[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

I think it needs to be accepted and we all must move on from the fact that early seasonal thoughts on a front loaded winter are a lost hope at this point. Yes it's been chilly, but considering the Atlantic has been locked out for so long (and looks like being so for a little bit longer) the cold air just hasn't been in place for any sort of reward at the surface, despite the pretty charts and great background conditions.

We have been discussing a cold spell and being in the 'best position possible' heading into December for nearly 3 weeks now and at this point, we are already talking about at least another 2 weeks for weather cold enough to produce snow. To me we need to forget everything that has gone now and treat this like we would at any other time...a 2 week chase with plenty of hurdles and issues to get through before we realistically talk about anything interesting at the surface.

I mentioned a few weeks back when I said that patterns don't favourably effect our weather at the surface a month in advance. The climatological bias here is too strong and we are such a tiny part of the world that even the best synoptics today, will have little effect if even 1 thing goes against us at any given point in the next few weeks, so I can't pretend that I'm even slightly excited at the prospect of another 2-3 week carrot dangle. After all the talk, there will be some extremely disappointed folk in here if we don't get a notable, memorable cold spell in the next month or so. 

We HAVE missed the boat on a front loaded winter, the cold air just wasn't there and putting faith in an SSW related cold spell is a very fickle, if not exciting business. 

That being said, the Atlantic is still blocked out and we are in a better starting position that most years, which is a bonus. It increases our chances of a proper cold spell, but it's nothing like a guarantee. A lot of luck will be needed to produce something notable. I can see a lot of frustrated members as we turn into New Year. Hopefully not though. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

I think one of the main reasons there's been a bit of confusion in here that has lead to the bickering in here recently is that some members, those who understand less/have little experience with charts are using some of the comments here as gospel. 

Let's not forget we have now been discussing a cold spell in this thread in a positive light since roughly the middle of last month. It is now the 7th of December and for all bar 0.000001% of the population, nobody has seen falling or settling snow. It has become clear to me, that we will not see widespread falling snow for at least the next 14 days. To me that's a 5 week wait for absolutely zero reward and takes 5 potentially snowy weeks off the table.

We need to be very careful here, that we aren't doing what we ended up doing a couple of winters back. Where there was a similar spell around this time and then the entire of this topic was full steam ahead on a SSW, which eventually happened and delivered zero cold and snow for our shores. It's easy to get caught up in what might happen in a couple of weeks time. The be all and end all here is that IMO, at the surface all of these pretty patterns and great starting positions are as useless as a Bartlett or the Atlantic (other than for keeping this thread more interesting) and unless they deliver sooner rather than later you can end up spending an entire winter flattering to deceive. 

With all of that being said, we are certainly in a much more positive starting point than we are in most December's which is the basis for the active/positive nature of this thread. 

To summarise for those who aren't that great with Chart reading;

- Chilly but mostly damp and miserable for the next few days.

- Milder spell that could be brief or less so. This could also increase the amount of rain we receive. 

- Not cold enough for snow in AT LEAST the next 10-14 days. 

- Good starting position heading towards the end of the month to bring in something more snowy, with no guarantees and a lot of luck needed.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm 00z gave 10-15cms for my part of the world tomorrow!!believe it when i see it!!cold and rainy here today!worse type of weather!!

With the greatest of respect mate, I admire your optimistic posts and love how excited you get over snow fall. But you are chasing the rainbow on this one. These charts that show falling snow, accumulations etc - we need to use our own thoughts on whether these are realistic or not. I suspect there will be the odd local surprise, a couple of miles down the road from all rain, but otherwise it's northern hill tops for any snow and that's been the case all week. 

I was quoted numerous times and given quite the harsh reception when I posted last weekend saying that stagnant/patterns requiring weeks of patience never work out in the UK and that this week would be a chilly, rainy weekend. I also said that as soon as the mid-term started reverting to the climatological norm and people realised the boat had been missed on a front loaded winter, that the tone would change.

I'd have loved nothing more than to be wrong, but it's actually worse than I expected. Lipstick on a pig feels positive at this point. Wet, chilly, stagnant, the chances of snow at the surface are extremely minimal for the next extended period which will take us into/through the middle of December. For the intent of snow at the surface only, this pattern we are in might as well have been a 2 week Bartlett for what it's delivered/going to deliver. Obviously, it's been a lot more interesting to watch than that. What a shame the cold air just isn't there and isn't going to be there. 

Let's see what happens in the mid-term, but the trends are heading against anyone with hopes of snowy spell coming up. Being realistic, 99.9% of posters are here for snow and snow only, so that doesn't bode well for the mood in here. 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

Understandably the topic of discussion is the chance of a bit of wet snow over higher ground this weekend, but as previous messages suggested - the momentum in the mid-long term has swung away from a snowy/cold outlook to an increase of milder/ the climatological norm.

Coming from an avid coldie this is extremely typical and looks potentially like reverting to more standard December like conditions. Even if you could see this coming a mile away. My opinion of this whole last week/next week continues to be pig on a lipstick. I would expect the tone of this thread to follow more along those lines in the current day. 

My advice would for the tiny majority (mostly over hills) to enjoy any wet flakes that fall this weekend as the mid-term prognosis is heading the opposite way to what most will be hoping for thereafter.

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

I posted on Sunday that patterns quickly find a way to revert against us, our cold spells practically never in well over a decade of model watching come from having to sit, wait and patiently hope things fall into place for us (because they don't, a few days later a new pattern is always picked up and 99/100 it's an Atlantic set up) and although there is no consistent signal for the Atlantic to pick up strength, there's been small signs creeping in that after a few cooler days this weekend, we are heading away from a colder set up into the middle of next week. If that happens then I suspect that the positivity we've seen up to now will be replaced a more realistic vibe...this set up is firmly the lip stick on a pig scenario. 

We are very far down the line from anything remotely like a widespread, recognised cold spell with lowland snow. 

[Model output discussion - into the start of Winter]

Fantastic to see something worth chasing so early into the new season this year, it's been an exciting watch and much more preferable to the usual dross.  However, I'm very glad to see people are catching on to what this great looking pattern will actually deliver to the surface. In my near 20 year experience of avidly watching charts on a day to basis, in winter there are only a couple of methods we a get cold and snowy spell to our shores;

1) A cold spell appears relatively out of the blue and has slight upgrades in the couple of days before it lands.

2) A little like the beast from the east a couple of years back,  cold appears in FI, alarming upgrades that smoothly count down without much of a problem. 

It's also been very noticeable throughout that entire time period that as soon as we 'miss the boat' on that first opportunity or start relying on a process of things happening that aren't yet modelled with any consistency, in a time period still over 200+ hours away that's pretty much it for us. Virtually every winter at some point there is an optimistic period of model watching where everything looks like it can't go wrong and in nearly every instance, the exact same philosophies and comments are banded about. Fairly sure the same thing has happened around this time 3/4 times from the last 5 years. 

Absolutely no disrespect whatsoever to any member that has used these comments. I am wise enough to understand that these are exactly what's required and that these comments are absolutely correct, but when any of the below statements are used, it's not a good sign;

'Potential'

'Patience'

'Day 10'

'Slowly slowly catchy monkey'

In the UK you have to be extremely clinical in taking any small glimpse of a cold spell you have and just from my experience, any time we have to sit in and wait for things to unfold down the line, they quickly fall apart and the patience is practically always rewarded...with the Atlantic returning. Let's be realistic, the climatology of the UK means that we are constantly filling up the cracks in the breaking damn wall, it's only a couple of weeks ago charts showing raging zonal winds increasing and members writing off the next month as hideous and zonal. If a pattern can quickly switch against the norm for us (IE Cold) then you see how quickly that Vortex will hug Greenland and the euro slug will slither it's way back. 

If I remember correctly, all the winter musings this year were for a chance of a chilly spell early, 2 months of a strengthening vortex and the Atlantic, with the chance of a late easing into a cold end to February/March. I completely hope that I am wrong, but my niggly feeling is that I think what we are looking at synoptically for next weekend etc, probably is the front loaded winter, the chance of early cold. We have just been so unlucky (as usual) to have not one even remotely appealing cold pool this side of the hemisphere and as soon as that chance dwindles the normal expected December patterns will return. A complete gripe here, but the old 'let Europe cool down and in the next few weeks...' must be one of the oldest wives tales in meteorological history. Yes it's useful, yes it helps - but Europe can be as cold as it wants for a couple of weeks, the second that Euro high, or a Vortex driven zonal spell blasts across Europe, it won't matter one single bit whether it was cold the month before or not, it will be mild within hours. 

