BlueHedgehog074

Good afternoon Please continue your discussions of the weather here in South Western and Central Southern areas of the UK! In some cultures, this thread is known as South of the M4! The M4 is not just a motorway you see - rumour has it that the M4 acts as a forcefield that stops snow getting over to the Southern side. But... with a (potent) Easterly on the horizon, it could spell the end to the M4’s snow destroying antics! Please remember to keep things friendly in here and try to keep all missiles and teddies in da pram! Cheers all. Previous thread:

Gonna lock this up now. New thread incoming

Just to let you know, there’ll be a new South of the M4, uh, I mean South West and Central Southern England weather thread soon as this one is getting very big. ?

The weekend into early next week looking interesting!

The number of pages we’ve been through on the Model thread in the last 24 hours is incredible - more than the amount of toes and fingers I can count on myself! Guess it’s no surprise considering the synoptics the models are dishing out for the cold and snow fans.

Must admit, that is an impressive mean with a nice-looking Easterly flow. A little better than I thought it would be!

It’s understandable that peoples’ excitement is snowballing regarding the Polar Express-esque outlooks and, as such, we’ve tried to be a bit more leaned back this evening with our moderating of posts in here. But just a friendly reminder that this is the Model Output thread and would appreciate any off-topicness to be kept to a minimum, or your post may not see daylight, again! Thanks a lot all and please continue

Could just be a reverse psychology thing!

The ECMWF still failing to manipulate the GFS into agreeing with its outlook ?. The GFS continues to model the blocking High Pressure system further North than the ECMWF and has it better orientated allowing a more unstable, snowy, Easterly to spill through the U.K. An example from both the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z GFS at 168 hours (next Monday): It’s a shame the ECMWF is being a little too GFS-proof at the moment (if it’s bitter, wintry Easterlies you’re after). But perhaps the GFS may be able to put the ECMWF under a snowy spell this evening

Just a quick little comparison at 120 hours: the GFS 18Z has the Northern UK High a touch further West compared to the GFS 12Z run. Plus, the 500mb thicknesses accompanying the Easterly flow over the U.K. are a little lower (more greens) and, as such, is more unstable. The -5 850hPa temperatures also cover 99% of the U.K on the drunken GFS (18Z) run for Friday. Few odd wintry showers towards the East could be possible. GFS 18Z GFS 12Z

Not again. Posting charts while I’m feeling tired from work maybe isn’t the best idea ? Then again, just noticed on Wetterzentrale that today’s 12Z NAVGEM charts seem to run from 0 hours to 132 hours, while the 12Z ones from yesterday run from 144 hours onwards. Which seems pretty confusing and what probably threw me off! (Don’t worry, I’m not trying to attention seek or anything, even though I made the same mistake twice with posting wrong/out-of-date charts, lol) Edit: It’s good that tonight’s NAVGEM is an improvement though with the blocking high towards the end of the run extending itself further West through North-Eastern/Northern UK, so would agree that it seems good tonight

My bad, just realised accidentally included the 00Z NAVGEM charts in my previous post, rather than the 12Z ones. The 12Z NAVGEM actually has the pattern just a little bit further East compared with the 00Z run, with the colder 850 hPa temperatures making slower progress West next weekend ? Even though there’s still a chance for a bitter, unstable, Easterly to become stamped out (but probably unlikely), I think I would be worried if I were you, Atlantic! The models seem to agree that the Scandinavian/Arctic High Pressure system will kick ya bum! ?

Would also say that the 12Z NAVGEM is, generally, also taking the JMA, UKMO and GFS’s side! Very cold 850 hPa air (-10 and below) covering most of the U.K. by next Sunday. Another model that seems to be quicker with the deeper cold Easterly evolution.

Didn’t feel anything here, although there’s apparently been reports of people in the region that felt some shaking! Maybe it’s a sign of the snow demons trying to break out of the ground and plan to invade the U.K. with a big, thick, white blanket from the East ?

Turning out to be a pleasant afternoon with some good sunny spells after a cloudy morning! That feeling of Spring is starting to feel more and more evident. Especially with the brighter sun. Not terribly mild, but still reasonable with the temperature around 8*C, and rising. Should a cold, potent, Easterly fail to occur within the next two weeks, then I would be happy to see some warmer Spring-like weather - kinda similar to this afternoon. It just gets exhausting going after dreamland cold snowy setups and Easterlies in the Models all the time. More especially if these setups just get stuck in FI. I think, to be fair, most of us seem to have done pretty well for wintry weather in the Midlands this Winter. But one or two last chances of some further snowy weather, particularly if it comes via an unstable convective Easterly (as they’ve been lacking), would be great!

Thought it was, and fair enough I think if the Easterly does happen (not just one that’s weak and slack), it might as well be a proper one delivering deep cold and a snowy paradise But I accept it’s not something everyone’s looking for.

There’s no 31st February ?

Pretty bored of this Winter now to be honest and just want it to be Spring. Just end up wasting lots of time chasing Easterlies and cold snowy spells in the Models (including to being addicted to reading all the posts in the main Model and Winter threads) that it distracts me from other stuff I want to tackle - such as going for walk, going to the gym, meeting people, playing video games. And even just monitoring what the weather is actually doing outside! Model output watching/monitoring becomes so draining after a while.

Don’t particularly like to cherry pick charts from the Model tree (been guilty of doing it before, mind), but the 00Z NAVGEM seems to be another model (just like the 00Z UKMO) that unearths an Easterly/North-Easterly within the 6+ day period. Examples used from 120, 144, 168 and 180 hours. Apologies if these charts have been posted by others already. But the NAVGEM can feel left out at times and can do with a bit of attention... despite it not being the best performing model. Unless stronger support occurs within the 6+ day timeframe for a Polar Continental Easterly to occur, then I’m gonna resist all forces from the likes of the 00Z UKMO, 00/06Z ICON and 00Z NAVGEM to knock me into the whirlpool of continental cold and snowy excitement! ?

Can see the clearance to the West/North-West now. A nice little surprise that was.

Some wet snowflakes mixed in here too ?

Quite reasonable I guess.

I think it would be fair to say that the North-Westerlies this Winter have generally been more wintrier and potent compared to those of the last few years or so, especially for lower level areas of the Midlands! I think, however, I remember a North-Westerly in February 2012 that brought -10*C 850 hpa temperatures over the Midlands on one of the days that month with scattered heavy snow showers overnight.

Was thinking the same thing! Snow shield seems to be recovering.

Indeed, shaky! Does look a touch snowier for the Midlands on that GFS 18Z! I know they aren’t the most accurate charts in the universe, but just a comparison between the two at 12pm, Tuesday: 12Z GFS 18Z GFS