PolarWarsaw
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Posts posted by PolarWarsaw
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Icon phases the Atlantic with the scandi trough - causes the sw/ne nuance on the base of the troughing that some runs have been showing ....
see if ukmo heads that way in half an hour
The only concern is that the ICON has been similar to the ECM recently in terms of output. Let's see what happens and where we go through the remainder of the afternoon... we did mention that FI is T72 and so nobody can be calling 'DOWNGRADE' every 5 minutes throughout the entire of this evening's suites.
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Mention of rain in the south and hill snow in the north, check.
Potential for snow and colder weather further into February, check.
Usual caveats of covering every single base, check.
Standard MO update that has been virtually the same and will continue to be the same, most of the time, during most winters.
At this point, actually viewing them is pointless. Nothing to be excited about, nothing to be completely doomy about.
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24 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the upper level wind direction this time
Let's hope its more favourable at the right time of day pal. In a true Cheshire gap effect that gives me snow, my showers go right over your head and Stoke in general.
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Looks like we will be in with a shout again of some marginal snowfall next week. Let's hope we stay on the colder side this time.
Until it's within T24 don't get excited or hung up on models and take all snowfall models with a huge pinch of salt - as we saw from the EURO 4 just a couple of days back - they perform awfully.
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Some promising looking charts this morning if it's snow you are after. If I lived somewhere, Buxton north then I would be excited about what next week may have in store. Those in the south are by no means out of the game, as we saw this week - I had no lying snow in the North West Midlands, but places in the SE and Oxfordshire had nice coverings - who stole my Cheshire gap snow?
Story of the winter though so far, don't look at macro details until within T24 - people who will undoubtedly view the GFS snow charts at T120 on today's 12z and then follow up with 'same rubbish all winter' or 'OMG that's big a slap of snow in my back garden next Wednesday at 9PM' need to take a step back. The charts can't nail this at T72 currently, let alone anything further. Low expectations, no disappointments. This island is one of the hardest in the entire northern hemisphere to get snow too and marginal snow, always provides our biggest falls.
The snowy nirvana has been at day 10 since about the middle of December and was also in the same place before high pressure took over in late November.
My advice to you all - is look for the pattern, not the specifics. It makes it very frustrating to try and read a thread that turns into 15 pages of squabbling, when you have someone living on the south coast grabbing the Prozac screaming DOWNGRADE, DOWNGRADE like they are trying to land Apollo 13, whilst Simon from Sheffield is calling it a 'stonker' and stacking his shelves with bread for the impending snowy doomsday.
Just 1 last point, for those of the negative vibe. Please can you not fill this thread with one liners, or snide comments about background signals. If you are of the view point that they have failed, then that's fair enough. But if you are so sure they have failed, you have no reason to keep mentioning it, or even bothering to come back to the thread to comment, do you? The lack of maturity and basic understanding of how the weather works by these said people is ruining what is, one of the best threads year on year on the internet. The downright bi-polar atmosphere makes it near impossible to have any sort of constructive discussion on the output.
Come on guys,
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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
IF that showers keeps up intensity as it approaches. Given how the other showers have behaved, I’m not confident. Should know soon though. Might be this or nothing. No other showers following this one.
Yep, keeping my eye on it! Share please, haha. It’s got another 25 miles to go to get to me.
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Few flakes falling here. Got my eye on a shower just to the west of Stoke @MattStoke are you north or south stoke?
Radar woken back up a little.
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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:
North Westerlies don’t normally let me down. It’s funny watching the showers move SSE in a WNW wind.
Didn’t you only move up here last year though? We were extremely spoilt last year. With what felt like event after event, it’s not normally like that! Haha. It’s ironic, I was only speaking to someone the other day about just how underated last winter was. I do think Feb’s SSW and last winter in general setting the bar high is partly to blame for the wild ups and downs (even more so than normal) in the MOD thread.
May these NW winds bring you snow tonight anyway, will enhance my chances too haha!
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Gutting.
Soon as I saw the direction that huge shower was travelling in and how things looked upstream, the writing was on the wall. There are far more disappointing Cheshire gap effects than amazing ones. However, the irish sea isn't completely dead...keep your eyes on the coast between Liverpool and Preston. That's where anything will come from us.
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
I’m still confident. I’m not writing things off when I was only expecting to have a dusting at this point and that’s what I’ve got. I don’t know why people on here write things off just because nothing has happened before it was meant to happen anyway.
I hope you are right pal, but I’ve seen enough of these to get a good feeling of what’s what. We need to keep our eye out on Liverpool bay to see our showers forming. Only reason I make a correlation to you, is that with this current wind direction, my showers will go right over your head. So keep me informed haha!
I tend to let things play out as seen, but the EURO 4 from yesterday for example, will go on to be a total fail for Wednesday AM. It had swathes of 2CM+ from NW England down throughout the midlands as Far East as Peterborough. That’s not happening. Given the angle the winds just changed too, we’ve gone from being in the focal zone, to, too Far East on the basis of the radar currently.
Fingers crossed though, I will be joyous to be proven wrong!
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Just now, shaky said:
Game over now for everyone east of birmingham!!winds shall soon swing round north northwest!!
They already have mate. The last shower I had followed the exact same path as another huge one, except this is sliding miles to my west.
Shropshire down into the western regions and into Wolverhampton, if you are in these locations, expect to pick a good covering, perhaps and inch or 2 tonight. Predominantly dry with occasional passing flurries otherwise.
