Mr_Pessimistic

oh well, unfortunately my predictions a few days ago for a few flurries mon/tues and the heavier snow progged for wed/thurs/fri never actually materialising has came true. i think this is the third week in a row alot of the charts have been showing snow for our region in fi, and yet again, next week is looking the same, so i think the chances of anything significant this winter are fading fast, i think im jinxed here in diss. on a different point, does anyone have any idea why just north of the wash always gets the ppn, but any further south it fades away? (accept of course kent) as i have noticed this form looking at the radar over the years. is it simply just because of the longer track over the north sea causing more convection for areas north of EA?

That accuweather forecast had me in hysterics! very funny!

ribster - wow 6.5"! - you were very lucky then, as id be very happy with that! here in diss we had 2" in december, then just 2cm in jan, and also only 2" last year (most of which was rain, where just 10 miles as the crow flies to the west towards cambridgeshire, had nearly 1 foot!). also just 10 miles to the east of me this jan had a good 6" in weybread (nr harleston), so yes, in these convection type set ups, it is very hit and miss, and i understand that, i just think i am unlucky with reguards to my location within EA, its either north south, east, or west of me (not just sometimes, but every time! aaaarrrrgggghhhh!). but hey, i could always move! maybee this time will be diffrent, just somewhat skeptical at the mo though, but good luck to everyone anyway!

slater - unfortunately, i feel you are right, here in norfolk/suffolk, we have missed out on all of the snow this winter, and last, so im really not expecting much at all this week. here are my thoughts: monday/tuesday : a few light sleety/wet snow flurries, not amounting to anything due to temps being too high in the day. wednesday: trough falling southwest pepping up showers over north of the wash, missing norfolk/suffolk/essex/kent, but hitting western EA (as always in a northeasterly wind) giving a few inches as it heads south west. rest of week : way out in FI, but deep cold getting put back and never actually materialising. i hope im wrong and we in EA actually get a pasting this time, (seeing as we are always progged as getting worst hit but never do (accept for west or south EA), as it has been something in the region of 15 years now since the last fall of snow of more than two inches here.

sllght coverng here in weybread... Any troughs headng our way?

i think it will be mostly dry for our region accept for the north norfolk coast throughout this northerly, the ppn on sun looks like being to the west of us as always, and the easterly around 7/8th is way too deep in fi and will no doubt be downgraded every day until fizzling out. im certainly not getting my hopes up for any snow.

As someone who has only been model watching this winter, it seems quite obvious that none of the models are copeing very well with this years weather t48+. Because of this, i see no real point discussing runs showing easterlys at t260, or even t144 due to just ending up getting dissapointed due to these never actually coming off. Those who say you can spot trends, im not so sure this is the case either, as these trends probably only materialise 10% of the time. I think the strat temp thread and tech model thread give reasonable indications of likely northern blocking that may occur over the following few weeks, but as for detail, i would not trust any model output over 48hrs at the mo. i know it seems im having a bit of a winge and the reason poeple get excited about fi charts is simply because this is a hobby, or more, as it is for me, i just think some people need to get a bit more realistic about fi, because i can tell you now that this easterly probably only has a 5% chance of actually happening (to the extent that people on here want anyway). I will also be quite suprised if the northerly turns out to be as potent as some are suggesting! Awaiting to get shot down here. (especially saying the above as a newbie!)

hi people, maybee a bit off topic? but I was just wondering, is there any new model predicting systems (such as ECM, GFS) being programmed/created currently, or are the current ones just updated when possible or when new data types/technology become available? thanks.. .

