Icebox
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Posts posted by Icebox
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did anyone think the met office are warning of something
but do not want to commit until the last minute
Reading between the lines yes........ although some of the output tonight goes against that, mind you they havn't put out another update so they must be happy with what they have gone with.
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http://www.metoffice...ings.html?day=2
Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 11:46
Valid from - 14 Jan 2013, 00:05
Valid to - 14 Jan 2013, 23:59
An area of sleet and snow will come eastwards across England during the early morning, probably becoming light and patchy later in the morning as it slows down over eastern areas. However, later in the day it is expected to intensify again, at the same time turning back to rain in places. Through the day there is the risk of 5 cm accumulations in places, and more than that above 200 m. However, there is greater than average uncertainty at this range, especially in the extent to which snow affects southern counties, and it is quite possible that the Alert will be upgraded to an amber Warning if confidence increases.
The public are advised to monitor the forecast and to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel.
Issued at - 12 Jan 2013, 12:28
Valid from - 15 Jan 2013, 00:05
Valid to - 15 Jan 2013, 23:55
Showery outbreaks of snow will affect parts of the east on Tuesday, in some places adding a few cm to existing accumulations. Over Scotland and northern England showers will often fall as rain near coasts. Over East Anglia and southeast England, conditions will improve markedly by afternoon. Ice will also be a hazard in these areas.
The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to transport.
There is no way this is a done deal yet JP I think we'll have a few more twists and turns yet...... hopefully positive ones!
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Right Ladies & Gentleman a little shopping list for you over the next 48 hours my seven steps to snow -
1 ~ Red Bulls or coffee.
2 ~ cigarettes if you smoke.
3 ~ Snow boots.
4 ~ Camera to take photos.
5 ~ Ruler for measurement.
6 ~ Holy bible for the mild sector.
7 ~ Prozac if things go wrong.
Or a very laid back approach......
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sorry ice
i will always take the output of ukmo over gfs and ecm anytime
UKMO has been consistent of late JP but we have seen some dramatic climbdowns before..... mind you they all do that!
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hi ice
see ian fergusions post on sw thread
the chart for thursday 00
now remember the fax chart for wednesday
trying not to ramp but that is streamer territory
as for monday i do feel we will see a correction west tomorrow
i am glad i have not got to provide a forecast paid wise as you could get it
horribly wrong here
Agreed Meto have a thankless task at the moment, I'm liking those wet bulb charts Ian F posted very nice of Exeter to allow them out into the public domain....... I don't suppose there is any chance he could post a link to MOGREPS too!
I still cannot get excited about the Monday/Tuesday event though, mother nature seems determined to put every barrier possible in the way.
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again a look at nae tonights update
i see that warm front way to our west
gfs 18z tonight well out of sync with the other models
do not rule some snow flurries for us tomorrow
From one John to another, What are your thoughts regarding the models handling of the current set-up? It seems to me they are all toying with differing evolutions, hence when we think we are going to have model agreement one of them jumps ship and runs with a scenario already run previously by another model
(primarily GFS & ECM ). I honestly believe FI starts around 36-48 hrs I took a step back from the models today just popped in the model discussion now and then, having looked at them tonight I'm really not to sure what to think. UKMO looks pretty tasty but I'm still going with the ECM, so I'm praying for an upgrade tomorrow!
With regard to the snow potential (which it still is imho ) early next week I think we need a small correction west so we have a bit more margin for error, But I feel Wednesday/Thursday is a better bet the fax looks good with unstable air and a nice E/NE--N/E we must be in with a chance of a streamer or two surely?
John.
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Actually think I might come over here as well, way too many trolls in the other old Thread and Essex is East Anglia after all!
Very sad that you feel that way Paul as many of us value your input...... unfortunately we seem to have been invaded by a few total %(?&$ of late and it has changed the happy positive vibe that we had in the thread, well most of the time anyway before it was split.
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question peeps,are we expecting the event monday night to be all snow in the south east or is there a possabillity of rain because of the occluded front joining from the west??
As things stand I would expect an all snow event.......
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very cold
bucket load of precipitation there
now the 19th looks cold -5 mean
after the 19th gfs main run goes into a warm outlier
the 19th is now fi
cold spell getting longer
Pretty impressive John......... I still feel the models are struggling to deal with the current set-up, and we may find any potential breakdown being pushed back. Hopefully!
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I do not hang on each run! I keep an open mind and look for trends.
If I want to express my downgrade feelings I will.
Just because I'm not jumping up and down ramping about a possible 2cm of snow does not mean I'm hanging on each run and taking it gospel.
I am the first to comment about how 'all over the place' the models are, just look at my previous posts!
But I'm not naive enough to realise if we collate the past two days models we have an overall downgrade of cold and snow, let's hope it all upgrades again. Fingers crossed!
I want snow as much as anyone so I'm just treading carefully for now as Dec 2012 I got burnt big time. Although this time it looks a lot better.
Apologies if I was a little harsh earlier Dexter I had just spent a while in the model thread wading through stupid amounts of 1 and 2 line moaning posts, then when I saw your cautionary post I treated it the same way which I shouldn't of.
Right.......... back to the models and its good to see a better 12z at least in the short term, I don't believe there's a lot of point looking past 96hrs at the moment.
UKMO still holding firm, very with the output this afternoon.
