Jason M

:lol: Well, some cheeky upgrades tonight. Para ensembles are interesting tonight. Lots of evolving easterlies, and some of the opps are non too shabby either! I'll wait until the morning i think before getting too interested as what the 12z giveth, the 00z runs often taketh away :lol: The thing in our favour this time though is that were looking at charts 5/6/7 days away and not 10 / 15 days away. Jason

Never said it was great . Its difficult to be certain from that point what comes next. The ridge could flatten out or the next low could dive SE with a pressure rise behind to the NE. My money would be on the worst case again, but its not certain and that in my book is an improvement of sorts!

The Meto chart at 144 actually doesn't look too bad to me. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2012011512/UN144-21.GIF?15-17 One of the better charts i've seen for a couple of days (from an admittedly dire benchmark). I'm a bit surprised more comment hasnt been made about this. Hard to tell where we go from there, but it does have possibilities and that is a big improvement! Jason

Looking through the output this morning it seems to me that were really no further forward than at this time last week. ECM has steadily downgraded next weekends cold spell, to a cold snap and is now moving towards a situation where were looking at a couple of rather cold days and nothing more. The one feature that dominates all the output is the Azures high, which despite changes at a Global level isn't showing any signs of going anywhere. Same rule applies now as at any other time during this Autumn and Winter (and last Jan - Feb) which is high pressureto our south = no snow of note. Whilst we seecharts like the one below accross the models, nothing much is going to change. To avoid upsetting anyone i'll show a chart from GEM. This is one of the better ones this morning as well! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=132&mode=0&carte=0 24 hours later leads to this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0 With that Azures high in position there is only ever going to be one outcome ie a renewed push from the west. Even with things changing globally its perfectly possible that the Azures high will stay in situ regardless. Still time for me to be proved wrong of course and others no doubt have different views but i can see no evidence whatsoever of any material change to the status quo at this point. I've felt for some time that were headed for winter that will sit firmly in the 'very mild' category and based on our current starting position Feb could really be quite exceptional for all the wrong reasons. No doubt by this afternoon the next ice age will be showing at 120 hours Jason

I suspect ECM is close to where we will end up. Its important that people (more aimed at any newbies reading this!), are not expecting snowmaggedon next weekend, because I simply cant see it happening. ECM is showing a standard winter cold spell / snap and if it verifies I suspect many places will see some snow, I just can't see most places getting big snow. In the longer term there is (IMO) little support for anything more severe and based on current output the Azures high could easily boss the weather well into Feb. Lots of time for something better to show up in the charts but there is no point in pretending that a big freeze is due when its just not supported in the output. Jason

Yes, def some hints in amongst them. Once they go 'low res' though GFS blows up its usual super storms so its hard to get much of a steer beyond 200 hours.

Erm, before people start rushing to conclusions why dont we see what the ensembles throw out. My guess is neither model is correct. Its been a nut house in here tonight and I can't believe people are arguing over charts 10 days away. To me the ECM solution is plausable but the best stuff is still well over the hill as far as i'm concerned. Its interesting, but too far out to be overly excited about. GFS as we all know tends to overplay zonality and pumps up lows big time, so we cant trust that either completely, given were looking out to days 7-10!. Personally, as i've said for several weeks its all a bit 88/89 to me. Unless we get rid of this bleedin Azures high we have no chance! The PV is the cause (probably) and the Azures high is the effect. I think as we go into Feb the cause will be dealt with but it doesnt always follow in life that the effect disappears. Jason

Frame for frame a very similar run in many ways to the 12z. Strong consistency from GFS IMO, although this doesnt mean its right of course. Logic points to the ECM being closer to correct, but I think the tendancy to simply bin GFS is risky as whilst it may have struggled recently its still one of the big three! My main concern is that this run is so similar to the last one! Has GFS nailed it? Some positive signs in the early / mid part of the run with pressure higher over Greenland. Jason

quick post to summarise GFS = Zonal (control is better) ECM = Looks like yesterdays 12Z run on quick inspection (which is ok!) GFS Ensembles = Still updating but the 'day after tommorow' runs look to have largely vanished. Some support for ECM outlook though within them METO = As always the pot of gold is at day 10, so METO not that relevant IMO as not enough data (know some will disagree) Cannon Fodder models = generally not great and tending to back GFS I may have missed something as not much time Worth mentioning that the AZores high is in control one way or another on nearly every model (not good!). Just because the PV moves and things change globally it doesnt mean the Azores high will clear off. IMO, unless it does were out of luck (except maybe a brief toppler). Jason

Things looking better today. This is far from a done deal though and I wouldn't be warning friends and family yet! I've just looked through the parallel ensembles and whilst there are a few good uns, there are a lot that are far from great. Noticed a few people talking about 'battleground scenarios' this morning. Whilst logic dictates its better to be in the East it rarely works that way in practice. Where a situation occurs with cold air winning out its usually further west that cops the snow with the east / south east staying dry under a cloud shield. Nice to see the better ensembles though rather than endless variations of zonality (which still isnt off the table looking at the output). Lots of interest tonight Jason

Yes, I know, hence me saying it will be gone by the morning. Sorry should have used a smiley .