Happy to be proven wrong, but I can’t see it. I think @MattStoke may be disappointed this evening as things haven’t fallen for you either today! These gap effects are fickle mate, last winter was a 1 off.
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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
Aye, somewhere will get a wallop, might be Cannock, and areas just to the south and west, winds for here look perhaps too northerly
Yes we need WNW winds, NW winds for some reason tend to see our showers slide down a few miles to the west but smash Dudley, Wolverhampton etc.
These Cheshire gap effects are exciting because it means we are in play. However, I can remember perhaps, 3 maybe 4 over achieving, solid events, that left more than a sprinkle. 1 being last February, 1 Christmas 2004. So whilst they are exciting, they are more often a miss than a hit for the North Central Midlands.
Just so happens that today’s PPN all arrived at the worst possible time, IE the middle of the day. Will keep on radar watching but have seen enough of these (we get at least 1 attempt every single winter) to be understanding that I won’t wake up to a covering let alone measurable snow tomorrow and despite being somewhat premature, this will be another of those events that keeps my feet firmly planted whenever I read the words ‘Cheshire gap effect’
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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
next lot miss here to the SW. Telford again, going to get it all
Mentioned about an hour ago, the next 2 hours or so, someone between Birmingham, Wolverhampton and those northern Birmingham suburbs are going to get a good covering. That shower is huge.
Could see an hour ago that the axis for the shower building was heading perfectly for that. Judging by radar, that will be the biggest snow dropping shower of the night.
Radar’s dead behind it.
Latest EURO 4 puts us just east of the main zone. Feel for those in the East Midlands that haven’t seen a flake. Appears to be all she wrote for them and most likely for us too. But that area has been reduced and dragged too far west now.
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Just had some of the largest snowflakes I can ever remember seeing in Rugeley. Turned the grass a bit slushy. Everything about today has been timed poorly.
A lull for a few hours would be great. Let things ice up and then go again. As it is, any slush that just formed is now a puddle already.
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Height making all the difference here. Just rain with the odd sleety flake still at 90M. These streamers are so hit and miss, seen plenty of them fail and I will be very surprised if I see any lying snow tonight.
I do fancy early evening to produce for somewhere like Stoke and further South the regions just north and west of brum.
Similar to last December but with lower totals. It’s just not cold enough.
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Pretty frustrating to say the least to see pictures from the likes of Oxford with a CM on the ground whilst we are predominantly having a swim in our puddles.
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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Methicks it was just timing, lunchtime/to marginal, if that band had come through at 7am this morning it would of been snow all the way.
Yeah I agree mate, that’s why tonight is the key period. I’d rather we stayed as dry as possible until this evening.
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:Can tell it's becoming less marginal. Proper flakes instead of sleety rubbish.
Just had more snow in a heavier shower, still rainy overall though.
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2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:
Just sleet is the best I've seen so far today, a right wintry mix in looking at the radar.
Hoping the radar will lead to more red/pink later.
I’m thinking by about 7PM onwards it will have done. If it doesn’t, then this will fall on the ‘fail’ side as today’s daytime just isn’t cold enough.
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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Doesn't matter how wet the ground is. Snow will settle if its cold enough. Seen snow settle many times on absolutely drenched ground after hours of torrential rain.
As have I. But I’d rather the ground was dry to start with, much easier to take advantage of every single flake then. When in, showery setups that can be hit and miss that’s vital, especially when only small accumulations are on offer.
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I’d rather miss any showers until sunset at this point. We need to be as dry and cold as possible for tonight to ensure any falling snow sticks and doesn’t just melt on impact. Not forgetting showers lose intensity after dark too.
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
It’s only 1pm. It’s later this afternoon/evening and through tonight that the fun starts.
Indeed, if you run through the Euro 4 MAPS they only show steadily accumulating from 6PM this evening, ahhh is when it’s dark.
Low expectations though, I’ve seen enough NW episodes to realise you can flip a coin between a decent event and loads of puddles.
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Steady rain in Rugeley, not even a wintry element. Need to stay dry today and hope tonight brings something better. Either that or there will be nothing but puddles to look at through the window. 90m ASL here though so low expectations.
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6 minutes ago, joggs said:
Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.
Can't have factored in the ssw??.
Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.
A day or two off from model watching me thinks.
Only If you completely ignore the fact that models, when an active period of weather is shown have completely failed to actually verify at Day 7, let alone Day 10 for pretty much this entire winter.
If you wish to take anything seriously at that time away then that's your prerogative.
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Well, there is NO covering it up. The ECM was on the ball last night and has carried this entire cold spell. We have indeed missed the boat and need to wait for the pattern to recycle - could be a couple of days, could be a couple of weeks. I'm still optimistic though, we will get some sort of snowy spell before winter is out. Though we are starting to get to the point now where we NEED one of these cold spells to actually verify before this winter is tucked into 'one of the biggest let downs in history'.
For your own sanity though, I'd suggest only taking things as gospel when they get to T72... if you are to take one message alone from this winter...it's not to take days 7+ as anything like gospel. These seasonal models are good to look at...but the chaotic atmosphere continues to make them look stupid, time after time.
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Spoil what mood mate? We've got no cross model agreement of anything inside T72 or T48 - until that happens, then take everything as anything but gospel.
Models have told us this all wintrer.