cowdog

Tomasz Shafnacker (or how ever you spell his name) on the 1.30pm BBC 1 forecast said he expects the 27c record to be broken tomorrow night - and it to be as low as -30c somewhere in Scotland. This cold spell is going to be one the remember, just hope its a one off and not the sign of a new pattern.

Note that New York is now on Tropical Storm watch with the latest advisory - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/020855.shtml Unless this starts to turn away this has potential to be a nightmare in the level of damage.

Given the strengthening is it now almost a certainty that Earl will be a Cat 5? This really has the potential to be a history making Hurricane if it keeps on current track / moves even further west. It's been 100+ years since New York was hit by a Hurricane hasn't it? Really hope this swings away from the latest tracks as this is going to be nasty.

Wow that's a significant jump and seems maybe a tiny bit higher at ESK than HVO so it appears that what ever is brewing is going to happen at the current erupting volcano and not Katla.

Anyone noticed if the volcano is emitting Magma now/increased activity? Can't get a cam to load. Reason I ask is the seismometers near (including esk which is back) have both indicated the 0.5 1 hz has dropped yet the higher frequencies have increased. Would of thought that would mean something thats been coming up has finally reached the surface / near the surface.

The HVO (Lagu Hvolar) seismometer which is the closest to Katla is peaking, yet the others aren't increasing as much. Does look to my untrained eye it might be Katla that is causing this general seismic increase in the area, hope to god its not, but if its got to blow, best to do it now when we already have the mess from Eyjafjallajokull. Seismic charts are available here - http://hraun.vedur.i...web/tremor.html HVO is the one next too Katla, ESK the one next to Eyjafjallajokull. Both are almost the south most stations. http://hraun.vedur.i...todvaplott.html is a page for the 5 seismometers around that area.

Latest London VAAC - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/data/VAG_1271526609.png

Currently refreshing the Mets VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory) page as the latest advisory is due in the next 30 minutes. Should be interesting to see if the ash makes another significant projected move towards North America. This feels as bad as waiting for the possible snow model output. Mets VAAC Page - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html

They are though. Katla is a linked volcano and is much bigger than this one, and is linked to many of the major ash layers in Northern Europe. Katla has always exploded after this volcano explodes and they have been expecting Katla to erupt since December when it first started to show signs. One thing with Katla is that it blows around every 80 years (last time was 1918 so its due) and sometimes can be relatively minor or it can be very very destructive. Either way this volcanic activity is likely not to be over soon.

Been snowing here since about 5pm here. Not heavy though, but its already more than a couple of cm's on the fields and now more than a cm on what were the wet stone areas. Going to be a good night by the looks of things.

Not gone above 0o here today, looks like the cold is well and truly back, just need the snow and it will be like 'old' times again.

The snow stopped at about 2cm for us last night. What was amazing today though was the fog, never previously had it as bad as it was today. Light source visibility in the morning was down to 25m, none light source was about 10M! Thank god it was about double that by 8:30 ish, but it didn't fully clear all day and is back again now, but only about ~50M visibility.

Really don't like the look of 72. The cold is to far away. Just checked the temps and they are 4+ degrees higher than the 12z.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/Rtavn541.png That is the most direct way. 54 is the latest it is up to.

18z seems to be pointing so far that its going to undercut even lower. So looks like game on still.

Think it was doing that (showing precip when it was a half hour+ behind) as it crossed the country. Got a very nice layer of snow here now, past 2cm's on the fields.

Been snowing here now for an hour. Was light for the first 15-20 minutes then been moderate/heavy since. We already had a covering on the ground from yesterday so this is just going and settling straight on top. Could be a significant amount for us going on the radar / wind direction.

Yup, not good at all, although it might be snow for the majority of the North for most of the time, really does seem borderline. Just checked and think this is the first none cold run for GFS since Saturday, and rather worryingly if you go back and compare each run it has been downgrading the cold for Friday near enough every run, its just finally gone over the tipping point. Hopefully GFS is not onto something.

Looks identical to the 00z run to me near enough, with if anything the low stronger. Change of flow to a slightly more NW though maybe, in part due to the low strengthening. Edit: does look like that small change is enough to make the temps borderline for anywhere but Scotland and Northern England.

Had a few (literally a few) flakes of snow earlier today, sign of things to come Hopefully we get more than a couple of cm's out of this one this week, it does look very promising.

Its only really an outlier from about 150 hours on, until then its with the majority of the ensemble. Ok then it goes lets drop the 850 5-10 degrees in a day and is almost on its own, so very limited support for the extremes but the rest of the run does seem to support that its going to get cold, just maybe not national emergency level cold :lol:

Still got some snow here but its down to small mounds now. Expect it all to be gone before Wednesday. Will mean about 5 weeks of snow cover, which for us is not really that special, even in recent years.

Think you might have a cache issue and picking up old versions, as all the GFS charts currently on Weatheronline (either via your URL or the normal one that 10123 posted) show nothing but rain from Friday onward - as you would expect given the temps etc the model is showing.

Where did you get that from? BBC latest? GFS 12z has marked it down even colder - now max 2c for Saturday. This trend of the models keep making Saturday colder surely means its going to maybe be a nowcast event as to what exactly happens on Saturday.

We have got freezing rain here as well, well its more like Freezing sleet as some very fine snow mixed in. Temp is -1c. Is really odd to see, and a great time for it given rush hour approaching.