BlueHedgehog074

Must admit, not feeling super confident of the likely Scandinavian High Pressure that various models show lasting for long. Just feel there may be a little bit too much power to the West of the ridge to allow that to be the case. Off course though, should models, such as the GFS, continue to show warming events in the Stratosphere, then it does seem like the lower and upper Vortexs’ will find it hard to go on a rampage causing all sorts of grief for the cold and snow enthusiasts. And as some do bring up, a thrashed Vortex can mean more chances for High Pressure and upper ridges to establish themselves at higher latitudes to deliver cold and wintry conditions - providing they establish in suitable places. Even then, having a strong Strastospheric Vortex may not always matter as longs as both that and the Tropopause Vortex don’t work together. In a way, the Scandinavian ridge is still a bit far away to know for sure what it might bring as well as its duration. But some colder (and maybe wintry) weather is possible for a time from the East. It’s something I’m sure that would take some peoples’ fancy. (Even though at the same time there’s a lot of those looking for that dazzling Easterly) We have, however, now decided to supply buckets at the Netweather Pram Store. Just in case things don’t go to plan in the models and we end up with a scenario like the 00Z GEM. At least then, there’ll be something for you to be sick in.

Put it this way, anymore posts regarding people’s favourite month for snow and they will get run through our lovely shredder! We would hate having to use it, as we have had so many problems with the shredder getting jammed up by off-topic posts in here before.

It’s bad, very bad. No Easterly with -35*C 850 hPa temperatures covering the country. Not even any -35.1*C 850 hPa’s. I mean seriously ECMWF, what are you playing at? I have never seen such an outrageous chart before... PS: Welcome back Frosty!

Nope, been pretty much stuck in the no weather club lol... until today with some very heavy rain. Interestingly enough, @Polar Maritime recently posted in there. In a similar situation to you with some sunny breaks in the clouds. Rain shield back up and running! (Edit: rain shield starting to fall apart again).

The sun has recently come out to play, after a spell of very heavy showery rain earlier.

Thanks for opening up a new thread @Mapantz. Nice thread. Quiet in the Midlands thread, so thought I’d sneakily post in here. Let’s hope this December (and the Winter in general) can produce some white goodies for the South-Westerners! As for the current weather, this is what I think of it,

One thing that would seem apparent is should the amplification of High Pressure around the Atlantic area come off (which looking at both the operational models and those mean charts, is possible), then could at least see more in the way of settled conditions over the U.K. Great for places, particularly Western parts, that have had flooding troubles. Off course, though, will depend exactly where the possible Atlantic ridge ends up. But is likely it could end up being close enough to the U.K (or maybe directly over it) to dry things down a bit.

Yeah, it must have done.

Looks like the GFS has gone to the pub early this evening! Definitely awesome to see. Edit: In fact, it’s evolution looks similar to that 00Z GEM with that stretchy amplified High Pressure in the Atlantic.

Looks like this morning’s 00Z GEM run may just do the same thing too. Swiftly develops amplification in the Atlantic towards the end of the run with the Western UK High getting sucked up North. Colder air draining down from the North and North-East with the Atlantic terminated. Looks like the amplified High Pressure system may poke its way towards Scandinavia if the run was to go out any further. Still may be worth keeping the sledge locked away in the shed (or wherever it’s kept) for now until confidence increase further regarding this sort of set up. Not bad anyway.

Indeed, knocker. Maybe worth taking more notice of when that time frame gets closer, but as you say, still too far out to bother about much. Yeah, my observation regarding that 00Z ECMWF and its track of that Low was probably off the mark to be honest and I probably could have explained it better. Just had a quick look at the run before having headed out earlier.

Still room for it to change, but does look like models, such as the 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF, don’t track that small Low from the South-West early next week as far South as it did previously. Nor does that little cyclone seem to track as far East through the U.K (more towards the Western side of the island), resulting in milder 850 hPa temperatures getting dragged further North through the U.K from the South. The chance for something wintry for the Midlands next Wednesday looking less likely (though again, some adjustments could still happen).

Sensible model discussion please! Other places/forums to talk about girls, hot guys, etc.

Just my personal opinion, but not feeling confident of anything particularly cold occurring within the next week or so. The NOAA anomaly charts posted both here and by John Holmes on the Hunt For Cold thread don’t really support it (accept for the possibility for some cooler weather more from the West rather than the milder South-Westerly direction at times. Though expect Northern areas would be the coolest in that sort of setup). Just feel, however, the modelled blocking to the North, especially towards the Arctic, will unlikely to be far enough South for the cold and snow fans to benefit much. Obviously things can change and having an Arctic High can help dent the Vortex and maybe lead to some alluring opportunities further along Winter’s footpath. But just seems like the Atlantic, at the moment, has a little bit too much power to allow much in the way of favourable ridging to develop for cold and snowy weather. Maybe Northern high ground seeing some wintriness on occasions and a slight chance of a more widespread wintry event early next week. I think it’s also the case sometimes, some of us have our expectations set too high. It’s true really that seeing snow before Christmas, unless possibly on high ground to the North, is uncommon. Same for Polar Express quality Easterlies. They don’t happen often in the U.K. Despite that, feel like some, not necessarily on this thread, are being a little too eager to dump their teddies from the pram, even though I appreciate it’s a frustrating time for some, currently. I’d be happy to take a mild and dry spell if nothing particularly wintry turns up in the next 2 weeks. It’s just as well cold and snow isn’t the only weather type we’re restricted to (but nothing wrong with people liking it ).

