PolarWarsaw
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Posts posted by PolarWarsaw
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What a shame this is, huge opportunity. If we could have had this front tonight. It’s sctually a lot wider than it looked on the models. We’ve been the breeding ground for somewhere like Milton Keynes, east into London for quite a low of snow IMO.
Turning more snowy now but all too little too late. Thursday had better perform.
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Only hope for tonight is that the Cheshire gap gets going enough for a few showers to run inland. Hideous event and timing again for us today.
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YAWN fest again today. Same as last Tuesday, the PPN is coming through before it’s cold enough. Just like last Tuesday, there will be no accumulation here today. By the time the cold air mixes in, the fronts mostly gone and even if it’s not there won’t be enough left on it for a covering.
1-3CM widely across the Midlands is already bust IMO. Certainly below 200m.
Couple of poorly timed Tuesdays in a row.
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We were shafted last Tuesday by timings and rain before, today will be no different. No accumulations here today unless the Cheshire gap gets going tonight.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Yes. The ICON 18z was awful. Really hope it’s wrong.
If it’s not, then even my much tested patience is getting ready to load the hammer up with the final nails in the coffin. What a painful chore it is getting cold to this part of the world.
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Gutted about the EC46.
Why?
It’s used as general guidance for patterns. If our weather had turned out like the EC46 had suggested EXACTLY for the last 3 months we would all be buried and waiting for spring. We can’t even give reliable forecasts for weather systems 1 day in advance, let alone worry about month forecasts.
EC46 is one of many that are practically useless for macro forecasting. The way this winter has gone, the fact it’s moved away from a cold solution has probably just increased our chances!
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Blimey, expected a southerly trend but Jesus tonight’s 18z has the front, Thursday predominantly struggling to reach the far south of the midlands, a much weaker feature too. We need to see a trend back north tomorrow, either that or the remainder of this week looks chilly, dry and boring, if you take tonight’s out put at face value. (Not forgetting tomorrow’s rain/sleety mix)
What a yawn fest.
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1 minute ago, Paul Faulkner said:
Cold weather amber alert issued
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
I find the position of the amber to be very odd unless they are referencing ice and frost more than snow as a concern, either that or they are thinking showers could be of interest aside from main snow bands.
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Just now, shaky said:
Am confused lol!!ecm is the best of the bunch in regards to snow thursday but apparently theres not much!!you could not make this up lol!!
Don’t fret, plenty of water to go under the bridge yet. Whatever today’s 12z say, the system could and maybe will still end up hundreds of miles different. Anyone snow maps at the minute are to be taken with a council lorry loads of salt.
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Poor trends from the 12z so far. Tomorrow looks wet rather than white, a lot of water under the bridge for the end of the week but the ECM would be poor for anyone north of Birmingham and 8/10 these systems go further south over time.
Dont be surprised if places like Worcester end up being the northern extent. Lots to go under the bridge yet. 1 large fall would redeem this winter endlessly, but I can’t see it currently. Let’s hope other systems and streamers show up.
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1 hour ago, Dancerwithwings said:
This by Saturday....lovely it’s just fun at this stage
Well that would be fun, if it was at T12! So long to go to get anything like that!
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One thing that is noticeable about the latest MO forecast video that’s been posted in the incoming cold spell is that once the front moves through tomorrow evening, there looks to be at least potential for a few showers coming down from the NW, not many and not a streamer but if you get lucky, there’s the chance of catching one.
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
GFS takes the front right up into Southern Scotland still. Expecting it to correct southwards towards the other models. It always does.
GFS, Aperge and ICON all showing the wrap around as the front pivots. Persistent snow for several days potentially for somewhere.
Hopefully in our back gardens!
6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:I’ve been watching the Icon hi res for a number of days now, upto now it’s standing it’s ground ( hasn’t changed ) Tuesday a starter and Thursday the main course, then what is Polar Warsaw is pointing out could be the dessert....interesting times this forthcoming week for sure
Yes I think it's something that's worth watching, something that tends to make sliders a lot more fun is that they weaken and fall apart where they stall. Can mean snow falling from the skies for an extended period of time. I remember last December, that the snow started around 5am and I still had flakes falling at 6 and 7PM. They may have been light but it was still accumulating.
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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Wow. I hope the latest ICON and Aperge are right. Midlands buried by the weekend.
GFS going south though already mate. Don't be surprised if we stay dry. I'm beginning to wonder if the wrap around forecast for Friday may be something more interesting for us to watch.
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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Arpege brings in the Tuesday front much sooner infact is in central parts around 9-10am then for Thursday gives most of Wales Midlands and the North (peaks) around 15-20cm
Be interesting to see where this ends up.
One thing is for sure, that is only going south and west from this point, so if you are sweet spotting currently, ignore It until T6.
My current jackpot zone would be a line from Cardiff eastwards through somewhere like Northampton + Milton Keynes. Patchy snow cover north of that with potential for a dry zone north of somewhere between Stoke and Birmingham.
Lots to change between now and then.
