thegreat316

Quick update from myself Not looking great for today-see below this will continue, with bands of ppn coming up from the SW heading N untill monday. There could be a stronger LP moving up from the Azores and heading up the western side of spain, france and hitting us. the 6Z GFS has the low around 985mb and would not be a cause for concern. However NOGAPS and GEM show it strengthening GEM shows a low of 970mb with much tighter isobars As does Nogaps After this low The ECM shows a ridge of HP developing at around t+168 heading north centering around Scotland, this in turn provides easterlies for the southern half of the uk starting at around T+192 and then strengthening. Cold nights and snow showers by day. GFS 6z Shows the the HP developing further west and bringing in easterlies faster by around T162 in the south, at the same time LP'S will cut underneath and this would cause widespread snow in the south.

Sun out now on the southcost, absolutely beautiful day, clear blue sky. Feels like summer . would be out in the garden if it was not flooded!. However the future looks bleek for us in the south east. Look at whats heading for us next. fun Im going go enjoy the sun on the beach

I lived in lewes when it got flooded a few years back, truly amazing rainfall. The meto were really good then to. i remember the schools being closed halfway through the day despite it hardly raining. Next day most of lewes under water. update from ian on the sw thread "Weekend snow threat is further north based on current ensembles but it's irrelevant: potential for some noteworthy weather anyway into Sunday; the latest UK-GM just received looks very wild; and as the UKMO Ops Centre folks note to us: "There remains a large spread in deterministic and EPS output regarding intensity, track and timing of major low moving towards the UK from the S/SW this weekend, largely because this system is yet to form and originates from an area well south of 'more traditional' breeding grounds for major lows (it originates as a kind of triple point wave ESE of Florida later today/early tomorrow and tracks towards the Canary Islands before turning North late this week)." Could be very interesting indeed...." reports of sleet in pompey as well...

Indeed, Yamkin just showing that other models showing the potential for snow. He never said it will snow. I for one want to see all the models. i dont want this to turn into the model thread, where if you mention any potential for cold or snow in the south, badboys will come in and tell you off. Just because ecmwf,ukmo,gfs show rain doesent mean it will be just rain, we seen all the models flip within 24 hours before. we only need minor tweeks to give us chances of backedge snow. I will expect rain this week, but if i see any signs of snow i will post them on here like yamkin does.

Indeed looking at t+60 the Lp system swings across the the uk, and at t+72 it brings in cold uppers much faster on the backedge then the other models. Would be some very nice backedge snow IF it came off. lets hope other models follow it :lol: Still think friday onwards on the the ecm- gfs could start to look intresting as we we get into next week.

Indeed as we head towards spring it will get warmer. As we head towards summer it will get even warmer, and by next winter it will get cooler, thats the way i see it, no hopecasting from me...... eventually your call for it to get warmer will be right i have no doubt. It does seem as though each succesive lp system could attack further and further north introducing the long term trend for a milder uppers. Even when we eventually fall into a system of average temps, there still could be nice blast of easterlies in early spring. A few GFS FI evoloutions show how this could progress. 18Z soon to roll out, hopefully these LP systems are further south like the UKMO 12Z and the colder uppers stay further south.

Indeed, will be intresting to see the next few frames after this one on the NAE.

Our best chance on the south coast would be for one of the Low pressure systems to only clip the south coast. we want to stay on the northern side of the low so the warmer air doesent get mixed in. Even in this set up it can still be marginal right on the coast due to the modified air coming of the sea. If you look at the above charts i posted, you see the difference with the wednesdays LP system being forcasted. the 12z shows us on the northern side of the low where the 18z shows us on the southern side. one brings rain, the other we have a good shout of snow

Hew KW, Wed's Lp is i think the 4th LP system in a row that has moved further north, the one from yesterday was forecasted as a channel low, so is the one forecasted for sunday/monday. Usually in these setups you find the pattern shift south, but it keps on shifting north leaving us in the south east in the warm sector. Yes wednesdays LP as shown on the 18z could give us backedge snow what was showing on the 12z was much more impressive. I hope the NAE has the setup more correct, could be some nice snow for north of london

Yup light ppn tomorrow afternoon, after that its rain, rain and more rain. Even our F.I Low pressure system on wednesday is further north, bringing us more rain. well im going go to bed, and dream of a pattern shift in the models.

