BlueHedgehog074

The 06Z GFS is starting to come out (and it’s true that the ECMWF shows one), but: 0Z GFS (GEFS) Perturbation No. 16! Also, having had a little look at the 00Z GEFS postage stamps, Perturbation No. 1 shows quite a chilly Northerly around a similar sort of time (Tuesday 30th October). While it is far into the run with some varied solutions to be expected, a fair few do show some kind of High Pressure in the Atlantic (some amplified, too) with some keeping the High over the U.K. Not to be taken too seriously at that range, but cool to see.

Just don’t order P16 off from eBay - it may never arrive...

Fair enough. Probably won’t quite come off exactly like that. The 12Z ECMWF, though, very similar with its positioning of the Atlantic High Pressure for Monday. A 1045mb High - just like the UKMO! (Albiet the High is a touch further West on the 12Z ECMWF than it is on the 12Z UKMO for that day).

Would have thought it would have stayed dry for your location if that UKMO chart came off considering how strong the surface and upper High is. (But then, I’m not from Staffordshire so may be wrong).

Not much change from the GFS 12Z up to 120 hours (run still coming out): To be expected since it’s the next 6 days. Good agreement, at least, in this timeframe for High Pressure to scare away the Atlantic Lows keeping the U.K. mostly dry and settled. The odd rain band and a few odd showers likely to give Northern and North-Western parts of the UK some wet stuff at times. A more widespread area of rain may affect the U.K. during Sunday as the models show a wave feature from a passing Low Pressure system to the North tracking Eastwards. (Again using the 12Z GFS as an example): But a good chance the rain band could fragment as it tracks South-Eastwards through the U.K. Certainly in sunnier, brighter spells, during the day, can imagine it would be very mild or warm at times during the next few days, especially towards the early weekend when the flow turns South-Westerly for wide areas of the U.K. And maybe beyond depending if High Pressure can maintain its control over, or close to the West of, the U.K. While nights are likely to be cool, especially during periods where the High is concentrated more towards Western U.K, is like Summer still doesn’t want to let Autumn win for good without wanting to dig its paws into it! Using the 120 and 144 hour charts, the 12Z UKMO shows a similar story to the 12Z GFS: ( Also, as posted above by Weather-history, where the High does look powerful) Only difference is, the High Pressure system is a bit more suppressed and a little less rounded and pronounced than it is on the GFS at 144 hours. Still pretty much the same sort of theme. While it ain’t impossible for models to show disagreements within the 6 day range, looks to me overall a generally settled outlook, particularly for the South, with High Pressure being a strong ol’ thing, being the No. 1 favourite.

Come on guys, let’s keep this thread friendly please. Cheers.

Couldn’t resist hacking this (@Paul‘s) thread to add a banner at the top of his original post. Edit: something thing to add (and not sure if there’s been any posts on the particular model): the 00Z GEM attempts to go for a Northerly right at the end of its run with High Pressure amplifying in the Atlantic, though it looks as though the main part of the Northerly dodges the U.K. to the East: Perhaps close enough maybe for a high-ground wintry shower or two over Northern and North-Eastern areas. Looks a bit similar to yesterday’s 12Z ECMWF run - albiet that had stronger amplification in the Atlantic and the pattern seemed a little bit further West. Mostly for a bit of amazement really as it will, no doubt, change again on the next GEM run. Whether a Northerly occurs or not within the next ten days will, I think, partly depend how much High Pressure in the Atlantic can amplify. Helped also by upstream troughing/Low Pressure systems digging far enough South to the West of the Atlantic High so the Low Pressure doesn’t steam roll over it. This, along with any Lows that swing down from the North-West on the Eastern side of the Atlantic High going far enough South to the East of the UK into mainland Europe, to provide an Arctic blast for the cold weather fans to drool over.

Will let you off this time. (afterall it’s not like the thread got completely derailed or anything). For the sake of it, just a quick look at the 8 to 14 day 500mb mean chart from the NOAA and it seems to suggest heights building in the Atlantic with a mean West-North-West upper flow over the U.K. Could do with more amplification of the mean upper flow in the Atlantic along with the positive anomalies backing slightly further West to increase confidence of some colder, more unsettled, conditions from the North. But since it’s an average of days 8 to 14, don’t think it would be totally unfeasible for a day or two of chillier (and perhaps more cyclonic) conditions to come from more of a direct North-Westerly or Northerly direction. Especially for Northern areas of the U.K.

Indeed! Let’s get back on topic please some of you! Tar. Otherwise, you may end up with a flying golf ball heading towards you...

Some encouraging signs it appears for a possible front-loaded Winter with chilly conditions. But, to be honest, this is how I feel Winter 2018/19 will pan out. December: January: February:

Sunny.... Warm.... Honestly feels like May today. 10/10 weather! Thanks @Summer Sun for doing the sunshine dance. Just make sure you do the dance the rest of the week. The Atlantic can just go for a nap till early, or mid, November. And then it can send its Lows to the South and East of the UK and bring snow.

