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PolarWarsaw

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Posts posted by PolarWarsaw

  1. Tonight is going to be all about getting in the dark blues/greens. Any extended period of time under those is going to see accumulations getting much bigger, much quicker. A few miles down the road in the lighter shades are going to struggle for a covering. Eyes on the 'green zone' to my south. If that stays with its intensity and stalls for numerous hours. Then the calls of 5-10CM look good, if it doesn't - a lot of people are going to be in the lower end of 1-5CM. 

  2. 18 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

    That weather warning that is expected to affect the West Mids is forecast to reach northern england by this evening, if so, it had better get a shift on.

    Forecasting timings on snow is literally almost impossible, as we saw yesterday and have seen all week. You need to keep an eye on radar and forget warnings, apps, delayed TV forecasts. Some of the models show it stalling over the midlands until after midnight...if it's any slower than that it will be the early hours. Radar is your friend.

    • Like 1
  3. The band is supposed to pull together and organise as it comes north. Anyone thinking it's going to be Armageddon with Orange on radar is badly mistaken, it's a weak affair with patches of heavier stuff - you just need to hit the jack pot there. I'm hoping it comes later, when it's dark. That way it's going to stick. There's a thaw going on as we speak - if it falls this afternoon in daylight there's no chance of accumulation. We need that wind to slow down or else it will be a repeat of yesterday. 

    Not expecting much here, south of Birmingham again today. 

  4. 2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    If past composites are anything to go by we will see the most pronounced effects from the SSW some time at the end of March/early April (about 40-50 days after the SSW). Just because zonal winds have returned in the stratosphere it does not at all mean that mild zonal will dominate. Though yeah it is difficult to see where the next blocking, if any, would come from.

    My thoughts precisely, lots of springs in SSW years have been cold, chilly and extended winter (albeit not cold enough for lowland snow). After a record breaking SSW I really do think it could be a very chilly spring, by spring standards (not snowy, before people start accusing me of working for the Express :D). It will definitely be interesting to see if this spring follow suite. If it does, then you would have to build a case for a Jan/Feb SSW being linked to a very cold spring. 

    Here is hoping anyway....It will be mild enough aplenty for all in the....you know....the next 8 out of 10 months of this year. We can all wait a few more weeks! :cold:

    • Like 2
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  5. 21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Actually looking ahead in the models and it would appear a return to more normal weather may be here before long.

    Both the AO and NAO are rebounding, the zonal winds have returned to westerly, and by day 10 on the ecm we have our semi permanent features back in their usual spots - Azores high, Iceland low, PV wrapped back up over the North Pole. We manage to keep hold of the cold air for a while, so nothing warm just yet....but the slow move from winter to spring will be underway next week!

    As we saw at the end of March 2013....late season SSW's don't tend to favour ANY sort of mild spring, let alone one in early march. I suppose this year will be a learning curve, given we have just seen a record SSW. I wouldn't be surprised either way our weather tended, but my own personal thoughts are that it will be the very back end of April before jackets and jumpers can go back in the closed compartment of the wardrobe for a few months. 

    It's been quite a dry winter too, certainly in different months. A nice wet summer would go down a treat, especially if it involved thunderstorms aplenty. I do fancy a very typical 'Polar squally showers' kind of spell throughout April also. Should be one for the convective cameras.

    • Like 3
  6. 4 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

    And now the met office have took the heavy snow symbols off coventry for later on in less then a hour..the met office have been disgraceful in this cold spell

    Not being funny mate...but there's a lesson in itself and a note to everyone!

    DO.NOT.USE.AUTOMATED.APPS.IN.COLD.AND.SNOWY.SPELLS. 

    They swap and change based on a computer....no human actually edits these symbols. 

    They are beyond useless, it's basically like playing a game of 'will the weather symbol change when I refresh or not'.

    • Like 2
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  7. It's been a very good day so far - can't believe how such slow snowfall rates could not only stick to main roads and cause chaos, but could also cover over previously gritted areas. Just goes to show how cold the air/ground is. 

    Unfortunately, the front is really noticeable taking a left turn out towards the west now, the snowfall has virtually stopped at this point and I can't see it returning with any sort of vigour.