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Dexter stop hanging on every run like its nailed...... they are not! There is so much flux and volatility in the model suite right now, the Meto's latest stock phrase is Shannon entropy at record levels according to Ian F.
So mass confusion and odd evolutions are to be expected, as are downgrades and upgrades.
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I'm liking GP's thoughts from an IMBY perspective, we normally do well with heights to the N/E. Usual caveats apply.
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I have spent the last 15 minutes in the mod thread, gnashed teeth,thrown toys,spat dummies etc. Total carnage in the madhouse today and the models with the exception of the GEM are not that bad. The ECM has found a new evolution but is still good for short term cold, there is a lot more flux this morning and we still dont have model agreement even in the shorter term which I find incredible. Anyway I'm rambling now so I'll get to the point....... colder from tonight snow potential increasing Monday/Tuesday. But with model volatility post 120hrs and FI around 72 hrs we should just concentrate on this weekend.
J
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Oops. TBH, as far as I remember, none of the significant snowfalls in my neck of the woods in inner-west London have resulted from streamers at all.
Funilly enough CR London especially N/W London can benefit from the Cheshire gap streamer but only of course with a north westerly blowing.
look at the variable sea temperature there
snow making machine do your best
Screams CONVECTION!!
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hi icebox
the fax charts have precipitation showing so they are not dry
the chart i like is tuesday as that has dumping written all over it
people worrying about streamers-don't
there should be plenty of snow to go around
although if you get a streamer
get you skis ready
i have
Hi John, Yes I agree re Tuesday and as you correctly point out should a streamer set up which is very possible with sst's of I believe 7 degrees and minus 10 uppers, we could expect some serious convection I wouldn't rule a possibility of thundersnow.
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Ian F posted this 30 mins ago in the mad thread.
We have reason for concern Monday, then again Tuesday, and later in week too. UKMO closely on case for potential significant snow events in various parts of country based on combined GM, EC & MOGREPS output.
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Easiest way to remember the Streamers is the angle of attack
ENE = Thames Streamer - This usually sees showers packing the Northern Side of the Thames Estuary from Southend upto Clacton way, they steer WSW Running along the South Side of Essex and crossing over around East London hitting SE London and parts of West Sussex and Surrey.
NNE = Kent Slapper - This usually sees Showers moving down about 50-100 miles off the Coast of East Anglia affecting areas East of the Medway Towns, Herne Bay does well all the way out to Dover.
NE - Kent Clipper - This usually only affect the Eastern End 3rd of Kent, from Canterbury and Ashford Eastwards and the shower exit into the English Channel aroun Hastings area,
ESE - ??? Streamer - This is a rarer Streamer but it reverses from the Thames Streamer, Showers will be closer to the North Kent Coast and run WNW Along the Northern Parts of Kent and cross into North London and Herts, Bucks etc
As far as I know this Streamer has not got a name so if anyone wants to give it a name that sticks would be all ears!
What about........ Kent slider Paul? or London slipper.
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Having taken a sneak peek into other regionals we seem to be rather subdued in here tonight. Nobody excited?
After many close but no cigar moments in the past, including the "THAT ECM" last December....... no.
There is still some uncertainty but i'm sure when the models firm up the excitement on here take off!
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Is this situation a lot different from the failed easterly in December? I keep reading all the good ramping posts in the MOD thread, and in here but I can't get that nagging feeling out of my head that it could go pear shaped like last time..... Thanks LD
As always usual caveats apply it can very easily go wrong and I would prefer to have the GFS on side, but it is an option and a good one at that.
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They don't get much better than this!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0
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I have just donned my tin hat and ventured into the model thread, fully expecting to find low flying toys and spat out dummies. Actually I found quite a positive vibe bar a few doomers.
No change short term in fact maybe a slight upgrade for the 12z ECM and it is a beauty tonight for the midterm and before everybody jumps on me I know its all FI but still, great potential.
Fingers crossed it doesn't decide to jump ship to the GFS camp.
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By wobble I do not mean a huge backtrack....
I still believe GFS is barking up the wrong tree but we need to see it starting to back down, which it's not doing.
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ECM having a wobble now......... l am starting to have concerns that its on to something.
That said the GFS is going against background signals and most of the other models.
Confused.com!!!!
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Well people that Pub Run was probably one of the most laughable I have ever seen, Nick S Says it is almost a carbon copy of the 06z which was totally thrown in the bin by NOAA Regarding it's pattern across North America which will have a subsequent impact on us further down the line.
I know you should not discount a model but if it's Shortwaves cant even follow the Jet Profile in the first place then it cant be right!
Put it this way when we chase Tornadic Systems across the Plains, the Low will come through the Rockies in the 4 corners region, crossing into New Mexico and Colorado and then out into the Kansas Plains following a 80kt Jet Streak, it would NOT Go north or South and displace itself from the Jet on a holiday to Canada or Mexico!
The shortwave on the GFS Seems to have a love in with Svalbard!
GFS Seriously losing credibility with me!
I'm with you Paul it just doesn't seen plausable, the GFS is now trying to re-write the laws of weather physics........ if there is such a thing.
London & South East Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted
Well I will sit on the fence at the moment I would like to see the 00zs before trying to judge which way it will go. With so much flux in the model output at the moment you cannot give a definative answer......
Goodnight JP