My message is though for the casual reader of this thread. Lowland, widespread falling snow anywhere away from Scottish mountains and northern hilltops is VERY unlikely for the next 2 weeks, temperatures whilst chilly will not be freezing cold. My feeling is that we've missed the boat on an early cold spell and anything that is likely to follow after this initial cooler spell, is completely up in the air and climatological norm suggests that we are more likely to be back at square 1 this time in 2 weeks, as opposed to watching smooth transition to snowy cold weather.

Anyway, what I was intending on being a short message has now gone on forever . I very much hope I am wrong and with the way 2020 has gone absolutely anything is possible. A freezing cold December would certainly be rewarding for all of crap that 2020 has provided, I just can't see it. 

Let's see what the 12z has to offer, we now need to focus our attentions towards the day 10 marker, again, to find the pattern after next weekends cold, but wet spell.

 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 15th August onwards]

Fantastic to wave goodbye to this weeks heat, a lot of fun earlier in the week when everything was set up nicely for storms. Areas away from the south deserved the thunder this week, the shoe is ALWAYS on the other foot.

Feels distinctly autumnal today out there and it’s an absolute breathe of fresh air. Especially with it being completely dark prior to 9pm the last couple of nights.

Chance to eek a few more storms out, more especially tomorrow I would say. 
 

It’s been quite a thundery summer overall, which is relief as it’s the only positive of temperatures above 25c. Relatively happy with that.

Tick tock time on summer is catching up now though...dark nights, Atlantic named storms and Autumn are in the headlights! 
 

Very exciting.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

This is unreal. 
 

EVERY SINGLE storm has weakened, avoided me, slipped west, east, north, south and literally got intense 4/5 miles north of me.

This is the 3rd day running it’s happened. 
 

Can anyone help explain this to me? 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Now this goes to the east and just too far north! 
 

Crazy avoidance skills. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Can anyone explain this? 
 

This is the second time in 1 day that storms have built up, weakened just to my south or east, skipped a couple of miles and gone kaboom? This is the exact thing that happened last night!

 

The green shaded area around Rugeley is Cannock Chase. This is higher ground? Something I thought would help. 
 

This beggars belief! Is this something geographical? 
 

The 1st video is tonight, the 2nd is yesterday. 
 

@Paul Sherman

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Happy with my call earlier, even though it’s massively annoying for myself personally. Not a satisfying told you so at all. 
 

30-50 miles south of Birmingham, Gloucester/Worcester. The exact areas getting slammed. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still in Rugeley? Certainly hit here last night, but missed all on Mon night

Yep, storm weakened right over me and then exploded/kept itself together towards Stafford, Stone, Stoke etc. We had distant flashes all round, but barely a decent growl of thunder and nothing more than drizzle. 
 

So frustrating and there’s zero heading our way today. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Just now, Norfolk Sheep said:

Glancing blows? Some us would just like a small tap on the shoulder!

Honestly, when you are 15 miles away from Storms of a lifetime, I’d sooner be 125 miles away. 
 

EVERY single storm this week has weakened miles away and strengthened just miles to the north, south or west. Today is going to be a conveyor belt of storms slipping south and west by 50 miles or so. 
 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like we are in the clear here today. Most of the action further S.

Yes a real shame and for those of us that almost impossibly got shafted every day this week in Staffordshire, today’s the last chance at the really wild storms.

Some nice lightning last night, but to miss out with only glancing blows is infuriating. Deeply disappointing week here.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

That's assuming storms don't develop further north though

Of course. At the moment though, everyone needs to be looking due east or marginally south east for their storms. 
 

I haven’t seen one forecast, amateur, pro, modelled that suggests Lincolnshire and points due east are going to explode. In fact, I’m right on the cusp of the northern and eastern limits of the main area.

Hope to be wrong, but I feel like I’m too far north currently. So places 120 miles north of here, should be living in slight hope, but not expectation.

Lets see. I’d wager nobody in England north of Birmingham gets into the real stuff tonight. Especially as the emphasis seems to head west the longer the evening goes.

Happy to be wrong.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

9 minutes ago, SalopWatcher said:

You could get something creeping up there, but I like your prediction based on radar and steering winds. As we are up stream of your prediction area, we could be set for another round, but its a case of how long the developing line goes into the night... few hours before anyone in the midlands can call bust yet though. 

