Jason M

Hi Nick De Bilt ensembles may be a bit misleading for us in this set up as if the high sits over the top of the UK De Bilt will be a fair bit colder than London say as the colder air sinks into Europe but fails to back west. I'm praying it won't happen, but experience is screaming 'UK High' followed after a couple of weeks by another spell of zonality as the high sinks again. There now seems increasing agreement between the models and GFS enemble suite on the first stage of this set up. Renewed zonality is usually the outcome from that although it could take a couple of weeks. This isnt a reaction to one set of runs, its been a trend for a couple of days that is gathering speed. To me, this is the nightmare scenario as it effectively writes of January if it comes to pass (ie 10 days for the high to settle over us, 10 days for it to clear off followed by minimum 10 days zonal period). Jason

It all looks a bit similar to this time last year. I'm still going for a near miss (possibly multiple near misses) with the high sat smack over the top of us. The one constant on just about every chart we see is that dirty great high to our SW. The 'beast from the east' may come knocking but my money is on the displaced Azores high to once again prove its by far the biggest beast in our part of the jungle. We need low pressure to our South as there is no trigger to back the cold air west. High pressure to our South = no snow!! Despite my own views though, its nice to see some interest again and i suspect that the next few days might throw out some really good runs before things settle down again. Jason

I don't think anyone said the 06Z was the harbinger of Winter. For what its worth I think we will end up with the high sat smack over the top of us with Feb heralding an early spring, but... the last few runs have at least shown that were still in the game even if were 3-0 down with 20 minutes to play That there is some difference now in the later ensembles illustrates that come mid month a change is possible, albeit odds against IMO. Jason

Looking through the ensembles there are a number which are nearly epic. Unfortunately Uncle Bartlett sends most (although not all) of the easterlies packing! There is an increasing signal for an easterly after mid month though, which i think was in line with GPs thoughts. Jason

Hi I think something like this is very likely. The trouble is that its actually not a good chart in many ways. The jet is riding over the top and the high can only sink, resulting in zonality setting in again. Indeed if you run the next few charts on meteocel it shows this happening. The SE corner may see a few flurries but it would be a blink and miss it type affair. For anything notable we need the high to be sitting a fair way out into the Atlantic, or better still clearing off altogether to allow some colder blocks to form at higher latitude. Jason

Best make that 14 days, rather than a week As there will be people here who are wondering what a Bartlett is, its worth mentioning that technically no such thing exists in meteorology. It is really just a phrase used in some internet forums to describe a persistent belt of high pressure to our SE which just keeps the mild air coming for weeks on end (look at historical charts for 1988). In that sense I think its entirely reasonable to describe the current set up as a 'Bartlett' as whilst the high is a displaced Azores high sitting just our SW the end result is pretty much the same (albeit not quite as mild). Bartlett was the surname of the forcaster (Paul Bartlett) who made the perfectly valid point that the pattern can persist for a very long time. I do wonder what Mr Bartlett thinks about having something like this named in his honour? As for the pub run, it could run out to April and it would show the same. Of course, by May we will have our northern blocking in time for the summer Lets see what the ensembles bring, but so far rock solid agreement on the status quo at 168 hours. Jason

Hi All A glimmer of hope :o !! Just looked through the ensembles and some def signs of hope in amongst them. Massive caveats of course in that we are talking about ensemble members at 300 hours away, but at least something to be interested in. There are still a few horrors in amongst them (including my own personal nightmare / theory which shows the high sitting over the top of us). The 850s are never massively cold despite some great synoptics as there is nothing cold to tap into, but a few of the runs would evolve colder down the line. Jason

The 18Z opp run is so awful its actually funny. Post 300 hours (which is obvoiusly complete la la land and therefore hopefully won't verify), the high moves East into the 1988 position over the near continent. Looking through the earlier ensembles there were again some interesting synoptics, however the problem then arises that the 850s are generally too high as there is no cold pool. My view is that the existing pattern will not break as such, it will simply shift North with the jet. I suspect by mid month we will have the high sitting directly overhead with the jet running over the top. The interesting point that arises from this is that lack of rainfall will be a serious problem for parts of the SE and East Anglia given the scarcity of any rain over recent months. This could become a really big story over the next couple of months imo. Jason

