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PolarWarsaw
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Posts posted by PolarWarsaw
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I'd just like to make a very obvious point, but one that's useful.
When reading this thread, especially this week - it's important to check the location of the user and what they are posting.
The 6z GFS is a perfectly good run for 90% of the country, it just gets more marginal further south and takes longer for the coldest air to get down to the very far S/SE - you will note the negativity mostly stems from those users in this thread. Much like, on the 0z I'd rather take my chances on an Atlantic incursion, because, for most of the W and NW - it's bone dry and very boring next week, whilst the SE gets in on some streamer action. It's all so fickle and the IMBY nature of things effects what kind of opinion people have.
As for the entire set up, it's knife edge, perilous, could go wrong with even one false step and the margins are even finer than virtually ANY other cold set up. It's still 60-40 AGAINST something like that 18z coming off. Still only 55-45 in favour of cold uppers next weekend. How is this nailed?
Unlike some cold spells, There's a good 3/4 days to go before this is nailed down, the modelling of the low will be in 'current time' - when a feature such as that is so decisive in giving or taking a cold spell away - FI is down to 72 hours MAX. This could all go wrong or right on Wednesday evening.
Can people please, not, under any circumstance declare a freeze 'nailed' at Day 7, incorrectly for the 280th time this winter. It just leads to more toys out of the pram and an unreadable thread a few hours later when a computer generated forecast that's never actually come to fruition takes away some snowflakes at the window.
It's painful and brings 'that side' of the population out, you know the role your eyes at gang.
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6 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:
Actually it’s been pretty damn good 60 miles south of Birmingham - 4 days of lying snow, numerous frosts, crazy rain and flash flooding, hailstorms, thunder and lightning... most interesting winter for a while, and we’ve some weeks to go yet!
Agreed, I've actually had a lot of fun this season. Best for years.
But the small minority South of the M4 still haven't seen a flake. Would be nice to get them in on the action.
If not only to keep them from moaning, whilst the North has all the fun.
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Tomorrow looks like a wet sleety mess, falling on warm ground in marginal conditions favourable to the heavy PPN. Somewhere in the very far western tip might do well, Snowdonia etc - but I can't see much if any settling snow on lower ground North or east of Worcester.
MO have jumped the gun using broad brush warnings for 3 entire days next week - can't see any of it. I expect those to be removed too. It's hilarious to see how they have reacted since their failings last weekend.
Let's see where the next chase takes us. Next weekend/week is over IMO.
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15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
You putting your house on the warnings for snow next week will be removed...... Presume you have more than one house.
Your post just discounted an Easterly and any boundary snow event.
I didn't discount it, but IMO - It won't happen.
Going totally off topic though with that kind of discussion though.
Do not be surprised to see warnings removed for early next week, away from perhaps Scotland and next weekend was always up for debate considering we have been here 100 times this winter and vast swathes of the country haven't seen more than a frost.
Personally I'm quite content. We have had 7 days of accumulating snow, all with 1CM+ and then 16CM's last weekend, so my downbeat tone is more for those that wanted to see something covering the entire of the country. Winter has been great North of Birmingham.
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Good grief.
That ECM isn't a 'downgrade' - it's a complete bipolar opposite that leaves us heading towards mid February and beyond into the dregs of winter with no nationwide snowy spell. It's all fine to say 'it could be an outlier' and lets see what happens next, of course that's very true but that kind of attitude would lead you to believe 'waiting' this winter would have delivered a memorable spell, but it hasn't.
As it is, the models continue to point at the Netweather model thread and shout 'suckers' every time. Couple of good runs deep into FI and the thread explodes with sledges and snowball fights, how do people not learn?!
Still, it doesn't surprise me - this was always a 'close' set up and one that could go either way, it was also at Day 8 still (obviously still FI) and tonight just goes to show that 1 thing in the wrong place ruins an entire set up. GEFS and EPS trending away this evening, it all feels rather 'another one bites the dust' doesn't it? Let's also point out that this is another scenario where ENS all heading in one direction mean absolutely nothing and in potentially colder setups, rarely ever will (unless it's the Atlantic heading in).