Yes I would say Shrewsbury, that kind of region and more 50 miles south are in absolutely poll position today! Looks great for another round.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

7 minutes ago, hammerb32 said:

There's a storm is South Staffs right now to the NW of Brum

Yes but it’s moving westwards, not north. 

If that’s the case for myself, then the likes of Leeds have nothing, the main action is South east towards London. 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

2 minutes ago, Tomtommytom2020 said:

Leicestershire too far north? 

Maybe. 
 

30 miles south of Birmingham and South/West of there are today’s hot spot. North of that and you are struggling massively. 
 

It’s a Birmingham south event.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Just now, summer blizzard said:

I'm a bit concerned about the level of westerly motion to the storms as opposed to yesterday. It may screw us here.

I would be VERY surprised if anything made it north of stoke. There’s a storm 10 miles south of me here (yet again, we are getting SCREWED) and that’s not making it any further north. I’m 25 miles north of Birmingham. I’m expecting to stay dry and storm less, too much of a westerly element. 
 

Somewhere in a line south of Birmingham into towards Worcester is going to get slammed tonight. Further north than that? 
 

Can’t see it. If I’m too far north then Leeds, Manchester, Stoke, Crewe etc have no chance today. 
 

An absolutely infuriating week so far here.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Of course for the third day running a storm builds within 10 miles of Rugeley and decides to shoot west. We have to be one of the only places in a 50 mile squad radius to have every storm on our doorstep just end up glancing us. 
 

Pathetic.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Not to come across as moaning at all, but can anyone explain this last night? Literally everywhere around my location had the storm explode, grow, burst to life and produce the best storm for years.

Now don’t get me wrong, I did get to see a lot of lightning and it was great to watch, but we should have been a direct hit here at points, whereas the weather literally did anything it could to miss us.

Monday the storm grew south of us and then turned into nothing within half an hour, last night we got a good light show but people 10 miles around of me in all directions are taking about the best storm in decades? Today looks like slightly west of us.

Genuine question....is there something I’m missing? Cannock Chase is 10 minutes up there road and surrounds us in virtually every direction bar an easterly one. It’s hard to see much but I took a radar video and fast forwarded/rolled it back. Watch how everything truly torrential builds all around, fades here and then explodes again.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

This is so infuriating. 
 

Literally every storm has stopped, broken apart or completely avoided Rugeley at all costs! 
 

Now BOTH of the current cells are heading directly east and west of us! How unlucky can we be! 

What a joke! 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

1 minute ago, Jamiee said:

You can see the 3 popping showers on Satellite.

Absolutely shafted again in the central midlands.

Last night’s ‘supercell’ turned into drizzle within half an hour and today, we have 2 cells one too far west and the other too far easy.

Shocking.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

All the forecasts are showing a much less stormy week than the what had been built up on this website and social media outlets. 
 

Strike out for the vast majority of the country yesterday, poor elevated scattered storms around today. It’s ripe out there. I was honestly expecting a memorable week, with most of us taking a hammering, repeated bands of heavy storms.

Reality is, there 3/4 main potential days this week, arguably a main 3. We are half way through the second day and so far it’s been hideously disappointing.

Storms are the only thing that makes this vile sticky heat acceptable. For right now, bring on the Atlantic.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Nothing happened here last night (other than some distant flashes) and I can almost guarantee nothing will happen here today too. So I'm feeling a bit cranky too.

As for later on in the week, the N is shown to largely become more devoid of activity as it starts to focus down S...

Starting to feel I'll get the worst of both ends with this one.

Exactly this. 
 

The Midlands was touted as the zone to be this week. I’m very sceptical of that, yesterday looks like it was our best chance. Everything was too far west and the rest of the week looks arguably too far south and/or east. 
 

I always find in these scenarios it’s best to be outside or near the hot zone because the nature of storms change quickly and you tend to find the best of the action is never in the exact location models may show, so that’s a positive. 
 

The only reason this now painfully long, boring and pathetically sweaty extended summer (Don’t forget, summer started in April this year)  is even remotely acceptable is with copious classic storms, so all in all. 
 

Nights are noticeably drawing in. Just a couple of weeks until September and then we can stick the word heatwave into our back pockets for another 6/7 months. Bring on the rain and wind, the Atlantic systems, then hopefully a long pipe-bursting winter!