Maybe a possible rain, sleet and snow event next Tuesday for Central areas of the U.K on the 12Z GFS, as that shallow Low from the South-West bumps up against the colder air further North. (No doubt, it could look a bit different again on the next run, but just an observation).

Looking at the likes of the 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GEM, it seems as though more of a West-North-West to East-South-East jet stream could develop for a time later next week. An aspect to encourage Atlantic Low Pressure system’s to our West to dive East into mainland Europe and pull the South-Eastern UK High Pressure back out West. That possible area of cut off heights developing to our North/North-West helping out with this too. Something that would put the general mild South-Westerly flow back for its nap. Even if it may only be temporary. Consequently more of a cooler theme for the UK, especially Northern areas.

Yeah, must admit that featured rocked! Can only assume one of the admins disabled it possibly due to what happened yesterday with some of the drama of whether that ECMWF (or GEFS?) mean chart was showing an Easterly or not. Either that, or perhaps it was to save server space and make the site speedier. The latter is usually one of the reasons it gets disabled. Especially if a cold spell is looming and the forum gets a blizzard of users. Though then again, with not much signs of anything that cold for the next few days, that reason would seem to be unlikely. May be worth asking Paul (though I might just bring it up with the moderators/admins). Would be nice to see that feature get unearthed again soon, but suppose it’s up to the admins, really. Edit: Still not definitely sure if it’s the case, but after enquiring about it, there’s suggestions that the user viewing list at bottom of threads gets automatically shut off when busy. Although I’m not sure that would totally explain why we could still view the user list on the build up to that Easterly a week or two ago when the forum was busy. Will keep this updated if I get any further clarification.

The drunken GFS (18Z) certainly brings the battle back between the Atlantic and the block! Albeit the Atlantic loses right at the end. Lows being squashed and disrupting over Southern UK with an Easterly feed. All change I imagine on the next run. However, if support for this suddenly gathers pace, it could be worth paying more attention too. Particularly as their may indeed be possibilities for blocking (whether favourable for snow or not is indefinite) to re-establish sometime next month.

Personally, I probably would have left the posts unhidden as I didn’t feel there was anything too wrong with them really. (I guess us admins/mods/hosts all see things a bit differently at times and doing what they feel is appropriate). But maybe it might just be best to drop the Easterly debate. Thanks guys!

Have unhidden Steve’s post for now, what with it having being edited. But remember guys, there are ways to respond to someone you disagree, or are annoyed with, without being rude. Cheers! And on we go with the model output.

Does looks like it. The High Pressure assassinates the bunny on that GFS run (264 hours). I like bunny rabbits, but don’t mind that blue and purple one getting torched to death by the ridges! (Also let’s do keep this thread free from bad behaviour please, as there has been a fair bit of bickering tonight. Thanks!)

Will got for 4.5*C please and 70mm of rain/snow. Do feel it will be mild or average at first. Cold with heavy snow on Christmas Day - even South of the M4.

After having a little break, doesn’t look like too much has changed. A retreat from the models clearly didn’t work (lol). Looks as though that evil thing - the Atlantic - will be breaking through from tomorrow bringing wind and rain to places. They’ll be no escape! Worst of the conditions would likely be over North-Western parts where the devilish Lows will be in the most control. I suppose not so evil, however, if you’re someone who hates the cold and prefers the Atlantic. Plus, at least in the nearer term, it looks like a mixture of Tropical Maritime and Polar Maritime flows - the latter particularly true as Lows try to get a little further East and bring in some chillier air from the West or North-West at times with wintry showers over Northern hills.

That certainly looks encouraging lol. Just one aspect that would be needed to carry the Low Pressure(s) further South.

Feel a retreat from model watching is needed. At least for a few days anyway. It’s just become too fatiguing keeping an eye on every run and it occupies too much time, especially with that disobedient cyclone in the Atlantic that most charts show could break through next week. Although there are variations as the models handle this. Do feel there’s enough evidence to suggest the Atlantic coming back - the 12Z ECMWF, for me, looks unappealing with Low Pressure racing past the UK like a Great Western Railway train in the dreamland timeframe. But there may still be enough room for the Atlantic to become less of a feature, and/or Low Pressure not breaking through further East at all. I almost wanted to throw my large toy la-la out of that pram, but think I’ll hold on to it for now. Maybe might be in for a surprise after a little break from the maddening charts. The next few days the models seem to agree to a continued theme of blocking to our North and Low Pressure to the South, with some further spells of showers or longer spells of rain in the cool Easterly to South-Easterly flow. Mostly for Southern UK areas, although even these areas could see some brighter spells at times. A chance of some frost and mist at night, particularly over Northern areas where the Northern UK High would be more influential. Just remember though, any naughty behaviour, name calling or constant off topic posts, and we have a nice, dusty, dark, basement full of cobwebs and spiders we can lock you up in.