Some nice looking showers around, especially around 50 miles inland. They are quite spurse though, would be nice if they banded together:)

wow! thats good to hear, thought it would be mostly rain in the daytime. nice showers moving along the south coast

Quick input from myself before i pop out Well today some of us could see some light showers, rain/sleet in the day, snow in evening. tomorrow looks dry, tomorrow night an area on ppn moves up from the south west. The GFS is showing mostly rain, maybe some frontal snow NAE showing the ppn not getting as far north, might see some nice frontal snow though in the southern half of the s.e then on monday we will see rain moving up from the south west. as this moves away and drags in cold uppers behind it, we may see some brief back edge snow. Yesterdays 18z had maybe 6 hours of backedge snow the 6z today has virtually none. Then looking further ahead, we have another low moving in on wednesday, this time its weeker and doesent push in the warm uppers, so there is more chance of snow for our region. though this will change nearer the time

Nice channel low the way it should be oh and look at those uppers coming in. i like!

ME too, really want to see this patten shift, looks like a battleground scenerio for the next week or more with us in the south always on he side of cold rain not cold snow. comon easterly or at least shift it 100miles further south

Got to laugh 18z GFS has saturdays event to far south, and has mondays event to far north. we might not even get rain here now. Expect many changes Could get back edge snow on monday, thats somthing

Our saturday event has shifted much further south, Turns out to be a non-event Further ups and downs will occur still though im sure THX Tamara great to have your input in here. If you mention cold in the model thread Badboys will giver his usual mild speech.

Great summary. People like me right on the south coast still wouldent see much if any snow on tonights ecm, very hard for snow to fall on the coast in this setup due to the flow of the wind. Just want to see one great snowfall event for london, they really have not seen that much this year. By tonights ECM there could still be one last hurrah. Lets hope for us in the south east the pattern gets shifted even further south Yes, but its still good to see the uppers further south then on the GFS 18Z, Lets see where the trend lies after tomorrows 0z ECM. wouldent be surprised if it shifts further south as t+0 arrives. maybe wishful thinking on my part

Indeed, things are getting pushed north. Much more marginal for us in the south. Still could get some snow further north of us on saturday, but after that it goes downhill. still lets see what tomorrow brings, seen bigger turnarounds. looking foward to doing some things in the garden, would rather it be v.cold or warm, dont like no mans land with lots of rain!

yes, Well at least as you show we have a snow event entering the reliable timeframe on saturday, obvouisly the further north of our region will fair better, but things could still change. the 12z run is quite differnt then the 6z in the 72-102 timeframe, much stronger lp moving across the country, pushing up the warmer air. after a few more runs we can see if this is a pattern or a one off.

looks good for the northern half of our region on saturday, but look at the difference of the uppers on monday from the 6z conmpared to the 12z might be rain even in the midlands Turns out to be a snow storm for the north, and when the cold uppers return to us the ppn is out of our region

Looks like being a great week, weekend and even start of next week. System after system from the south west pushing into the colder air. The midlands could really see alot of snow, Even London could see somthing special. Depending on how far north the lows go the bottom 50 miles of the uk may just see rain/sleet, Could be snow at times. As others say its nice to have really cold conditions, but its better to have heavy snowfalls, even if the later winter sun could melt it. I remember before we had the easterly the Gfs kept on putting it back before it finally came in. Some were saying a few days back that the mild air will be in the southern half of Englad by monday. Cant stay cold forever so milder air will come in, but how it will take is up in the air. Here are the GFS o6z for the last week showing what it forcasted for next monday the 18th feb I think it makes for intresting veiwing in relation to the milder air coming in.

Yes is goood to see the meto and GFS roughly agreeing, im sure every run will have these snow events further south or north. missed us on the 12z perfect for imby on the 18z. no doubt at t+6 it will be up in the midlands with rain for the s.e

Great fax to

There are two main areas of snow risk Saturday and sunday night/monday. The 12z GFS had the patten further south meaning we had more chance of snow on the saturday event but had the sunday night snowefest in the channel. the 18z has the patten further north. More rain then snow on saturday, still could be a bit around, But a lot of snow coming in from the channel reaching much of the south east on sunday night. you choose which is better. dont forget, that there still is a chance of snow tomorrow night in the northern half of our region, the meto raw output has this further south.