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The one and only positive of this system is that it's not moving in to a large area of high pressure to the north or east. As has been the case during some previous battleground events, it should mean that it has the potential and a bit more oomph than normal to get further north. I'd not be surprised if Manchester down towards Crewe and Stoke stay completely dry.
However, with that being said, even with tomorrow's sleety/rain mix for the most of us at regular height I'd be very disgruntled not to see at least a think sugar dusting at some point this week. Keeping in mind that there is a small chance of a fleeting shower from the NW at some point. That's another disappointing thing about this week, I was hoping for a Cheshire gap streamer at some point, but bar the odd fleeting shower there is nothing organised appearing at all.
6 weeks of snow chances left to go and at this point we need something special to rescue any good memories from this huge let down of a winter so far.
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These things always trend south, I’d imagine a lot of the Midlands, based on history, especially Birmingham north will stay dry Thursday and end with a sleety mix tomorrow. These are my low expectations, keep them and you will never be disappointed by nothing.
If you are to take a look at the mid range models this morning and the fact we are heading into February, we could really do by taking this chance this week to get some accumulating snow.
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Keeping an open mind on this 1, but Tuesday has trended poorly for anyone north or west of Birmingham. Back edge wet snow that leaves puddles is nothing to be excited about.
On to Thursday I think.
We just can’t get things to fall our way this year.
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13 minutes ago, MKN said:
So the most likely outcome next week. Tuesday's low to far south for any meaningful snowfall. Thursday's low to far north bringing rain to many.
Whilst that is a very negative thought process there is a trend for snow amounts and falling times to be less and shorter so far today. Still, snow chances are fairly high all week and as @bluearmy pointed out, things can and will crop up if we keep the trough close by.
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Next week looking wet rather than white so far. However, the low hasn’t even formed yet so that could change a lot between now and then. Plus, lows are always weakened closer to verification, rather than strengthened.
Dont get any hopes up.
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2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
ECM vs GFS, ICON and JMA and UKMO - hm, I expect ECM to join the crew and make slight adjustments by tomorrow
Let's hope so mate.
Being realistic though, the ICON has been swinging from 1 solution to another (although it did call the failed easterly with the ECM 1st up) and according to the JMA we would all be living in igloo's by now, not forgetting that the GFS should also no longer be in use.
Like I said though, the important part is that the near term is looking, interesting.
Let's see what the GFSp has to say!
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Good 18z GFS for snowfall tonight - quite widespread, something to keep an eye on.
Unfortunately, the ECM has lead the way in the last 2 weeks and if America hadn't made a horrendous decision in making Donald Trump president, the GFS wouldn't even be in use anymore, let alone be anything like reliable.
We need the ECM and UKMO on board in the morning and for these snowy charts to make it, in cross model agreement at T72.
Until then, it is what it is.
FWIW - the short term for once actually looks pretty good, chance of snowfall for the usual candidates over the weekend and early next week.
It could be a lot worse, but my money's on the ECM.
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17 minutes ago, jam said:(Deleted by Blessed Weather)
Erm….enjoyment of the weather?
I'm trying to take It to the extreme a little bit to get it into people's heads that unless charts are within T72 they need to be taken with a monster pinch of salt.
Whereas, the normal trend is to take charts at T168 asif, they are at T6. Then instead of enjoying this thread, numerous hundreds of people that don't suffer weather model run orientated bi-polar can enjoy the experience, rather than have to sit and sarcastically laugh at those that continually build themselves up, misguide themselves and then drown in Prozac a few hours later. Entertaining for a while, but rather ruining the experience lately. Yes it's enjoyable viewing charts in the mid and long term, nobody would be around otherwise - but the balance that needs to be applied to them, sorry, rather the truck load of salt that needs to be applied to them goes amiss and we end up with a ruined thread full of grown adults behaving like stroppy teenage girls.
Gets to a point where enough is enough.
It's no coincidence that MOST of our more knowledgeable, sensible and level headed members chose to frequent the other model discussion more frequently than this 1.
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10 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Very good 144hrs, though probably would signal rain after a brief snow front edge for the south. Still the MAIN thing is getting the pattern in and its a very good sign from the ECM.
I'll gladly take it at this stage.
Ridge coming in behind the low should help to slow the PV over Canada down a little as well and keep the LP on its way ESE.
9 minutes ago, Matty M said:EC T144 not ideal but I will reserve judgement until T168
Here is why it's impossible for newbies to learn anything.
Good or bad why? Where are the charts and explanations as to why they are good or bad?
2 posts, next to each other, within 30 seconds of each other - saying TOTALLY the opposite.
Come on guys.
3 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:Ouch 168 ECM
Thankfully it's at T168 - if even 10% of those had verified this winter we would still be digging out and praying for rain.
Patterns with high verification at T72 is what we should be focusing on. The rest will be gone, or alternative in 12 hours time.
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Midlands Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
The fronts nearly finished with the most of us mate, there won’t be anything going on later bar puddles getting frozen.