Just a little look at the 00Z GFS and it looks, in general, High Pressure spends most of its trip over the UK. Blocking to the East still evident for this week (as I would expect) bringing warmer weather with it, especially towards Eastern areas. Sunny and bright at times, too. But... the Atlantic Lows do try to give the Eastern UK High a punch later in the week: ...and hurts the poor Eastern UK High Pressure system’s tummy. Western and North-Western areas of the U.K. feeling the main affect from the determined Atlantic Lows - those areas experiencing some wind and rain at times and perhaps briefly towards South-Eastern UK areas too. Especially Thursday! Nevertheless, the Eastern UK High Pressure system just does not want to give up getting real mad at those Atlantic Lows, trying so hard to push those sneaky monsters out West away from the U.K. As you can see, though, it’s a nail-biting battle. And some one has to win at some point. Suspect there will continue to be variations of this combat between the two forces from run to run. Heading towards the later part of the run, the Scandinavian and European High Pressure system gets reinforcements from the South-West. Ridging from the Azores area moves over the UK and partners up with the European High to our East. They try to gang up on the Atlantic Lows. While the Eastern/Scandinavian UK High Pressure system does get trampled on by the bad boys (aka Atlantic Lows), it seems like the Azores ridging has enough fight to send the Jet Stream on a Northerly track with High Pressure clinging to the UK, like blu-tac! This especially so over Southern UK, which would see the best of the dry and bright weather towards the end of the GFS run. If I were to rate how both combatants performed on this run, this is what the results would be. For strength and bravery: Eastern UK High - (6.9/10). Atlantic Lows - (5/10) UK domination: Eastern UK High - (8/10). Atlantic Lows - (3.8/10) The Eastern UK High wins! The Eastern UK block could have had a full 20/20 score in total, but it did have to rely on the Azores High coming to the rescue and the Atlantic Lows did sorta flatten out the block a bit. The block did well on the whole, though.

I know it probably won’t occur exactly like this, but that is a seriously long drawn flow all the way from the South the 12Z GFS is showing towards next weekend. Some people may be looking forward to seeing an Easterly turn up at some point, but a beast from the South will have to do for now.

Seeing some of the warm charts, such as that 12Z ECMWF later next week, it would almost feel like Hotober.

The models, such as the 00Z GFS, 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GEM continue to show a big knock-out occurring between the Scandinavian High Pressure to our East and the Atlantic Trough to our West in the Atlantic. An example from the 3 models at 192 hours: GFS GEM ECMWF Surprisingly quite reasonable agreement between the 3 (although models such as the GFS have been hinting at blocking to the East with a flow from the South for a while now). The Lows digging deep into the Atlantic sorta helps to encourage High Pressure to build strongly to our East. I expect things will continue to keep shifting with Eastwards or Westwards adjustments to the overal pattern. The further East and the more power the Atlantic Trough has, the more it could claim victory over its rival (the Scandinavian High) to the East with more of the UK being under attack from Atlantic Lows and the wind and rain it would bring. But the opposite and the blocking Eastern UK high could claim more control over our island (Think damianslaw went into similar detail yesterday saying if High Pressure was further East, the more the Atlantic could smash through). As it currently stands, it could be Summery for a time with warm daytime temperatures. The best of the fine weather towards Eastern areas with Western areas of the U.K. more likely to see more in the way of windy and wet conditions at times. Especially close to those fearsome Lows out in the Atlantic. The 500mb 6 to 10 day mean chart from the NOAA does support a build of pressure over to our East towards Scandinavia with a mean flow between the South-West and South-South-West. And showing some kind of possible North-West to South-East (perhaps West to East for a time) split occurring. Exactly settled or unsettled it may turn out to be overall for the U.K. will depend on surface features itself. Be fun to see how this continues to keep getting modelled and how long the likely the dual between both the Atlantic and the blocking Eastern UK High will last. Personally, another shot of Summer would be nice (but wouldn’t mind seeing some cold weather soon either, albeit tomorrow does look chilly, grey and wet for Southern UK areas with a slack Low to the South). Edit: mb018538 above sums it up well.

Feel some people may be getting a bit too concerned about what this Winter has in store, especially with it being a while away yet. Despite things such as the OPI index, the SAI index etc, and what they could end up indicating, no one really knows for complete certainty what will happen this Winter. Also just a friendly reminder to keep things on topic in here please. I know we don’t have a general Winter chat thread released yet (there will be one fairly soon) but would appreciate by ensuring your post isn’t focused just solely on snow and Winter chat, as they’re at risk of getting wiped out, or moved to any suitable threads we currently have, including the regional weather chat threads. Thanks guys and sorry for being a party pooper. It’s just from time to time, like with other threads, we have to defend the Model thread from unsuitable posts! ??

I’d love to be very greedy and have both Frosty’s/Mike Poole’s smashing warm Southerly, and bobbydog’s Boxing Day wintry paradise charts, come off!