It will be interesting to see what the 0z's do with that Energy towards Greenland as this is huge in deciding what happens going forward.
Could just be me and with everything that's going on, but this is starting to feel like the longest few months of model watching in history. I just can't see it 'happening' this year. The much beloved background signals are in our favour, but have been for 8-10 weeks now without delivering. It's just not coming together this season and IMO, won't do either.
Still, let's see what the 18z and then early suites deliver. Perhaps this will just be a rogue run, I'd put my mortgage on the fact it's on to a new trend and we won't see any sort of easterly next weekend....hopefully I'm wrong though.
PS - How over-reactionary are the MO with warnings since the failings of last weekend?! Complete flop of a forecast area for tomorrow and to have warnings out for 3 days next week in a vast area seems like madness! They will be withdrawn sharpish.
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Looks like they’ve been trending northwards to me
Yesterday none even had it getting into the U.K. This morning one or two still had it not reaching the Midlands. Now they all do.
My best guess is largest amounts of snow around Birmingham across into Wales. Smaller amounts further north to around the far north of the region. Maybe as far north as Lancashire. South of the region may struggle to see much if any accumulation.
Unless we do get a big shift southward and I’m made to eat my words!
It trended North originally a couple of days or so ago, but since then it's plain as day IMO that it's moving slowly SW and is likely to continue to keep doing so. Last week was absolutely anomalous in terms of usual patterns for us here. We will need a late shift back in our favour up here as I'm expecting to stay dry all weekend. I can genuinely remember last week and virtually nothing else comes to mind in terms of northward shifts close to an event.
I hope you are correct though pal.
3 minutes ago, wolvesman said:Can never be snowed out in this country but have actually enjoyed the hint of spring out there today as well. Agree likely trend is Southwards now.
Get off it will you, it's bloody January.
It's spring/summer/mild/mundane like for about 10 months of the year in the woeful climate of this country.
Let the coldies embrace the miniscule amount of fun we have!
Hopefully there's an 8 week ice age inbound.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
The vast majority of models get the front further north than that.
I’ve seen such southward shifts before but not from every model within 48 hours.
They do.
But for how much longer?
90% of the models are correcting South and West with each set of output, whilst the main core of the PPN is getting weaker and weaker across the Midlands. It all stinks of a 'snizzle' fest anywhere Brum (if not further) S and W.
IMO, currently this is no comparative at the surface to what last weekend produced, or anything like.
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22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
They always just copy the most recent ECM run. ECM looks on its own for Sunday.
Which part mate?
Lot of the models don't get the front to Birmingham, apart from very light PPN that will make the floor wet.
I know you are extra positive because of moving to London and Stoke seems like heading from the Desert to Narnia, but this weekends set up has all the hallmarks of a nothing event for most of England/The midlands, especially further N and E you go.
Hopefully I'm wrong pal.
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Being completely honest, last weeks system moved North but this is a totally different set up. That was 1 off. Having watched and lived int the Midlands for 30 years, I can categorically name on 1 hand the times that has happened - it's not a new trend to pay much attention too, we just got very lucky north of Birmingham last weekend.
The front is weaker and moving in at a slightly different angle. It's also coming up against colder air that's slightly further west. When all is said and done this has all the hallmarks of probably weakening over Wales and the SW. Perhaps to provide the likes of South and West Hereford/Gloucester/Worcester some light snow. That warning zone will be moved/shifted, just like last week.
Shame really, as I fancied being greedy.
The ground will also be wet this week and again, speaking from experience of the local area. Even if it snows heavily for hours, that 'wet' under layer will decrease any accumulations and melt things quicker once a few people have stood in it. We need a dry couple of days now, cold at night, then the initial band to be much further North, with enough intensity to start as snow.
Anyone much further N or E of Bristol, keep your expectations to 'a dry weekend' - anything else is a bonus.
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For those directly South of somewhere like Stafford, you are going to want to the intensity of the band increasing and building as far west as possible, when the natural drift south/se happens that's the only way areas like that see anymore notable snow.
