thegreat316

That may have been for todays event, dont know. tomorrows event looks to be going a very similar way to todays. South east just missing out:wallbash:

the front moving up from the south west, looks like being a rain event for most of us, more north western parts of the S.E should hopefully see rain to snow. Not untill the weekend will the conditions be right for snow Latest NAE +36-48

Lol, if these came off the folks up in the midlands would moan, cause we stealing there weekend snow!

cold Uppers further south on the 12z, Every GFS run seems to bring em further south. liking the snow fest on the t+72 hour chart, if only i could see that at t+06

Sadly your right the NAE shows this band moving NW, will be dry for us on the coast tonight. over the next few days theres a number of different fronts moving in/out of our region which could provide a few snow events for some parts of the south east

Hey BB looking at the 12z GFS up to +180 it shows several Possible snow events in the south from tonight. The far south coast i.e ten miles from the sea may not see much snow, but those further inland will if it verifys. The gfs upto 180 clearly brings the uppper temps further south then what was showing a few days ago and is showing that as we head into the weekend marginality will reduce. i would be surprised if even us on the south coast dont see SOME falling snow in the next 7 days.

Yes the ppn behind the main front is joining it, though this front over the nw of our region still is not moving north or south

I know its been in the same spot for hours with some intense ppn. if it maintains its intensity, as it moves back nw there could be heavy snow, might just miss our region though. lets see wat happens.

I know! could of been 20cm of snow rather then 20mm of rain, oh well.

New meto warnings for............... cted Warning type Valid from Valid to London & South East England: Brighton + Hove E Sussex W Sussex Heavy Rain 1248 Tue 16 2100 Tue 16 Outbreaks of showery rain are expected during the rest of this afternoon and into the evening. Some of this will be heavy bringing 15mm in three hours locally and up to 25mm in places by mid evening. The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice regarding traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads. Issued at: 1249 Tue 16 Feb the ppn towards the IOW looks intense,

i agree that this is the most likly outcome, however theres still a small chance that we see rain to snow, snow to rain events this week into the weekend. Although us in the south of this region will likly see alot of rain, those further north stil could see a few snow events.

Yes its very fustating in winter, looking out your window seeing rain and knowing that 10 miles inland theres snow! Have fun, think i might find my nearest hill and drive up it, to see if i can find sleet. :lol: Just had a look at NW radar, wow! Some really heavy ppn moving in. could see an intresting mix of ppn in one of them pink spots. shouldent be posting NW radar but have to show it off. net weather radar £3.49 a month. bargin!

Yes its more likly to turn wintry as it backtracks on us later, as it backtracks we pull cooler contential winds. The further north of our region you are the better chance of seeing snow, hence meto warnings. wouldent give much hope for ppl like me on the southcoast p.s Happy bday snowray!

Thx TEITS As TEITS says in the model thread the cold uppers are much further south on the GFS 6z. As fronts push up from the south this week into the weekend there remains a risk of some frontal snow, especially for members more north of the region where marginalty will reduce

Indeed, As shown on the NAE the band does not get as far south and it only starts to pull in the colder feed as it gets ito the midlands. Still the north east of our region has a chance of some snow. London & South East England: Buckinghamshire Milton Keynes Oxfordshire Heavy Snow Wed 17 Feb There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting central and eastern parts of England. Rain will readily turn to snow early on Wednesday and will become heavy at times. This will lead a risk of accumulating snow with 3-6cm possible, especially over higher ground. Snow will gradually die out later. Issued at: 1014 Mon 15 Feb Things can still change, but less likly to see snow in the southern half of our region

That was only what the GFS was looking like, dont trust the GFS ppn though. The NAE is showing the band only turning to snow as it backtracks towards the midlands. Guess we will wait and see what the met office advisories say later

I saw that too. Looking at the unreliable GFS 6z, it shows the band of ppn not getting as far S.E. My fear yesterday was it getting to far S.E looks like the oppiste may occur. As the PPN band comes south it will most likly be of rain, we needed it to pass over us and backtrack, as it backtracks we get a cold feed from europe, giving us a surface cold. If the band does not get far enough S.E then only those in the north west of our region will see snow for any period of time.

Good point, just saw Nicks post in the model forum, hope he doesent mind if i post it in here "Regarding the situation for snow Tuesday into Wednesday its quite a complicated set up and this chart shows why: http://www.weatheron...V=0&ZOOM=0&WMO= To the se over France and the Low countries the dew points are much lower and its where the front stalls and begins to push back further west that the initial snow chance is, as this front pushes back west a surface feed develops from the Continent, at the same time you have relatively cold air heading south, areas along the front with heavy precip could see this change the rain to sleet and snow but the greatest risk isn't actually where the coldest upper air is,the front is expected to weaken hence I can understand why the far se is the area mentioned as highest risk as this is likely to have the heaviest precip and greatest chance to see those lower dew points before the front weakens. However even though its only 48hrs away the boundary between the PM and continental air is still open to some change either way." nick sussex Will be good if i can see you excited one more time this winter. This forum bursts into life when yamkin is excited :)

I remember that in 2009 was stuck in a london car park, wouldent let us out because of the intense snowfall. the snow line keeps moving further south east. was the spine of the country, then the east side, now just the S.E E.A. Bit worried that it will be moved further east out of our region completly. If the front stalls into northern france and doesent back track, we could miss out. will be alot happier if the meto advisory is still their tomorrow night. :-)

It really shows how even in a marginal set up, IF all the factors go in your favour somthing amazing can occur. if just one thing is out of place, it turns into a non event. "It came together in such a way that even the most aggressive computer model fell well short of predicting the bountiful snowfall. And snow, by its very nature, magnifies forecast shortfalls."

Prime example of how rain being forcasted turns into a snowstorm. Lived most my life in dallas, wish i was there, mum was bragging about it the other day :-) . http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/localnews/stories/DN-snowforecast_13met.ART.State.Edition2.4c0a770.html

^^^^ Agree completly. with them two and even noobs such as snowballz mocking him think he will soon leave this great forum or stop posting. Hope not! back to the weather. had drizzle here last night and today. Glad the advisorys came out for our region and included b+h and iow. usually these are not included if meto think it will be just rain on the coasts. wow that was a great summary by Bren, thanks for bringing that to my attention DanM

Agree Tamara, it can be very hard to forcast, as we have seen already this winter. Even today, a lot of people outside the south east said it would be dry for them this week, but look at the NW radar, showers up and down the country. South east probably has the least showers still, i would be more confident if there were advisorys up now.

And have taken away alearts for east sussex thurs and fri

LOL im sure you will remember that night for a long time! remember you being on here but not posting any pictures! you were getting burried and not letting us see it Swings and roundabouts, some streamers will hit you and some will hit me, hopefully more will hit me Looking good for this week, and into next week. Hopefully the showers will pep up today. I think tomorrow and thursday i will be driving to eastbourne/kent to see the snow