Not too much to add this morning. Therefore, just a little focus on the possible storm this weekend. The 00Z GFS (both 135 hour and 144 hour charts used): 00Z ECMWF at 144 hours: 00Z UKMO at 144 hours: GEM at 144 hours: 00Z ICON (like GFS, both 135 hour and 144 hour charts used): 00Z NAVGEM at 144 hours: You can see they all show variations of a similar theme. It looks quite likely a Low Pressure system will affect the UK this weekend with some rain and showers. But it’s only really the GFS and the NAVGEM which shows the Low being a bad boy (stormy). The GFS has it affecting a wider area of the UK, particularly Eastern parts, where there could be some vicious gusts towards the East coast. The NAVGEM, on the other hand, has the Low taking a beating over Northern U.K. Most other models keep the Low Pressure system as a shallower affair and generally towards the Southern portion of the UK. Particularly the UKMO! The ICON, though, when you look at its 135 hours chart, is somewhere in between with the isobars of the Low tightly packed towards the Southern part of the little cyclone, so maybe some strong gusts towards the South coast on that chart. Just an example, these are what the wind speed gusts are like on the 00Z GFS during Saturday: Could be some angry gusts down Eastern parts with high tides, so would think carefully about taking the deck chairs with you to the beach! ? (not to mention the fact it could be chilly in those Northerly winds on the GFS). Obviously I imagine things will keep changing from run to run regarding the Lows track and intensity. And knowing how models like the GFS handled that pervious storm over the weekend, would be cautious of its outlook for now. Personally expect the Low to not be that moody at all with a shallower feature more likely. It may even be possible that the Low may not affect the U.K. at all and track well to our South. Still wouldn’t ignore the grumpy Low... just incase!

Just remember guys, this is the model thread. You wouldn’t want anything to happen to your posts now, would you!

Although in Fantasy Island, some nice charts to get those who like the warmth and Summery conditions mouths drooling! Probably won’t happen, but to see one last bite of the Summer cake until next year would be grand! Looks overall on the models that it could be quite up and down next week with a ridge to low to ridge setup occurring. Low pressure moving through from the West followed by ridging of high pressure followed by another Low. So fairly changeable, but Southern areas of the UK still probably seeing more in the way of less unsettled conditions with pressure looking reasonably high in the South in general. The 00Z ECMWF does try to spit out a Northerly for the UK later next week, but end up with a brief North-Westerly flow with the flow quite quickly getting cut off as the ridge in the Atlantic gets knocked Eastwards. Still likely to be chilly for a time though if this happens

Poor Greece! Hope that STC doesn’t cause too much peril. The weather can be so moody sometimes.

Just a focus on the nearer term output today. Some mostly settled weather in the next few days for places with further sunny spells in places continuing a similar theme earlier this week with High Pressure in control, especially so in the South. Towards the weekend, however, the models show Low Pressure to the North-West swinging South-Eastwards bringing wind and rain over Northern areas. But as the Low Pressure drops to the South-East, the models show the flow briefly turning to the North during Sunday with some showers likely for Northern and some Eastern areas. The flow looks as though it should be cold enough for the snow switch to get turned on over the Scottish mountains. But doesn’t look as though there’ll be too much of the white stuff. Mild to warm during the day times in the South, particularly in the sunnier periods, but generally a bit cooler in the North with temperatures more in the lower teens - perhaps into single digits in some places in the far North. But with the cooler flow from the North on Sunday and into Monday, then more places in the North could see temperatures more into the single digits. Daytime maximum temperatures: Nightime minimum temperatures: Sunday night and into Monday morning looks to be the coldest period in general with temperatures probably unlikely to get above freezing in some Northern spots. Especially during clearer skies. Could be quite frosty for some Northern parts that morning. Though nights in general look to be quite chilly in for all areas at times.

Just 24% humidity here at the moment with a temperature of 23.3*C. Feels warm out in that sun! A rocking good day for Autumn. Wouldn’t be too out of place in May.

Having a glance at the models this morning and there does seem to be a tendency for the High Pressure over the UK bringing some nice, sunny, weather for places (especially Southern areas), to leak away somewhat to allow more of a changeable Westerly flow to take over. Although Southern areas may still cling on to some mostly bright and dry weather. Examples from the 00Z GFS, ECMWF and GEM (in that order) at 192 hours: Not all the same, but they do show Low Pressure to the North becoming a little bit more invasive for the U.K, although the 00Z ECMWF seems to be the most noticeable regarding showing a more flatter, Westerly, flow taking over for all. There is, quite likely, a glancing Northerly for Eastern areas towards the weekend with some rain or showers towards Northern and Eastern areas, which could be wintry over the hills. Something a number of models have been showing for its last few runs now. Always room for the possible brief Northerly flow to become less, or more, dominant for the U.K. Probably will just be a fleeting affair, though. And just for a bit of amusement, and I know it’s the NAVGEM! , but its 00Z run looks as though it go on to produce a Northerly later next week as that Low to the North of the UK tries swings down South-Eastwards, possibly unleashing an Arctic blast.

Was thinking the same. Probably either accidentally attached the wrong chart, or he meant cool as in ‘awesome/great’. ?