Some event this turned out to be, from such a thin band of snow too. Closing in on 9CM here now on the Rugeley side of the Chase, although it has stopped.
If we can keep some intensity on the western edge, it was naturally drift slowly southwards.
Otherwise, let's get it dark and frosty now so we can keep this.
7th lying snowfall of the winter, but this is the first 'snow day' - todays accumulation is deeper than all of the previous 6 combined!
Be interesting to see if we can sneak another midweek too.
For all of this talk about SSW hype and failings (mostly disgruntled folk south of the M4) we have seen more falling snow days this winter than we have for many numerous years.
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Weird how things work isn't it?!
Great even here in South Staffs, got to be almost 3 inches now. Close to 2 hours of very heavy (orange) snow with massive flakes. Took all of 10 minutes to go from nothing to white over.
This time yesterday the front looked like it would barely make it to Birmingham, now we are 30 miles North of Birmingham trying to cling on to the light stuff as it clears out. Hopefully it pivots back southwards and tops us up. Doesn't look likely though.
@MattStoke is that front still falling South tommorrow?
Tuesday looks like it could be close to another marginal snowfall.
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When I saw the radar this morning I thought Matt would be happy in Stoke.
Couple of heavier showers here but not long lasting enough or in a proper streamer so they left mini coverings before the sun came out, but all have melted now.
Looking pretty dry/crap for those anywhere from Birmingham northwards (other than Stoke/across to Derbyshire) tomorrow so need to try and grab a couple of showers this evening when it's dark.
I'd not be surprised to see this continue to move South, they always do - Worscester/Hereford across to Cambridge will be the Northern extent/sweet spot. Points northwards staying dry. All points north of South Birmingham bone dry today and tomorrow.
Cheshire gap streamers are not what they used to be these days, we haven't had a good widespread one for years. Also too marginal and need to fall at night for most of the midlands.
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Almost like a repeat of the other evening but further South, glad some are getting snow.
Is there colder air coming in following this? Haven't had chance to look properly. If there isn't, then it's absolutely nowhere near cold enough for rain in Staffordshire, doesn't even feel close to snowy. Lots of rain and drizzle here.
Tomorrow looks okay in the NW of the region, but accumulating snow is going to be hard to come by. Day time, Saturday so the streets and roads will be wet, lots of puddles - just can't envisage it sticking properly unless you get lucky enough for the first shower of the day to be heavy and long lasting.
Sunday's event continues to drift further south, a clear cut off line around Birmingham for me.
I'd be quite bullish of some snow though if I lived in SW of the Midlands. Somewhere from Hereford, east to Cambridge is where I'd be looking.
As much as we have to be thankful of falling snow, there is a hint of frustration that every seems to come with some sort of issue.
Midweek it poured with rain for hours before the snow came, by which point anything that accumulated (1cm or so) then melted before sunrise. This evening is mostly rain bar the evaporative cooling and that snow will be gone by morning too. Then tomorrow for the NW of the region, you really need sundown and a heavy stream of showers for a covering, unless you are on high ground. It's disappointing when it's only January.
Still, some to get falling snow and a lucky few for a covering this weekend.
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13 minutes ago, Snow White said:
To be fair for people who don’t think Scotland begins after Manchester this winter has been good so far. Inland northern areas have had snow cover most days since Xmas Eve. Looking at the models northern England is in for more of the same over next few weeks.
We still have another two months of winter weather to come and looking at the models northern areas are rarely far from the cold. Hopefully we see the impacts of the SSW. I for one think especially for my location winter is far from over.
I certainly don't think it's winter over at all. As I mentioned, plenty of time left to get widespread snow to the UK. It's just as soon as you get into February and then mid-month you suddenly start finding the days are 3 hours longer, the sun is warmer etc. You need considerably more 'notable' synoptics to provide good spells at that point. Although it's very disappointing to see the 'slider' theme dropped from this weekend as that's the golden ticket for most of the country to get a decent snowfall this winter.
