all. It’s understandable for people to get all ecstatic when cold and snowy weather breaks loose on the models and would hate to ruin the mood. As longs as there’s no rude/bad behaviour and that posts don’t stray too off-topic, I feel it’s fair to consider everyone the room to express there excitement, thoughts and opinions on here. There is obviously the other Model threads that can be used for more general discussions of the models and for those who prefer something slower paced. We sometimes wonder if it’s worth opening up a Model Moans, Banter and Ramps thread again for people to let some steam off in, and to merge the Hunt For Cold thread with the general discussion Model thread. But we’ll probably see how this current setup continues to go for now! (Unless I suppose we get enough requests from people to change the structure of how things are done in the Model area. Maybe even start up a poll about it someday).

They both must be hanging about in the same pub! Indeed! Not many people browsing the thread, which is quite a surprise. Some perhaps hiding behind sofas. ?

Even though the 12Z ECMWF backs Low Pressure to the South-West of the UK at 168 hours on that chart, some -5 or -6*C 850 hPa temperatures do seem to cling on over Southern UK areas, so maybe some possible wintry weather around still for some places in the South. Especially over high-ground.

Yeah, guess that’s true lol!

I’m guessing that chart suggests temperatures over the U.K would be around average with the lack of positive and negative temperature anomalies over that area. Just the fact it has the whole U.K covered in white. (Or us being buried in snow )

Doesn’t get used often, probably mostly due to it not being the best performing model. However, the NAVGEM 12Z is an example where, although the Low Pressure system to the West of the North-Eastern UK blocking High Pressure still lifts away Northwards and merges with the other Lows, ...we end up with this at 180 hours: Still fairly far away from perfect for those wanting to take a ride on the Polar Express train. Though perhaps some possibilities for something more wintrier and colder to develop. The blocking High over Northern UK a little bit too close to let the real cold in from the North-East around that time-frame. But a different take from the 12Z ECMWF - the High is orientated more favourably, aligned South-West to North-East to our North with Low Pressure over Southern/South-Eastern Mainland Europe keeping the blocking High propped up. I suppose it would depend how that ridge in the Atlantic and the Lows to the North-West of the 2 High Pressure areas would behave. Maybe if the run went out further, that deeper upper cold pool to the East of France could head further West towards (Southern) U.K. It is just one run and not worth worrying too much about, since I imagine things will keep chopping and changing. An even if an Easterly with sleet and snow fails, will at least be looking forward to some drier, more settled, weather (along with likely morning frost and mist) however long it lasts. Plus, other chances for wintry weather is always possible as we head further towards Christmas and into the New Year.

After the great disappointment of 2012 with the failed ECMWF Easterly, being cautious for now. Some pretty charts though, despite snow looking marginal. However, charts such as those from the 00Z ECMWF would probably be cold enough for some sleety stuff to this level.

Considering the sort of charts that are starting to appear, and since it’s getting closer to the crazy season, it’s time to start re-opening up this store. Might also be worth saying that your access to this store will be banned if we see lots of bad behaviour from you in this thread during Winter! Just an advance warning...

Ar lucky! If only iPhones, Samsungs etc could last that long, lol.

Thanks Midlands Ice Age! Ar man, hopefully another time for you. Was pretty incredible to see such structures.

Ar, that’s just typical! Darn phone batteries!

Was a brief shower here recently, but otherwise been dry. Did feel pleasant out in the sun. There was some interesting cloud structures of the shower when walking through Sheldon Country Park.

Some pretty nice CFS runs their! If the Atlantic was to make more of an influence and that (some of the) models might be under-estimating it, may the Atlantic just pay a brief visit. On a personal level anyway (but I appreciate some may want it to be more of dominant force). Suppose really, there’s no guarantees how long any blocking we have will last. Clearly it’s not impossible it could be more of a shorter-lived affair than what it first seems. Still likely, at least, this week will become more settled for places, especially for Eastern parts, with a build of Pressure to the East of the U.K.

Yeah, the North-Western Europe area would say seems the favourite place for now for the High Pressure. The models do appear to hint at that. It’s possible that Beast may not be too far away! Guess it will depend for sure how that block behaves. And I guess you could say that, lol. Not just an exit from Brexit, but the models would have us believe we’ll be leaving the Atlantic! (At least for the time being ).

Using the 144 hour samples from various operational models, and they do all seem to shake there hands with each other regarding a more settled picture developing. High Pressure influencing the U.K from the East vanquishing the evil powers of the Atlantic Lows! 00Z UKMO 00Z ECMWF 00Z GEM 06Z GFS 00Z ICON Some do have the Scandinavian/European High Pressure a little further East than others, especially the GFS and ICON. Essentially, however, an outlook free of the wet stuff! With the flow looking to be between the South and East, probably quite sunny at times in places too with a flow over a short(ish) sea track off the nearby continent. And helping to raise the temperatures to some mild levels during the day. An example from the 06Z GFS for next Saturday and Sunday daytime. But nights likely to be chilly. And providing the flow is free from much windy conditions (does look as though the flow will be quite slack at times with the isobars fairly spaced out), then mist and fog is possible for places. There’s always chances that the Eastern UK block could end up getting knocked away further East as it tries to ridge Northwards from the South-East of the U.K in the next few days, but this seems unlikely. Support for the European block to settle things down for the U.K is high! Sorry Atlantic (and your wind and rain), but it looks like you’re gonna lose! For those areas, such as parts of Wales and some North-Western UK spots that have had particular problems with flooding, it will provide a relieved break!