IF this cold spell comes true in a week/10 days time or so, I won't be holding my breath for any snow unless it brings 70mph direct easterly winds with very cold uppers etc. As so far here in south norfolk we have had barely any snow, infact, there has been very little diffrence between this winter and many previous winter inc. Last year. I.e. About 2" total. If there is a e/w battle, the ppn never reaches here, if there is an e'ly, the wind has to be strong enough to penetrate inland, same case with an northerly or se'ly. The ppn always avoids my area somehow, from experience I would say the best places to live in ea with reguards to snow would have to be cambridgeshire, heartfordshire and north norfolk. Suffolk and essex is bad. I can't see this being a lasting event either and probably very marginal around the coasts, ie, me. Good luck to everyone though.

also, im being lazy here as I have not looked at the stratosphere thread, but is there any sighns of a warming event in the near future? sorry, thanks..

hi, im guessing im hoping too much to see any snow here in south east norfolk on wed? as only had 2" so far, hopes been dashed so many times in the last couple of years..

i would say if you live in north suffolk or norfolk, there is very little chance of any decent snow over the next few days, same as since this cold spell started, and before christmass. the bbc also is showing very little ppn for the above areas. we have about 2" here in diss, the snow is Always a day a way and will continue to be, and change at the last minute. sorry to be a bit pessamistic, but based on past experiance, i think it will be the case. one day, possibly over the next few years (due to cold winters often coming in clumps, and the lagging effect of the curerent solar minimum and other factors), we will get a good dumping with 6 foot drifts like we had back in the good old 70s and 80s.

it seems to me from past experience that north norfolk including norwich often gets a good dumping, like it has at the mo, 4 or 5 inches, and ipswich often gets a good dumping as is the case this time (as was the case before xmass too) if you are dead inbetween like I am, we receive very little, such as at the mo having about 2inches total from this whole spell. PPN always splits in two and heads north or south of me, as the radar proves again today, ipswich will get the ppn from the southern north sea area, while norwich will get that northern blob, nothing inbetween though. This as I said is Always the case, I am expecting about half inch total from now till monday, but would love to be proved wrong but very much doubt it. Sorry for the rant but just getting a bit fed up now.

I've been predicting for a week now that the main ppn will fall to the south of norfolk/suffolk, looks like this will be the case now, as it always is. Its so strange how ppn ALWAYS avoids EA, it either goes north or south or both, every cold spell, every year. Hate to be pessamistic, but im just being realistic.

I don't suppose those beefy showers in the north sea would reach my area? sorry I don't have supscription to the netweather radar and have to use my phone for everything!

yes, I think your right about the bbc, they now show lots of snow 'up to 8"' now! I think ill stick to you guys on netweather, though I get the feeling also that it will end up south of ea. I just hope those winds go as easterly as possible, giving me a better chance this time! just been for a great drive on the local airfield, good fun, especially in a complete whiteout, made it home safely though, just!

has anyone commented on the suday event for norfolk/suffolk on here recently? sorry if that has just been asked but I've just come online.. Thank you people..

bbc not showing much for ea now on sunday, looks like just a repeat of today. Just vover two inches here in diss so far for this cold spell.

another day of letdowns, everyy day in this cold spelll so far, including before christmass, and last feb and for the last 15 years. Im sick of it now. Supposed to of came further inland today due to colder uppers causing greater convection! im going to move. Bet anyone one here a tenner suffolk misses out completely forr sundays event.

the bbc 9.30 forecast looked pretty good for the whole of the south east for the next 4 days, especiallly sunday, although im sure that will change by then. Got half an inch here, gutted, but hopefull yet. Couple of thousand years overdue for the next ice age, could this be the beginning!

would any of you knowledgeable folk know what the prospects are for me in south norfolk for the rest of the week? thanks in advance..

virtually nothing here in south norfolk, as I expected, everywhere but here. And im totallly sure that will be the case tomorrow and fri, just like it was before christmass and last feb. Has anyone got some rope?

the bbc are now showing no snow for norfolk and suffolk for thurs or fri now either, surprise surprise. No snow here now for 20 years.

no chance that it will ever reach south east norfolk I spose?

im so gutted, have had 2cm so far in total here this winter, missed out every time, none last year, just rain, none the year before, and now im missing out again. I honestly haven't seen more than 2 inces a year since the early eighties, I must be the most unlucky person in the country. And don't say ill get some thurs because things will change by then as they always do, It will end up being no more than just a few flurries for my area. It always looks so promicing for here just a couple of days prior, then it completely changes, Every time. I should be in the perfect place, but it just never goes to plan. Someone help me im going mad!!!