I've had 4 snowfalls this season, all of them stuck around for a day or so and all were 1-2CM deep, we've been very lucky here as we are probably the southern most and most lowest lying area away to see accumulating snow on more than 1 occasion. I'm quite content with that. I do feel with an SSW, the zero Vortex this season and everything else that's fallen favourably, that it's a massive shame to have not had quite a long, notable, cold and widespread snowy spell this season and I think most, especially South of the M4 would echo that.
No doubting it's been the most IMBY winter for years, somewhere from Buxton through to Yorkshire and then northwards has had it's best and most snowy winter in years.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
It does seem a little more chaotic at the moment.
I'm hoping the mjo news is genuine, that will be another key in unlocking the Atlantic,which is almost certainly ripe for wedges...
I hope you are right mate and admire your optimism.
Personally I've realised that I learn more from looking at charts myself and listening to the wise guys on this forum than I do looking at any forecast, anything on social media etc.
My only opinion right now is that all of these 'background' drivers, the MJO etc - they are all as flippant as the CFS or an individual GFS ensemble member, they flop and change on a daily basis. One day they are heading into a favourable spell for us, the next morning it's doom.
Until we learn more about them and how they imprint on the weather in our locale/at our surface (not fussed about what's happening in Russia for example) then for me they are built on very wobbly ground and can continue to be used in the same faith as the GFS updating every 6 hours of the day.
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3 minutes ago, Hullsnow87 said:
So this means we could be in for a cold start to feb?
Perhaps so, but these charts have changed their mind since September at virtually every turn.
They are IMO, about as much use as a chocolate fireguard. Though admittedly, they do occasionally show a general trend worth following.
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39 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:
I am surprised and amazed that the posters in this thread seem to have no interest in the weather over the next 3 days ..it looks certain now we will be having a major weather event in terms of rainfall and potential flooding I would have expected lots of worried posters interpreting the charts.. but no still chasing fantasy cold events 8-10 days away ....
It's very worrying indeed, hopefully those in flood prone areas are okay.
However, it rains on and off for about 4 months of the year and is hardly that rare during summer (getting much rarer, our Summers are far drier, more humid and generally more of a chore each year now) either. It rains on and off over the course of a year, quite often a lot and for days at a time.
It snows a very small handful of times during any winter, if we are lucky and for those reasons people will always want to chose to discuss/chase something that you might not see for years....over something you can see most days for 4 or 5 months of the year.
FWIW, rain seems to be everyone's least favourite type of weather. Which to me seems genuinely strange, I'd much sooner have weather like this to discuss, or even a raging zonal Atlantic than I would high pressure or boredom. So there is a time and a place for focusing on rain - namely from April to September, just not in winter (never will be either).
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8 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:
Hi all as the ssw had any effect on weather yet over Western Europe or is the effect happening now with block over western greenland with this on going wintery hazards around uk . Or is it still wanting game for ssw effect Western Europe..
Hi there,
In short no.
Any effects of the SSW are being felt further north and much further east than the UK/Europe with most of the cold air still stuck where it has been for months. Wintry hazards appear to be marginal and predominantly favourable for those in Scotland.
It's a waiting game in terms of whether more damage can be done to the Vortex in the next month or so to bring us a cold spell. As of right now it's more whether we can find a route to cold without the effects of an SSW - as of right now the SSW has had and looks like having zero impact on the UK at the surface. If anything the SSW has been more unhelpful for our weather as it has potentially disrupted a reasonable pattern from beforehand and increased energy in the Atlantic that wasn't there before.
The outlook is chilly and wet this week, with snow for Scotland and the hills of Northern England, but not cold enough elsewhere. Lots of rain this week and then the chance of us drying out next week as we settle down but continue the 'cooler' theme. Sadly, zero wintry weather is in the forecast or on the horizon for most of England as we continue towards the end January.
All in all, very typical for the UK. The disappointing winter and weather at the surface continues for those wanting something more snowy.
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1 hour ago, Gadje said:
'gefs mean at d13 ' no comment.
Hi Gadje,
Discussing a day 13 mean from the GFS that's actually going out of commission because of it's notorious woeful performance, especially after the Day 10 period, right during the middle of a period of time where the models haven't got a clue what's going to happen at Day 5.