Just to add, the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the CPC/NOAA continuing with its very positive height signal over Scandinavia, supporting the idea of blocking to the East/North-East of the U.K. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php While the chart does have negative anomalies in the mid and Western Atlantic with a slack South to South-West upper flow over the UK, it’s possible the Atlantic trough may stay far enough away to cause much trouble. Compared to recent days, probably enough encouragement to suggest the weather becoming more calm and generally more settled for the UK.

Expect the underneath of beds and the behinds of sofas to be occupied as the scary GFS 00Z run rolls out.

Looks to be further spells of wind, rain and showers for places in the UK for the next few days. Low Pressure taking charge to the North-West of the U.K. 00Z GFS used to illustrate this. Compared to the last few days, the Atlantic Low that has been stalling in the Atlantic, does penetrate a little bit further East, pushing our favourite (or not-so-favourite) Eastern UK blocking High somewhat further East. The worst of the unsettled conditions being around North-Western parts of the U.K. and will be the coolest in those areas. Some brief ridges, especially next Tuesday as shown on the last chart above on the 00 GFS, will help bring some brighter breaks between the rain and showers. Though South-Eastern areas probably benefitting the most from this. And the area seeing more in the way of less-cool/milder conditions at times. Then, this is where things start to heat up again. Using the likes of the GFS, ECMWF and GEM at 192 hours, the blocking comes back for revenge over and to the East of the UK. 00Z GFS 00Z ECMWF GEM Around that time-frame, would say, generally, both the ECMWF and GEM have the Scandinavian High Pressure being the most influential towards the U.K. It would be dry and mostly settled, especially towards Eastern parts. And with the flow quite possibly being slack at times, some mist and fog at night too along with some frosty weather. There are questions as to whether the Eastern UK block can migrate Westwards and become more concentrated directly over the UK, or just to our West in the Atlantic (or possibly around Iceland or Greenland - though don’t feel there is much confidence of that happening. At least not yet). Would help for the blocking to migrate as far North as possible over the U.K. or Scandinavian area. And the blocking High Pressure also being place favourably to bring lots of vertical Warm Air Advection towards the Pole via long drawn Southerly winds (bit like what some mentioned earlier) to give the Vortex a big smack! Otherwise, failure for the block to get far enough North and there could indeed be a risk of the Atlantic stamping out the block. Particularly should any Lows in the Atlantic fail to show much of negative tilt to them. Will depend how things continue to develop in the next few days or so. For now though, it looks like a battle between the two forces will re-emerge next week.

Temperature-wise, those maximums of 16 to 18*C could almost be passed off as a (very) cool Summer’s day. Pretty incredible if some of those ensembles came off. (I admit though I’m looking forward to a colder end to the month (should it happen)), but some mild or very mild weather before-hand would be fine, too).

We have come to the rescue and fixed the link! ??

Ar man! Supposed to be going to Wales this week (Cardiff area), so personally do hope it doesn’t turn out to be as soggy as it seems on that chart! Appears to be a problem sometimes when you get those stalling Lows out in the Atlantic with rain bands being slow to shift and clear. Even a cold, dry setup would be (far) more preferable than what’s coming up this week.

The ECMWF seems to be fairly consistent with High Pressure becoming more concentrated over, and/or to the South of, the U.K towards the end of its runs. Examples of both runs today between 192 to 240 hours: 00Z ECMWF 12Z ECMWF While both runs do exhibit some differences (Low Pressure over Northern and North-Western UK penetrates a little bit further East on the 12Z run), both have Low Pressure that digs South in the Atlantic earlier in there runs lifting away further North allowing High Pressure to build over the U.K/Southern UK. Mostly dry and settled, more so for Southern areas, if something like this was to come off. Something that could become a trend (which a number of cold and snow fans I doubt would like), should the the likes of the ECMWF continue with this sort of idea. Still far away and could change - there’s no guarantees that the Atlantic and its Westerlies will break through, particularly for Northern parts of the UK, after this upcoming week. But feel it could be a possibility. (Clearly could as easily see more in the way of undercutting and disruption to those Southerly tracking Atlantic Lows next week with the Eastern UK blocking High being pulled back further West towards Greenland or something. Or perhaps the Eastern UK High may indeed just take a super duper long nap over Europe/Scandinavia.

Yeah true! Must be all that freezing weather. Had to include a little U.K mark on top of the illustration over our part of the world, but even that text is quite hard to see, lol.

Regarding @BruenSryan‘s post, this would be the sort of 500mb anomaly you would need to see for some proper cold and wintry conditions for the UK! ‘Tis important to see a trough of Low Pressure pushing well East into Mainland Europe to our South to help squeeze some polar bear-like weather Westwards towards the U.K. Edit: And let’s keep this place friendly please. Thanks!

Yeah, it is. A lot of thought put into his posts!