chris78

Think it was probably to close to the broadcast to change the script

I hope your right and for those inland you may be. But for the west coast there is very little chance. Every time its marginal like this I say it won't snow here. Nine times out of ten i'm right and disappointed to be, one in ten i'm wrong and happy. I is only -0.5 here and the warm air isn't here yet, come on west coasters its always tough to get snow here and this one looks like a no go (for the coast who knows for inland)

Sorry to bang on about my trees.......do we have an idea of how frosty Friday night Saturday morning its going to be?

bbc see us getting to 6 on sunday.....if thats the case I hope we dont see snow will be very quickly mush

from the model thread......i know this is difficult to predict but ...its looking very much like rain for the west of the region...history (1996 excluded) and the models are telling us this TEITS As im rather unhappy with my description of this weekend i've put together a simple map which is based on all the model output this morning which also includes the past 3 GFS runs. Excuse the lack of straight lines because i've had too much coffee. The blue line indicates the ideal location at the moment for the simple reason it has the greater error of margin because even a slight shift W or E brings this area into play. The yellow line on the other hand cannot really afford much of a shift W because otherwise the snow won't reach them. The red line is the area which does need to see a shift W otherwise it will be snow turning to rain. Areas W of the red line look unlikely at the moment because I cannot see a big enough shift W to bring them into play. I will add the above doesn't mean other areas won't see snow but the above is related to who sees a snow event i.e remaining as snow and not turning to rain. snow map.png Doh beaten to it....

Looks like I still can't call this. ecm keeps us pretty cold probably keeps the ground frozen Gfs up to six degrees on sat that would surely thaw things ?

Cheers BT.....do others agree? still think i may leave cancelling till friday....?

I know from the uncertain situation that my question may be unanswerable, but ill ask anyway...... I am organising the planting of a community orchard in Preston this Saturday, due to start 10;30....now a light ground frost is ok ...we can scrape of the frost and plant the trees...however a deep frost is another matter, for example today would have been a no go, even though it was 3c by 10am the ground was pretty solid......now it seems that Friday to Saturday could see milder air.......Id like a few opinions, how do you rate my chances of the ground being relatively thawed by 11 am Saturday? I know most of you are rooting for it to still be cold (i have mixed feelings) but please try to be unbiased. Thanks in advance Chris

Wow three people say they have seen huge snow flakes and others get all nit picky about the exact size aren't people odd. And they looked tennis ball sized to me

We had snow flakes not far off the size of tennis balls today biggest I've seen

Knightrider Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't it already been developed for a few days now? Hence why they started making predictions as long ago as the weekend :unsure: how can they make predictions about LP's that havn't developed and therefore where never there before hand? the low hasnt been there since it appeared on the models...the models predict it to appear...that is what the models do......so when you said earlier how this was embarrassing for the meto...perhaps you want to take that back, its not easy predicting the path of a storm that does not exist yet...

may i remind you the last few models have it futher south...what do you want the meto to do.....they are warning people, they are saying its unpredictable.....aghhhh

Meto bashing is totally ridiculous 1) They have always stated lots of uncertainty about the storm on Friday, if you got exited thats your problem. 2) weather forecasting as a science is in its infancy, if you cant cope with that get another hobby or become a meteorologist and sort it out. 3) the guy who compared it to US hurricane forecast a) comparing apples and pears B) they dont predict with great accuracy four days out at all 4) all this rubbish about them not saying this or that as it causes panic....grow up....they provide info as they see it at the time (and normally point out uncertainty), its up to us to respond to it, the meto is not your mum. anyway dont worry there will be another major 'event' in F1 for you to get all exited about soon.....

Hi all, good to be back when are we expecting thing to reach a peak here?

Met office had main warnings for nw yesterday......can anyone tell me if that is looking less likely as events unfold?