In terms of the models today, you really do have to feel sorry for the South, specifically those south of the M4. I am not hopeful of seeing snow towards the back end of the week as far South as Birmingham, so at this point I'd put the discussed areas above at no more than a 5% chance of seeing snowfall at the end of the week. Buxton north could see quite a wintry spell again from Thursday onwards. There has been a real divide across the country so far this year, more so than I can remember normally.
In terms of realistically understanding where we go during this complex time, a point to remember whilst reading and one that is more apparent now and will be this week more so than usual, is reading the location of the poster commenting. There will be a large difference in tone of post depending on location.
It's not a perfect scenario, but we are still in a more promising, if frustrating situation than normal - there's plenty of marginal snow events on the horizon IMO, it just depends whether the exact IMBY nature of things is snow, or rain.
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1 hour ago, sheikhy said:
Horribe terrible mean at 240 hours and after!!!we are in a westerly flow across the uk and pure boredom!!!!!wake me up when something interesting turns up!!!
Unfortunately mate, that could be an unknown amount of time. We live in one of the most boring climates in the world for all of the more interesting types of weather.
51 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:See you in April then
Summer is the weather equivalent of being asked to clean the entire of the great wall of China with a toothbrush. An agonising slow chore.
It's no surprise that there's rarely over a page of Model discussion each day for 3/4 months of the year. Traffic is down 95%.
We can live in hope though. I certainly wouldn't mind a 4/6 Thunderstorm each afternoon/evening for 6 months.
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2 hours ago, Djdazzle said:Then it will be March!
Looking like January may be another addition to the case studies of months which don’t live up to the hype.
Sadly, the slider lows being modelled are not running into air that is cold enough.
Months are only 'hyped' if you read into people giving an opinion as a complete guarantee.
I mentioned 10 or so days ago that in terms of getting an initial 'hit' from the SSW that the next 2 weeks would be absolutely vital. I think it's suffice to admit and say at this point with a higher degree of certainty than not, a displacement as opposed to a split has not helped our current situation. It's almost certain now that the SSW will not provide any joy in bringing snow or any sort of notable spell (not even severe, just notable) to lowland UK.
Frankly, there's absolutely no need for toys out of the pram - it's still chilly, we are still in a better position than most years and with future warming's on the Vortex I do suspect the kind of 'teasing' pattern we are in at the moment will continue to be there right throughout February, plenty of snowy opportunities left. With that being said this is all 'kind of a shame' isn't it? - Given this winter had so much going right for it - nothing has translated to the surface. Positively though, we are not heading for any sort of prolonged UK high, Bartlett or raging Vortex over Greenland scenario.
A couple of things that have stung this year. The complete lack of 'overachieving' with any output. We have all got something quite useful out of a poor pattern during winters in years gone by, but this year nothing has fallen to give even 1 widespread slider event that stayed even for a day or 2.
I've also not long switched the Horse racing on for today and they had coverage of Chantilly in France - where it's absolutely hammering down with snow 2/3 inches deep, almost a Blizzard. Madrid managed their largest storm in decades with the whole city completely snowed in. That's France and Spain much further south that are enjoying snowy cold conditions with the UK suffering.
There's numerous large lessons to learn from this year (like last) but the most important/applicable one of all...
An SSW is a weather phenomenon, it is absolutely not and NEVER will be a forecasting tool. The art of an SSW is forecasting one to take place and then discussing what sort of Vortex disruption will take place. IF everyone could understand that and apply it to this thread, expectations would be a lot lower - not forgetting how much nicer a place it would be to read.
A word of advice, I still feel like a lot of people are 'expecting' rather than 'hoping' for models to suddenly flip/switch into a colder BFTE/notable cold style set up....expecting that is not going to be good for the mental health. It's probably now less than 5% that a BFTE or notable cold spell turns up in the next 2/3 weeks.
In summary;
*Initial SSW HAS been a failure for UK surface conditions, categorically no BFTE or notable cold spell - wet over white. That's now 2 out of the last 3 SSW's that have been useless for the surface of the UK - worth remembering next time one is forecast that the 'jam' of tomorrow often needs putting in the bin when it's left too long.
