Jason M

The projected time for the East parts of essex / kent was 9.30 - 10.00pm so its still on track. Intensity picking up in Basildon now and the fact that its taken an hour between here and Leigh just shows its slowing as planned. Will soon be with you. Jason

Send in another one just to be on the safe side

The heavier stuff will come. A gradual increase in intensity is normal for what is at the end of the day a warm front. In terms of timings the front is behaving as predicted. Time given for Essex was 8.30 to 9.30 pm with heavy snow by midnight. Jason

Must have a more expensive snowshield. Basildon spent its money on the Bas Vegas sign on the A127. Now visible in street lights. Jason

Nope, just missed out Thurrock and Hornchurch reported in first. Had to turn on the 500 watt garden light, so its a 1 on the Murr scale.

ALERT!!!!!!!!! I can confirm that the Basildon snow shield has failed :excl: First few tiny flakes spotted falling a couple of mins ago!! Jason

Yep, mix of rain, hail, sleet (Basildon). Just happened to be outside . Can understand why someone else reported rain though. Its not so much whats falling though as the fact that convection is already kicking off. Get sub -10 uppers in a couple of days and no one is going to convince me that it won't be carnage east of London (even in a fairly slack flow)

I'll punt at 5.9 First half just above normal, but notable warmth in the last week of the month heralding an early spring. Winter overall in the V Mild category (not as warm as 88/89), perhaps coming in at 3rd or 4th mildest. Talk about sticking my neck out... Edit: Hope I'm very wrong of course!!!!!!!

This chart from the end of GFS sums up my expectations of the pattern for Feb. http://www.meteociel...&ech=372&mode=0 I know its late FI so in itself proves nothing as TBH the changes of winning the lottery are similar to the odds of a 372 chart veryfying. That said, its a good example of how getting stuck in no mans land between a massive Scandi / Russian high and Atlantic lows can lead to a long period of southerlies. Again, absolutely no indication of anything wintry this morning. The wait goes on........ Jason The ensembles (GFS) are not too bad late in FI, but its all out at T30000 hours

Hi Whitefox. I'll ignore the first couple of sentences of your response I tend to actually agree with you re the Russian high. I'm not convinced its our friend at the moment for the reason I explained earlier this evening. We could easily end up stuck with southerlies. If we could get a seperate disctinct pressure rise over Scandi however things would look better. I tend to not pay too much heed to post 192 on GFS when low res kicks in, as outside of very zonal situations it is pretty useless and I tend to give it the same weighting that I would an individual ensemble member.

18Z looking better at this point. Atlantic low is much further west. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=126&mode=0 Less phasing of the lows

Quite a few seemed to be more of the 'mid lat' variety though. When looking at the 850s they were often quite poor despite the fact that they looked synaptically very good. By the time the correct synaptics appear the cold pool has been displaced. In a sense there is a danger that we miss our window and end up with something akin to the dreaded 'faux cold' (really hate that phrase but needs must ). Its a fair point re the 18Z though. Will be interesting. Edit: where is IB? its his job to be negative, not mine

Whilst my feeling (more from years of watching the weather than anything massively technical) is that were headed for a nearly but no cigar situation, I've got to say that I hope GP is right. He's stuck to his winter view and has backed it up all the way down the line with facts and figures. If ever a winter forecast deserves to be right its his. No hopecasting involved, just the facts as he see's them.

Lets hope they are this time then , but it isnt reflected in the model output and whilst I don't doubt they have more info than us, were not exactly short of info in the public domain. Any way, enough on this from me as whilst i think its on topic i dont want to push my luck