Yes, fair point. I actually don't have much faith in the mid long term output at present. Its all over the place. On that basis i'm not overly fussed tonight and we move onto tommorow. Were now looking out towards 25th onwards though, so the clock is ticking. Feb can deliver, but towards the end of feb the sun comes into play and it gets much harder to get ice days. Still time though.

At six hours we have this....... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0 At 384 hours we have this....... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0 Fair to say, another poor run. That said it is only one run and fortunately this will be gone by the morning I have a feeling that there will be some twists and turns yet! Jason

Must admit that I just don't buy the 'raging Atlantic' scenario presented by the opps over the last few days. The ensembles are showing more and more northern blocking after each GFS run. The 18Z run last night was a once in 20 year event and was way too extreme, but i'd not be surprised to see another easterly being shown by GFS this evening. Maybe a sudden switch over tommorow. Something is def afoot looking at the weird and wonderful FI charts from the ensembles.

Ensembles are 'more easterly' tonight but some weird charts with quite a few 'mildish' easterlies. There are a couple like the one below, high pressure over Scandi, high pressure over Iceland, high pressure over Greenland but for the Uk allow me to introduce the Bartlett 'Low' http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=20&mode=0&carte=

Quick post. As expected the dream is over.... or is it? GFS Opp, ECM & METO are all rubbish, but the GFS control, lots of the ensemble suite still say yes. The GFS Parellel ensembles are good but not quite as good as the main GFS. One further concern is that the better charts are not coming forward through the timeframes. Mixed picture this morning, but less bleak than yesterday morning

Just looked through the ensembes out to about 220 plus hours. Four or five support this evolution. Some crazy charts thrown in (which suggests some odd stuff going on in the atmosphere) and a several great big filthy Bartletts for good measure.

Completely agree. Once uppers get below -10C there is only ever one outcome with an easterly. Probably gone before morning but great way to end the day. Only trouble is that things can only downgrade from here. The pub run is showing a once in twenty year event and i'm sure theres a message in that somewhere. Would be fun though, wouldnt it!

This looks better than the 12Z to me. A longer wait, but end result is better. Compared to this morning when I looked a massive change. I'm not climbing aboard the polar express yet as GFS out on a bit of a limb, but its certainly interesting and if that set up occurs that Scandi High won't be going anywhere fast!!! That Scandi cell is a textbook blocking high! Jason NB: OON - Classic deletions lol, keep up the good work!!!!

Looking through this morning, it seems were back to square one. ECM is the best of a pretty bad bunch this morning. The charts are largely dominated by a strong northern jet and are best described as zonal. Looking through the ensembles (which are still updating post 300 hours) and the odd toppler apart they also look more zonal than yesterday. No signs of a Scandi High influence today and it looks now like that option has been removed from the table. Computer says 'no' Still time to change but were now looking to the last week of Jan. The fat lady isnt singing yet, but the orchestra is tuning up IMO. Jason

At 126 high pressure finally declines to our south.... King Bartlett is dead http://www.meteociel...&ech=126&mode=0 At 186 all heil King Bartlett the second http://www.meteociel...&ech=186&mode=0 Overall, dire 18Z run, zonal all the way with PV over Greenland, massive Azures high to the SW. Only one run of course, but the trend today is not our friend. Lets see what tommorow brings. Even with the better charts this weekend the Azures high has never been far away. Using the chicken and egg analagy, even if we get rid of the egg (PV) we might still be left with the chicken (Azures high), which will likely lay another egg (PV) which................ . Its all a bit 1988/89! Jason

Yep, a bit over dramatic to be fair. What I mean't was that the positive trend from yesterday hasn't been maintained. Plenty of northerlies and easterlies in amongst the ensembes though so all options are on the table. The only trend really is uncertainty, which is obvoiusly better than where we were on Friday evening.

Sorry OP, but your wrong about this. If a block sets up, within 2-3 days it would be plenty cold enough. Upper air temperatures can change quickly and its important to remember that even under high 850s its never going to be toasty at ground level on the continent in late January. Massive step back today, but were in a happier place than Friday. I've looked through the ensembles and we have just about every outcome known to man, so nothings set yet

Its all nonsense after 200 hours anyway, but if we ended up with a pattern as shown at the end of FI, I for one would be saying 'deal' every time I'd actually be more worried if GFS was showing the perfect synoptics for a cold spell in FI because the odds of the model nailing something like that this far out are tiny. Even if we revert to the 1988/89 retro charts of the last couple of weeks tommorow, its just nice to have some interest. Overall, i'm pleased with the pub run and the fact that were seeing variations on a theme accross a number of different models. Very interesting that GEM picked it up first though (and not for the first time either). Jason

Completely agree. Tbh is just nice to have something interesting to look at probably for the first time in months Jason