Joe Bloggs

Convective easterly showers can make it over the Pennines, although they tend to fizzle as they get closer to the M6. I think Jan 96 was a trough in the flow which helped. Feb and March 2018 wasn’t a bad event either for anywhere east of a line from Bolton to say, Withington.

LOL. Tomorrow night I’m expecting some sleet when I’m out on the town , my favourite type of weather

I will always come to you for forecasts , unless you’ve had a few too many!

Exactly , it can happen!

We had loads this morning

I’d love to do a bit of research on easterly frontal events of the past in G Manchester and the effects of the shield. It’s a shame for us ALWAYS to miss out as if the conditions are right it should be one of our best snow makers. I know for a fact Manchester has had big easterly frontal snow events as @Weather-history has posted the articles. Some musings from me @Kasim Awan please correct me here if necessary. Any easterly vector, whether SE, E or NE across Pennines- slight foehn effect, will increase temp by a degree or so, makes a big difference in marginal conditions, would be mitigated by a colder airmass. A SE’ly - kinder scout plateau, longer pennine/peak track = more chance of virga/precipitation drying out plus foehn effect described above. Mitigated by lower heights and a lighter wind? Convective precipitation rather than frontal = much lower risk of shield effect due to more instability, e.g. Feb 2005, Feb/March 2018. In fact Pennines can enhance the showers. Feb 96 even though it was a polar continental airmass I don’t think the wind was actually a SE’ly in Manchester? Plus a very active front. One day we’ll see a repeat. Maybe. Just maybe. All interesting stuff and that complex you could probably write a dissertation on it. Historical G Manchester snow events and how the shield has played a part (or not).

Too stressful

Well done mate. Yesterday, whatever the outcome/frustrations, was a fascinating display of complex atmospheric physics in action. Meteorologically fascinating if frustrating. I’m hoping one of these days I do see a covering of snow in Manchester City centre, as it’s so so rare it will be all the more special.

Light snow falling in Manc now but looking at the radar it won’t last long/come to much. We have the lightest of dustings here.

So good to see many places waking up to snow. We have a light covering even here.

Amazing!

There is something especially grim about Cornbrook tram stop. It has to be one of the windiest places in the NW.

Can’t imagine how bleak it is up in the hills now if it’s like this in town. Horrendous.

Just walked through town, good grief. Freezing easterly wind, heavy snow. Still not settling but trying its best. Really, really grim. I have just walked from the gay village to Salford and can confirm it is snow, definitely not sleet. Heavy too. Just too wet to settle. Freezing wind too. Sadly there were no Ubers available.

Glossop is not good in a shadow situation, you’d be better off in Buxton.

Remember the failed Feb 2005 easterly frontal snow event? Basically it’s a slight foehn effect and this is similar. We had the precipitation in Manchester but too warm for snow, but that was worse than this, Feb 2005 was just rain once the convective showers had stopped. At least we have had falling snow this time.

yes BUT sometimes the shield means light or no precipitation (a la 2013) that has not been the case this time . It has peed it down all day. Anyway let’s stop talking about this banned topic now

Well done , always appreciate reading your posts/forecasts. I’ve learned some more things from this event - the snow shield is very difficult to forecast and the exact location can differ depending on the event, specific wind vector and speed etc. There has been very little easterly shield in Manchester City centre today and we have had more far more precipitation than we envisaged.. sadly it hasn’t settled.

Fair. The position of it really is fickle isn’t it.. must depend on very specific vector and strength.

There hasn’t been a shadow today!

If WRF is correct the entire region will have at least a dusting by tomorrow morning. We’ll see of course

See 06z WRF guidance - will see what happens. It takes exceptional circumstances to get an appreciable covering in town anyway.

Worth highlighting what the 06z WRF was forecasting in terms of snow cover for 3pm today (barely any in the NW) compare that with what’s forecast for tomorrow morning. It’s potentially feasible that chances for lying snow will improve later. Wait and see before writing it off.

I’m completely lost as to what to expect overnight? How much has the forecast changed? Any ideas? My head hurts!

God knows what we’ll be faced with later. Fingers crossed for some more snow overnight and into tomorrow morning.