*Further warmings expected that could deliver notable cold still throughout Feb.
*Pattern to continue to be condusive to sliders and conditions perhaps marginal enough for Troughs/showers in correct setups.
*No sign of UK High, Bartlett, raging Vortex.
*Keep hopeful, don't expect.
*SSW isn't and never will be surface forecasting tool and as such, any hype, forecast etc needs taking with a distilled Atlantic barrel of salt.
Here is to a happy set of 12z.
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5 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:
Being squeezed from East & West, also slowly weakening, holes are been punched in it, so if any does creep further west, then expecting light rain here as the temp is just too high.
I have to say I'm honestly very surprised to people further west than me taking notice of this front.
It's been clear for most of the week that even with tiny shifts westwards this would be a drizzly damp sort of event for virtually anywhere away from Derbyshire and Leicester. Even that is likely to be a damp sort of slushy mess with hills being covered.
This is one of my main frustrations so far this winter, even with all these favourable drivers and it being 'cooler' than usual - we haven't managed to time everything nicely for one slider low to deliver a widespread event that would keep the greater population much happier.
Saturday looks the same, but is even further east and snow to rain - the worst kind of event.
Turning into a disappointing wet month.
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23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
It was Kasim in the model thread who said it was nailed on. Nothing is ever nailed on in weather prediction.
The SSW resulted in a displacement, which is always less likely to deliver significant cold to the U.K. than a split.
That was within the last week or so though, most are talking about SSW gate, which has been happening/discussed/nailed to actually happen for about a month.
Regarding the second point, I totally agree. This started going 'wrong' before an SSW even happened IMO. We moved from a split and ended up with a moderate displacement event, something that's 'barely' shaking things up at all. I still fear a lot have high expectations that we are going to wake up to model flip over night soon and the BFTE will just appear.
The chances of that have gone.
It's not all doom and gloom, but my advice is to enjoy any falling snow in the next week.
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11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:
So what has happened to the nailed cold spell and what has happened to the down willing from the SSW.
There is no nailed cold spell, nothing is 'nailed' in the weather until it's happening outside your window.
Lot of lessons to be learnt this winter about SSW's - they aren't a golden ticket, they just increase the chances of cold and snow.
That's it. Ignoring the weather in the here and now is exactly why people are so disappointed.
The SSW is weaker than was originally expected, which can happen and regardless of that, wasn't guaranteed to bring anything anyway - nobody ever said it would, so 'nailed' was just an opinion.
Mass hysteria and sheep following other people when they are quite obviously using terms such as 'Could', 'can' and 'might' is why the MOD thread is virtually unreadable on a daily basis currently.
SSW gate and it's failings will be the memory of this winter.
It should also be noted that is now 2/3 of the last SSW events that have failed to improve our weather. Which is possibly a good thing for people to take notice of when we end up back in this position in the next few years. 33% vs 66% of an SSW helping the UK at the surface is a fair reflection of realism in terms of what an SSW does.
Still plenty of snow chances this winter, but in terms of the '20th' and any sort of 'Severe cold spell' - it's all but out of the window. For me, I'd sooner stay in this current set up, no sign for any sort of Zonal weather, a Bartlett etc. Keep these southerly tracking slider style lows with better source of cold air now sitting to the east and it's just a matter of time before we see a widespread snow event.
These pair of sliders today and Saturday, look pretty poor for low ground midlands, even in the east.
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Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Only disappointing if you took make believe computer generated images with crayon like colourings on them at Day 7/8+ onwards as a 1/100 banker, or even anything like that really. Screenshot them and see how they compare to every single set of 12z.
The point still stands though regarding IMBYism and it being a massive issue at the moment. It will continue to be so in virtually every cold event.
If you asked 100 people in this thread how winter went, 60 may say 'good' - 40 south of the M4 would say it's been horrific, the ones that moan will always be seen 'louder' though which would be a proper 'skew' against what, for the larger majority of the country has been a snowy winter so far.