Hmm, not good charts tonight IMO. The trend is not overly good either. Usual caveats apply ie could change blah blah blah (been saying this since late Nov). As I see it there are two options on the table realistically 1. Zonal with dominant Azores high 2. West based -NAO (or something similar) A few days ago my money was on zonal but i'm coming round now to option 2 having seen the ensembles hint at this increasingly over recent days. This would leave us under southerlies and cruising rapidly towards a potential record breaking mild Feb. As an example see exhibit 'A' below http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=5&ech=348&mode=0&carte=&runpara=1 This has everything a coldy could wish for 1. Greenland high? yep, 2. Massive Scandi High? yep 3. Azores high sent packing? yep outcome = mildsville At face value that chart would scream potential, but in reality is a stalemate. I remain astonished at the METO outlook as for the life of me I simply can't see the justification. Had they said 'small' or 'remote' chance of a very cold spell i'd get it, but really this is very odd. I raise it here in the model thread because its directly related to what's being shown (or rather not shown) in the models. What next? an amber weather warning for 'rain'. I'll get my coat........ Probably be digging my car out of a ten foot snow drift by early feb (when all else fails revert to reverse physcology) Jason

Spot on IMO. It is near impossible for us to get a major cold spell unless that high clears off. Despite all the background signals it shows no sign of doing so, and like many on this forum i've seen plenty of occasions like this in the past. Personally, I think its just one of those winters where were stuck with a Bartlett type set up and nothing is going to shift it.

Ignore the low res! Notice how after 192 we suddenly get lots of dartboard lows and pressure drops like a stone over Greenland. Ok(ish) run, but the wait goes on despite the bizarre meto update today. Jason By the end our old friend is back. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=0 A Bartlett is for life not just Christmas . Joking aside though, the latter stages can go in the bin IMO.

Big differences even at 72 hours in the way the low pressure is behaving near Iceland. Looks a little better to me (lol, maybe not). Jason

Different day same ........... Azures high to the SW, fairly non descript outlook as said elsewhere this morning. Still some very good ensembles, although looking through the parallel ensembles they didnt look as good to me (albeit i had a quick scan through). In reality the ensembles are probably little use in this scenario as the opps with the higher resolution must be picking up a signal that cant be seen by many of the ensembles. A week ago, we could say with high confidence that there would be nothing overly cold in 10 days, with a bit more uncertainty around that's maybe narrowed down to perhaps 7 days, so we are looking out to the 24/25th Jan as an earliest (albeit unlikely IMO) date. Not sure what the CET is running at this month, but if Feb carries on like this we could challenge some of our milder winters i'd have thought. 88/89 would take some beating though. Jason

Opp run looks a big mild outlier in fairness. Some decent easterlies in amongst the ensembles but the opp is not without some support. Given the short timescale now until the weekend the higher res opp should be favoured (based on logic), but then again the models will make an ass of us all!

Yes, it is better than the GFS run thats for sure. Its only my opinion of course anyway and I could easily be wrong but I've seen this sort of set up before and whilst I recognise that there are others who can give highly technical reasons why the Azures high will get lost (see GPs latest excellent post in the techy thread)it doesnt mean it will! The global pattern could undergo massive changes but it doesn't always follow that in our tiny backyard that things will change. GFS has seemed poor of late although i'm wondering if its now close to nailing the next ten days. The ECM run was just plain odd in places but its been trending zonal since yesterday evening. We will know in the morning for sure i suspect but IMO any chance of an easterly early next week is gone. With an Azures high so close to us it simply cannot happen. If come the morning i'm wrong, I'll be the happiest person on the forum, but we are where we are.

Well whatever happens down the line on this run, coupled with the earlier ECM we can put the weekend cold snap to bed now I think. The Azures high isnt going anywhere in the forseeable and same rule applies as per the last couple of months ie Azures high nearby = no snow. Higher pressure over Greenland is more prominent but outcome is the same. The problem in my view is that whilst we can change the global picture it doesnt mean that the Azures high will be dislodged and without this happening it is a near impossibility for us to get anything particularly cold. Its such a set pattern that I can see it lasting through Feb as well. Of concern, might be the continued lack of rainfall in the SE. Jason

Ensembles on their way out but they look very good indeed to my eyes up to 144. The 132 control has a lot of support. The opp is the mother of all outliers!!!! and wrong IMO.

Lots of positives here I think. Things don't work out in the medium term, but some signs here of the Azures high getting kicked west as per GPs post. I'd wager this will end well in FI. The charts up to 120 hours are important IMO, those thereafter less so tonight. It may go pear shaped tommorow, but were in a better place tonight than we were this morning. Jason Edit, LOL flat as a pancake in low res.

Something like this? but with a 50% chance of lots of this......