Its all looking a bit '1988' in my view. Ian is correct to say its about as zonal as it can get. We can quibble over whether its a Bartlett set up or not, but in practice it makes no difference either way. In 88 the high was over the near continent so its in a slightly different position, but the outcome is the same. I looked through the ensembles last night and a fair view were plotting paths out of the current pattern, but that idea has been dumped completely this morning. It is worth noting however that the models often seem to play around with ideas at long range, drop them before picking up on a change again within the 240 timerange. So we might get some better charts this afternoon. Still plenty of time as its only December, but that high to our south isnt going anywhere fast and until it does clear off the chances of snow in southern england is virtually zero. Just noticed that we have a member called 'President Bartlett' . Show yourself evil doer . Jason

I have a feeling that the opp runs in lower resolution to the ensemble suite in the low res timeframe. I'm sure this has been raised on TWO a number of times. Assuming that is / remains correct you can pretty much discount the opp run in la la land if the opp and ensembles pretty much agree at the end of the high res part of the run. I suspect it also explains why the opp run nearly always defaults to zonal and is usually amongst the mildest of the runs at the end. Jason

Hi Time will tell 88/89 was extreme, and this winter may or may not surpass that! but its far more common for the UK to have largely snowless Winters than it is for us to get a 62 type winter. Whilst I understand your analogy with last December i dont think its valid in this case. Had we just had a 'mild' December i would agree that it cant be seen as a guide to what will happen (and frankly a mild Dec is the norm anyway). The reason I think this is different is the pattern were in. People on these forums react in horror to the 'B' word being used and rightly so in my view as a Bartlett set up is an absolute nightmare for those of us who want cold weather, simply because in the words of the old Ariston adverts it goes on and on and on and.................. . Jason

Hi For what its worth my money is on the Azores high ridging north but settling over us (after possibly a brief 'toppler') with the jet riding over the top. From that point its 2 weeks until it sinks south again and the status quo returns. Is that what your driving at Ian? Its not unusual for us to get periods of zonality, but this situation is a bit more extreme as its a full on entrenched Bartlett set up along 88/89 lines. The outcome may be different, but from where we are currently it would be a brave person who bets against a winter in the 'very mild' category. At this point i'm hoping GP or someone similarly learned is going to correct me. I draw my conclusion from years of interest rather than expert knowledge, it just seems to me the logical way forward. This does mean of course that the near continent would see some very cold weather next month, but this can lead to the holland ECM ensemble suite giving a very misleading picture as far as were concerned. My son got a sled for Xmas today, so i'm really hoping i'm wrong on this! I also stress that this post isn't a dig at anyone as i do recognise others here see opportunities arising from the strat warming forecast or more generally from looking at the top down NH view and i respect these views (and hope they are right!). Jason

I do look in the Strat thread from time to time however my understanding differs somewhat from yours in that I wasnt under the impression that the above posters had forecast a freeze. There isnt even any guarantee that any strat warming will penetrate low enough into the atmosphere to make any difference (although it might do of course). I wasnt looking to promote 'gloom and doom' but merely make the point that the charts at present are actually pretty extreme (albeit not in the way we like). The 'B' word gets used a lot but in my mind what were seeing in the charts is a classic textbook Bartlett set up and in reality this set up isnt actually very common at all. Sure we get high pressure to our south and it can hang around but this type of set up is a brute to break out of as it just perpetuates itself. The pattern may break (and I hope it does), but this set up can be a 'winter killer' and as the charts clearly show it doesnt look like breaking soon. Anyway happy Xmas to everyone here and hopefully a 'snowy' new year Edit - Deep FI on GFS looks a little better tonight, though using the 06Z run as a benchmark that wouldnt be difficult!

