BlueHedgehog074

Coming down pretty thick now!

Full on heavy snow in Solihull! ? But a little wet and sleety ?

The latest Netweather radar shows a heavy area of precipitation out West which, as longs as it doesn’t lose too much intensity, may give a heavier spell of rain, sleet and snow for places! Seems to be moving in mostly a West to East direction.

Definitely a few wet snowflakes mixed into the rain here in Solihull town centre!

Greetings to you all in the South and South-West The previous thread was flooded with pages and pages of weather chat that it looked like it was about to burst, so here’s a hot new thread for you to continue your discussions of the weather in the South West and Central Southern areas of the U.K! Please keep things friendly in here or you may jinx it for any possible future snow chances. And I see that it’s someone’s Birthday. ? Happy Birthday Nights King! ?? Previous thread:

Just to let you know, will be locking this thread up in a bit as it’s getting quite long. But do not despair as the annoying red line will be opening up another one in a sec ? PS: Happy Birthday to Nights King! Edit: New thread

Howdy! A brand new Midlands Regional Discussion thread to continue your chats of the weather in the area! No toys are to be thrown out of prams and please keep things in here friendly. Cheers Link to previous thread:

Gonna lock this thread in a bit as it’s getting long. A new one is coming your way! Edit: the new one

Hello their Scotlanders! A fresh, sparkly, thread for you all to continue your chats of the weather in this fine country! Other thread got a wee bit long! As usual, please do behave yourselfs and keep all toys in the pram! And another thing, don’t keep all the snaw to yourselfs. Those further South would appreciate it ? Previous thread:

Just an advance warning, will be closing this thread very very shortly. Got a shiny new one in the pipeline! Edit: Locking this now. Link to new thread:

Ah, got beaten to it lol! Thanks for opening a new thread. You’ve done a great job on it! Did look like the length of the older thread was piling up with too many pages!

Despite some support from the models for this devilish storm next Wednesday/Thursday, the chances are most of the models (especially the ICON 06Z) are over-blowing that little monster. And by the time the day arrives itself, the Low (if it definitely happens) should end up much slacker and consequently may result in it taking a more Southerly track. This of which may increase wintry possibilities for places. Clearly something to keep an eye on anyway and, if it does come off like what some of the current models are showing, I guess we may have to all vacate to the Moon!

I think you’re right! It’s never fun waking up early when it’s dull and murky outside.

I swear it doesn’t seem to be getting any lighter in the mornings, yet it’s definitely getting lighter a little later in the afternoons ?

All the problems with no snow over Southern areas would be solved if the M4 was relocated over the Channel!

Hope Knocker’s animal friend remembered to stock up on nuts. That lucky squirrel

Just an example at 204 hours, the 00Z GEM manages to clear the Atlantic trough approaching from the West next week East into mainland Europe pulling in a chilly Northerly/North-Easterly flow over the U.K. Probably some heavy wintry showers in places! (Worth saying that the GEM tends to under-estimate the coldness of the 850 hPa temperatures - would expect those upper temperatures to be at least a degree or two colder) GFS 00Z concentrating the Atlantic trough more to the North of the British Isles around the same time frame, hence more of a Polar Maritime North-Westerly feed over the U.K. Either way, both scenarios do look chilly overall. Looking at both the GFS and GEM runs at 144 hours, and you can see they both show differences to the orientation and shape of the Atlantic Low/Trough: GEM 00Z GFS 00Z The GFS shows more of a ball-shaped Atlantic Low. It’s a little less squashed and not as negatively tilted compared to that of the GEM run. The blocking to the North-East over Scandinavia exerts less influence on the Atlantic trough on the GFS, whereas more pressure seems to be exerted on the Atlantic trough from the Scandinavian blocking on the GEM run. More in the way of ridging over Northern Greenland too which I think helps! Plus, upstream towards Eastern Northern America, the pattern seems a little more amplified on the GEM 00Z at 144 hours. I think these aspects seem to be some of the things that help disrupt and force the Atlantic trough South-East into mainland Europe on that GEM run more quickly and easily than on the GFS 00Z run. Maybe some things to look out for on future runs (just my opinion away, but I admit I’m not an expert on this kind of stuff)

Back on topic please, or more posts will end up mysteriously disappearing ?

Indeed! Some posts may end up getting zapped to dust soon if the bickering and ranting continues! Always the Private Message/Sticky Notes chat facilities to continue the rants. No more naughtiness now please guys. Cheers! Back to the Model Output ?

Without the risk of taking the thread off-topic, will mention that whether you’re a beginner, or someone with much technical knowledge, all thoughts and opinions regarding models, charts and data (even if it’s things such as the MJO, etc) are welcome in this thread! As such, let’s please keep this place friendly. Thanks all

Today’s 00Z UKMO 168 hour chart seems to hold the Atlantic back today with what looks to be Low Pressure wanting to disrupt to the South-West of the U.K. And improvement compared to yesterday’s 00Z UKMO 168 hour chart (for those who ain’t keen on Atlantic dominated weather), where the Atlantic broke through: Signs that perhaps models, such as the UKMO, may have been under-estimating the strength of any blocking to our East/North-East. But still not a full done deal yet

Feels cold enough to snow this morning, but hardly anything falling!

That’s good Guess we’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow for the next 00Z run. Hopefully it will have joined the GFS at the pub! ? It’s a mystery what’s happened to the 12Z 168 hour chart tonight tho (assuming the site does contain the 12Z 168 hour UKMO runs)

Yep, just the one right here in the post below by @koeleboe It’s so easy to forget to bookmark particular sites at times, so I know how it feels, lol https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgenDAT/2018/

Ah, fair enough, lol. I’m tempted to edit that chart and put ‘12Z’ on it just to confuse everyone ? Nah, seriously, still getting a hang of the site that those charts came from :).