I have no idea as to how the climate is changing....or more importantly how human activity may be impacting on that....Village I dont believe you or anyone else does either..so im not sure why you are so convinced...and to all those who are convinced human activity has NO effect, if you are right..what does that mean....we are free to use whatever the earth has to offer with no regard to anything.....I find it hard to understand why people are so pasionatly against the green/climate change movement....even if we arent impacting climate...surely using les resources....being more sustainable and reducing a dependancy on finite fossil fuels are good things anyway????????? we all consume too much and need to cut down....get over it!

Do you think its sometimes knee jerk to say climate is changing, on the basis of a couple of cold winters...im not saying it is or isnt but....as a gardener it used to drive me mad seeing people suggesting the planting of exotics on the basis of 'milder winters'....just because we had 20 year of milder winters.....they were always going to come back.....20 years is the blink of an eye.

yeah was a lovley day to be out and about!

what a beautiful day.....lovely blue skies.....even felt some heat in the sun early afternoon...wonderful!

Wow that made really interesting reading.....some sound so knowledgable......well thought out...logical...convincing and then totally wide of the mark. A friend if mine is a much more enthusiastic weather watcher than I ...studied some aspect of weather for a phd...he predicted a mild winter, again with very well thought out reasons......I told him it would be like the ice age....more out of mischief making than anything else........must be very frustrating that all that knowledge and study.....and long range forecasts are basically a guess that has no more value than a guess from a total novice.

Posted Today, 01:20 As we head into March, these situations tend to have low dewpoints - where you can easily get snow despite air temperatures well above freezing. But any real settling is limited to overnight and morning periods generally in England. The minute the sun pokes out, any lying snow of a thickness less than about 3 inches will clear off in a jiffy. The snow overnight Thursday/Friday last week made a good attempt to hold out, and it was getting topped up until Tuesday. In sheltered areas there was 5 inches, in areas exposed to not even sun, a transient cover of an inch or nowt. But the uppers weren't terribly cold. Only cold cloudly conditions can maintain snow cover on low ground in England as we get into March, because the thaw by day will be rapid. Great to see -10C 850s possibly, but these will still see daytime maximas of +3 or a bit more. You'd need to have quite a lot of snow on the ground not to see it reduced to nill during daytime. Seen some surprises before a la Sunday/Monday. I remember something like this starting off as a rain event but went on to give a foot of wet snow in the early 90s in North Yorks. The BBC forecasts just said heavy rain, and outside of the Radio Cleveland area it was never mentioned in the outside world. Nominally it couldn't happen until now because the SSTs were too high. So I would suggest a swift bit of nowcasting on Sunday to see whether something might be on the cards. The Met Office seem to have thought so on their clicky clicky forecast weather bits for the past 3 days, but haven't put out any warnings, despite have the dubious heavy snow cloud directly over this southern part of the East Midlands. I had a client in from Vienna yesterday, it was even warmer there - upto 13C. So The cold air in this easterly needs to make quite a sudden impact. I saw this post in the model chat its opening summed up how I feel about cold/snow in march. While everyone has different reasons for wanting the weather they want I find it surprising that so many members still want cold and snow, even heavy snow wil be slush in minutes, I had really thought people would be ready for spring by now????

yeah I thought that...does that mean met o dont give that chart much creedence?

yeah just noticed a few double figure minus's...was it predicted to be so cold tonight....how far south will that really cold air get?

....very confused from reading above, some posts delighted with model showing a return to deep cold, another saying hints a return at mild and others claiming unanomous model agreement showing mild on the way....as yet I cant read the charts so come here for an idea of whats on the cards...and on the cards is... very cold, average temperatures leaning towards seasonally mild???? By the way I cant wait for some warm weather now and I think the cold lovers numbers are now declining. Out of interest, would cold lovers really rather have a cold march, with the chance of a couple of cms of snow (at best) that turns to slush within hours, or beautiful spring days. Ok the models may be warm wet an d windy (I dont know) but as long as itwarm I dont think I care.

Hi guys as we move into this colder spell Im planning my working week, (im a self employed gardener) Now i dont expect anyone to have a crystal ball but can anyone give me an idea of hard ground frosts are likely to be here in the west....light ground frosts and i can pretty much crack on......ground solid for a week and im stuck.