    That being said, we have 7-8CM's in areas untouched by the winds and drifts of almost 2 ft to exposed fences. 

    If this had been 100 miles NE, we'd have been talking about one for the ages. 

    Can anyone back up Shefali's thoughts regarding Tomorrow/Saturday/Sunday with any sort of PPN charts? Seems outlandish to me, other than perhaps tomorrow. 

  8. Just now, MKN said:

    I think our best hope as a region is that as it approaches it gives this light snow thats around a bit of a kick so we get something that give at least a complete covering from it. 

    This is pretty much what I'm looking for. Anyone due north of Birmingham or east, you want the eastern side of the PPN to expand as far eastwards as possible whilst retaining as much of its intensity as possible. For example, I know that if we get any of the main band to say, Leicester, then it HAS to either completely evaporate or it will travel NNW right over Derbyshire, Staffordshire etc. 

    So that's what I'm aiming for. When it gets dark, even snow of the intensity of today will start to cover side roads and foot paths again. 

    The main 'event' as such was never going to arrive away from Hereford, Gloucester etc - so operation 'cream as much from the rest' is in full flow - how many do I have joining me? ?

  9. 7 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

    Aperge has it dying a death and not reaching the midlands apart from possibly Worcestershire and Hertfordshire

    This is the same Arpege that showed 15cms as far north as the south of Manchester and across to Derbyshire etc on the 12z yesterday though, which just goes to show the models have no clue. 

    From all models and forecasts you can have a clear idea of the main plays of this system, BUT in terms of small IMBY semantics, as to whether it goes 50 miles east, north etc - then they are nowcasts. 

    Please can we once and finally this afternoon, BIN APP or automated forecasts, they are less use than a chocolate fireguard that was erect in the middle of the desert.

  10. 22 minutes ago, MKN said:

    Yes keep an eye on precip developing around london for chances in our area as its expected to slide north westwards as the low pushes up so some developments to our south east would be welcome. Like you said we dont need a blizzard just continual snowfall of 0.5/1cm per hour would be good over a long period of time. Currently on about 0.1/0.2cms per hour!

    To be honest, I stepped outside and put s foot in the snow, to leave the concrete showing. Even with an hours snizzle the concrete is almost gone, which just goes to show. You really only need a few hours of 'heavy - light' snow to make things white over again by morning. 

    Thats why include so interested in seeing how Far East we can build things. It won't take much to squeeze an extra cover to things out.

    • Like 1
  11. For those north and east of Birmingham, you really want to see some PPN spreading, expanding and growing east of that right arrow if you are to see anything more than 'snizzle' later this evening. 

    The overnight stuff wasn't heavy at all just persistent. If we can get something even less than moderate on radar then there's the potential for a couple of CM's to be added to anything lying now. Big radar watch there this afternoon. 

    IMG_6119.PNG

  12. Massive favour to ask anyone at home/on a desktop. Could someone take screenshots of the BBC national and midlands today forecast maps at 1.30 please? 

    Also - does anyone have the time spare, to check out the HIRLAM, Arpege and GFS for the 3 hour PPN breakdowns between now and SATURDAY PM - just so we can see how they look, see when looks favourable for any PPN and to compare when it's all said and done? 

    Would hugely appreciate that. 

  13. 12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Short ens for London on the 06z showing good support for less cold air at least in the south next week

    graphe_ens3_ftz2.thumb.gif.f86e35ec2226276cd5aac3976b3c698d.gif

    Should see temps get up to around 7c instead of at or below zero :)

    Indeed, if we are taking the 6z GFS as gospel - then that rise in temperatures won't be around for long. As above, the further north you go, the colder the graphs too. 

    • Like 2
  14. To be honest, I was hoping Emma would be further east, but judging my radar and models. It's actually further west than originally thought - not east. 

    All but guaranteeing a dry evening - CERTAINLY from brum northwards. All I can say is thank god for that streamer last night and this AM. Can't moan too much. 

    But it's really so annoying how all of the 'main events' have missed us as a region. You do have to wonder with tomorrow's potential system whether this may occur again then and really stick a knife where it hurts. 

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