Hi All In its own way the 06 run is as extreme as the charts for last December. For most of us who like cold weather it is the worst set up i've seen for many years. The PV is going nowhere and consequently there is an endless stream of high pressure cells to reinforce the resident Bartlett to the south. To be fair to IB this was always his prediction. If this pattern holds into the new year (and it almost certainly will imo) its just going to get ever milder and some of the records that went in 88/89 could start to come under threat. Its only December but this Winter has all the ingrediants to be a record breaker in my view. Jason

Hi All No respite on the pub run. Pressure stays high to the south all the way through. This pattern looks a bit like what we had in Jan / Feb where high pressure over Spain / Biscay killed those months as far as any prospect of colder weather was concerned. Its interesting to run quickly through the charts on meteocel as it just shows the high pressure ebbing and flowing but never moving. Opinions differ on what constitutes a 'bartlett' but the 18Z in my opinion is a textbook example. Shades of the record winter of 88 IMHO (think that was the one:-) ). Lots of time for things to change of course and the new year often brings a new pattern, but i've got a horrible feeling that were looking at many weeks of this to come. In my years of following these threads i've never seen such a sustained period of time where the charts have shown nothing significantly cold (even at 300 plus hours out). I guess this just reflects the fact that the computer modelling is demonstrating the robustness of the pattern. From memory, i think FI GFS runs at a lower resolution to its ensembles, hence it always just defaults straight to zonal and is often the mildest run in the suite. IMO any change will be flagged in the ensembles before the opp, so thats where i'll be looking over the coming weeks for any signs. Jason

I take your point, but don't really agree. At this time of year the relative warmth of the sea interacts with the colder air and you get convection as a result (ie coastal showers), in the summer months showers form more readily over land as the land heats quicker than the surrounding seas. The sun will have little impact on showers over the north sea at the moment as whilst its strong enough (just about) to heat the land for a few hours each day, it will have virtually no impact on sea temperatures. The main shower driver will still be the sea though as we are only in early Feb. I agree with your comment about showers before mid week though! To get beefy showers cold uppers help greatly. Jason

The extra solar input won't make the showers off the sea any heavier but it will allow us to 'grow our own' over land during the day to a limited extent. Best example is during the summer months where the showers fall inland whilst coastal areas can stay sunny all day. Being early Feb the sun won't have a lot of strengh, but i suspect it will be just enough to cause some activity inland (as long as there isn't a sheet a grey low cloud).

Hi TEITS Another point that some are forgetting is that the slightly increased solar input will probably result in showers forming inland. later in the week I wouldn't be suprised to see some Thunder Snow in some places in central southern england. Jason

Hi All GFS doesn't look right to me. The Atlantic low (as another poster mentioned) just looks too deep. Also notice how the low which just parks itself off the coast of Scotland maintains its central pressure for days. Some big changes to come I feel! Better be, or there will be a lot of flooding early next week Jason

Looks virtually identical to 12Z at around 160 hours. Lets see how it pans out, but I'd certainly bank the 120 hour chart and in a situation this complex, anything after that has limited value IMO. Jason

The crucial part here may well be the fact that GFS is at +90 hours rather than +96. Were getting close enough to the key point now that the 6 hours additional data has significant relevance. METO and ECM for me have lacked consistency over recent days where as GFS (whilst it may still be wrong) seems to keep charting a very similar course over the short / medium term. Another point is that METO does not give us enough info. The model may be one of the 'big three' but based on what we see its not really much more use than JMA / NOGAPS. My money is on GFS although if I'm wrong life goes on! Regards Jason

Hi All 18Z The lake effect snow off the N Sea would be immense. Anywhere within 50 miles of the N Sea would be buried until at least May! Of course its only happened a few times in the last 100 years but..... I have a feeling that next week could become interesting as the UK sits in the battleground. Highly unlikely that an easterly that severe will occur but even a modified version would cause some fun and games. The overall pattern looks plausible in my view (indeed very plausible). There will be some worried councils if this still shows by Sunday!! Jason

Hi All Seems to me that some people are making the mistake of looking too far ahead. If we take a snapshot of all charts in the 120 - 144 hour time frame the charts have significant promise. After day 5/6 we might as well not bother because the difference between deep cold and surface cold is marginal in terms of synoptics and will be beyond the models to accurately model at this stage. Arguably were better off as we are because if they were all showing a deep freeze they would likely change anyway. Jason

Hi All Looking through the 18Z it wouln't take much change to leave us in an even colder spell than we currently have. Be interesting to see the ensembles tonight. Next week will be fun for the Met Office!!!! Jason

The 18Z looks interesting. I've been watching the models for years and cannot decide whether we will get a blizzard or rain fest next week with the undercutting low. Would be interested in Ian's views on this. Experience tends to make me lean towards a classic North of M4 event (with Essex getting rain as usual )