Jason M

No need for met office to come of the fence. There will be plenty to occupy them over the next 36 hours I suspect. The near term could throw some surprises up

In its own way that ECM run would be more remarkable than jan 87. To get uppers like that so early in winter would be astonishing. Jason

Oh no....... At 174 its zonal !!! Or should I say, reverse zonal :-) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=174&code=0&mode=0 Anyone who is unhappy with today's runs needs a new hobby. For early December these charts are mind boggling! Jason

To see charts like these in early December is fantastic. Forget the ECM 240, it might as well be 2400 hours in the future for its accuracy at that range. My main concern has been around a mid lat uk high setting up, and that threat has receded somewhat tonight. Expect the outlook to ebb and flow though as there is no chance that model consistency will be strong at 7-10 days out. A good sign is that the easterly threat is starting to come forward now through the time frames. Jason

Good to see the control run keep the faith, but there are some shockers in there.

Hmm, ensembles are a real mix up to 192. No point going further. There is 3 way split, between the dreaded UK high scenario, Easterlies and there are also a number of Deep South westerlies with high pressure to our SE. High stakes game this, because I wouldn't be suprised if we get stuck with the final pattern or some time. So, gloves or deck chairs? Lets see what tomorrow brings. Jason

Ignore it, GFS goes low res after 192! Jason

An early freeze up could easily emerge from the charts in the 144 time frame given where we are. GFS may be quick, but I wouldn't dismiss it. Jason

Just looked through the output and posts and am struck by two things 1 - the outlook has improved significantly in the last 24 hours 2 - some posters in here are living in a parallel universe! The Synoptics and charts being shown are fantastic. 24 hours ago I did think that the easterly option was slowly being taken off the table to be replaced by northerly outbreaks. To see a Scandinavian / Siberian high being modelled like this in early December is amazing and I can't recall anything similar at this stage of the season. If it comes off there will be cold uppers, low dew points, hardly any solar input given we are approaching the shortest day. It will just get colder and colder. The good stuff is now just starting to move forward in the output, so all positive IMO. GP isn't one to ramp, so people might want to reflect on that. Nothing's guaranteed, but crikey were in with a good shout! Jason

It's not without some credibility IMO. Not sure about a full fledged Bartlett, but a slow sinker uk high can easily swallow up a few weeks and leave a zonal pattern in its wake in our part of the world. The GFS ensembles show some support for this, although ECM snapshots posted by others show an E or NE flow. My head says ECM but my gut screams UK High from mid Dec onwards. As Steve Murr has said 48 hours should see the fog clear somewhat.

The postage stamps are very good from ECM based on the above. Lots of NE options. That said, don't discount the dreaded uk high scenario. Nothing good ever comes from these and a few have shown in the longer term output in recent days. ECM tonight though is very positive. Jason

Rain mostly. The blues and purples don't reflect the temperature on this chart. I'd imagine 850s would be circa -2 to -4 but with a maritime influence it's wet rather than white unless you live on high ground. Jason

JMA hasn't been too shabby based on those stats. Maybe not the cannon fodder that some think! Jason

Run hits low res and its a 'titanic special' with the high sinking immediately. Ironically, a bit like a few weeks ago its the depth of the cold pool to our east that causes a problem as it is so extreme it causes a disturbance in the flow and allows a cut off high to form over the UK. This time though, the cold is being overdone as there is no way IMO that we will see an expanding area of -20c uppers forming over eastern europe in situ. To be clear i'm not saying -20c uppers are impossible, merely that a growing pool of -20s won't occur. A cold pool is perfectly possible but i simply don't buy the way it just deepens and expands as solar input is really kicking in now. In early Feb, yes but not in early March. Hopefully, if the cold pool is overdone a little we won't end up with the cut off high.

Crikey, the pub run is a 'warm un' :o. Classic Bartlett set up really. A fitting epitaph to a miserable winter. Still no rain for much of the country and with the warmer temps the situation will steadily worsen now as even more moisture is sucked out of the ground by plants. It will be very interesting to see where the CET ends up for this month as i'm guessing it could end up a mild or even very mild month despite the first week.

Yes, i've never seen anything like this. In Jan 2011 pressure rose suddenly over Iberia and that killed off last winter and kept us dry, and ever since we have had relentless high pressure to our south. The pattern will break eventually, but after nearly 14 months no reason to think it will be anytime soon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=174&mode=0 Flat as a pancake which has been further flattened by a large steamroller!! Still no rain of note for the SE and now that the temperature is going to move from 'mild' to 'tropical' this will simply worsen the problem. At this rate my 5.9C CET guess won't be far off despite a sub zero first week. Absolutely no prospect of any meaningful rain in the SE anywhere in model land. Jason

I agree, as trends go its not neccersarily bad over the medium term.....

GFS 18Z out to 30 hours and snow risk has already moved west by a good 50 - 100 miles from 12 Z run. Looks like were sitting this one out guys (at least London Eastwards) Jason

At the range of 50 - 60 hours and with support from the earlier METO run this will have more than a few raised eyebrows in met office towers!

You might want to look at the near term GFS 18Z run...... Lol, tumbleweed atmo in the model thread! GFS plus Meto might be about to liven things up a little. Classic cold undercut from the SE, very retro 1980's!

Still snowing hard in Basildon. If this carries on through the night (and it should), i'd expect some impresive depths by sunrise

Steve Check this out from the latest GFS run. This is at 18 hours!!!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=18&mode=2 Jason Edit 528 thickness doesnt leave the SE out to 100 plus hours and still going!!

Who would ever look at this chart (from 18z GFS) and expect dry powder snow to be falling accross the SE. Amazing set up really!!!! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0 Jason

Classic :rofl: