Jason M
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Posts posted by Jason M
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The METO Deep Dive suggested they think this will likely be a final warming but by the time impacts are truly felt in 2nd half of March its probably too late. A coldish March coming??
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WYorksWeather Come March its all about timing. If snow starts falling during the daytime then even with -10c line it will struggle to settle, especially in the South. If you get snow on the ground though and cloud cover it can linger.
Minute sun comes out though any snow cover will vanish at speed.
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TEITS I think you mean 'eject SE'. At least I hope you do
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As per the case for most of the winter its just a case of chasing shadows around at day 15.
ECM looks very unconvincing to me albeit some of the lesser models look okay deep in FI. Maybe give it a few more days but the fat lady is warming up in the wings!
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WeatherArc I reckon were going to see some heat this summer that will leave people shocked. That chart would be decent in July!
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From looking at the GEFS there is actually a pretty good chance that we will have an almost identical repeat performance of this week in two weeks time
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MJB Look, I hope your right, but as we stand now an insipid easterly is about the best we can hope for. It may not feel toasty at ground level but if frost and 6/7c by day floats your boat that's fine.
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MJB We may well get an easterly. Its unlikely to be a cold one though.
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Plenty of areas may see some snow fall but its going to be a stretch for much to settle. Different in the north and on high ground.
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Don Could easily see that this month.
I'm personally very unconvinced that we will see any meaningful cold spell now. Of course, can't rule it out completely but from the output I'm seeing, it looks like we are headed for a mid lat high rather than northern blocking. I think we will get another high near or over the UK and that will pretty much be that for Feb. A first Spanish Plume of the year as suggested by others is a real possibility.
Lots of water to pass under the bridge before that though, as for many a good old fashioned soaking looks to be headed our way
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Derecho That is very impressive. Would be pretty impressive if we were in April let alone early Feb.
This summer has real potential IMHO. Could be a absolute beast for heat over Southern Europe in particular.
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Yes, would not be surprising to see Iberian heights more stubborn. Maybe we will end up with a west based set up. Scotland would do okay I suppose.
Like all the other good charts though, they are way to far out to be bothered with yet. Story of the winter.
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@LRD There has been a huge change over last 10 years. We were always going to see dramatic winter changes from global warming though as our climate is about competing air masses.
I'm not excluding possibility of seeing snow as a brief northerly or two is just about still in play, but a deep cold, snowy easterly is pretty much off the table now looking at the charts. As always, I hope to be proved wrong!
Come March, I'm after warmer weather though!
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Hard to see anything more than a short cold snap in the foreseeable.
Very hard to shift Iberian heights.
Fat lady is preparing in the wings for winter 2023/24 IMHO.
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10 minutes ago, Matty88 said:
A bit of Friday banter - still have the posts of 2 weeks ago in my head.... I’m confused….
- ‘’features and troughs popping up everywhere’’
- ‘’get the cold in first’’
- ‘’booom’’
- ‘’Game on’’
- ‘’People in the mod thread moaning at people complaining the setup isn’t good enough’’
- ‘’Best Synoptics I’ve ever seen’’
2 weeks later - not one flake for 90% of the country
I should write a book of these quotes really, happens every time
People just get carried away. Truth is that other than for maybe about 24 hours it never looked like anything spectacular. Bit like the early December cold spell. It never really looked all that exciting to me but hey ho, everyone is entitled to an opinion.
The next couple of weeks is going to be like watching paint dry as we chase around the small possibility of an easterly in 3 weeks time! Its the globally warmed UK though, so we can't be surprised.
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Just now, raz.org.rain said:
Model thread has been dead for two hours, I'm assuming it's a very dire setup?
Yes, very dire just about sums it up.
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So, looking through the charts it looks like we will see a period where Iberian heights rule. That bit is nailed on as we have almost 100% multi run / ensemble agreement on this.
Once we get beyond day 8 there is a signal for focus of heights to change focus from Iberia to become more 'mid latitude'. Other than the odd chart were not seeing loads of high latitude blocking but the GEFS for example are mostly pointing to some form of mid latitude high. So, were looking at a UK high (again
) or a one centered initially over southern Scandi or low countries and sinking. Its notable in nearly all ensembles that the northern arm of the jet is overrunning any high.
Where do I think we will end up? Well, I reckon the current GFS opp (12Z) will be pretty close to where we get to. So, colder yes, but a 'beast' is highly unlikely. Lots of time for changes for better or worse though.
If I'm right and like me, you want snow, flights to Athens might be good value
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Well, just had a run through the GEFS at 300 hours. I think the kindest thing to say is that by the time we all wake up this set will be gone
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
One set of runs? It's not like the mild runs are in isolation. All the runs show a lack of high pressure situated in a position conducive to cold in the UK.
Yes, focus of heights is to our south. We will probably see a gradual shift to a more 'mid lat' scenario over the next couple of weeks, but very hard to see a route to anything cold in the extended outlook IMHO. I reckon we will see some pretty charts in deep FI over the coming days but nothing convincing. Maybe 10% chance of a very cold easterly early next month.
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5 minutes ago, AO- said:
I disagree with you for only one reason. I don't see the pv part over Canada Greenland weakening the next two weeks. This means that proper WAA leads to a block in a favourable position (Scandinavia) The only question is how long it will take for the cold to arrive as the cold is pushed back across the Urals the next week. This is the only possibility I see for winter. I could be wrong though, but this option just seems very likely to me.
Can see the argument
It all just looks like another one of those 'close but no cigar' set ups to me. Some tasty looking charts in deep FI but the reality will be a Greek Tragedy as the core of the cold sinks towards Athens.
We could pull in a cold pool from the SE though that could give a few days of deep cold. I think a slightly aggravated Poodle is more likely than the Beast though
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Cheshire Freeze Plant growth and evaporation rates are increasing sharply now. That won't completely mitigate but it will certainly help.