Joe Bloggs

Convection wise, north Lancs often does very poorly compared to areas further south in the NW. I know you’ve not lived in the NW that long but you’d be surprised just how often the Irish Sea can deliver some really decent showers across Cheshire and Greater Manchester. They tend to expand and grow as they push inland too and very often can form streamers. December 2009 was a rare event when areas like Lancaster and Preston bore the brunt of the convective snow but very few areas missed out; the air was just so cold. My general snow rule of thumb for 850’s is -8C or lower for lowland NW England, -10C or lower directly on the coast (a la December 2010), I remember beefy snow showers pushing into Liverpool Bay and up the Mersey to Manchester in completely none marginal conditions. The inevitably was absolutely magical. The wet bulb freezing level is one of the best parameters to check for snow but the data is so hard to come by. I used to love checking the EURO4 model on weather online as it was so good at picking up shower activity. Anyway - I do think there could be some surprises on Tuesday night, but I’d be happier if uppers were slightly colder. If we get rain at low levels it would be hugely disappointing given the synoptic setup and the time of year. This is a test.

Only joking, Glossop is lovely of course. I can’t say a word as I live in Salford.

The Irish Sea can deliver further inland though and further south in the region. December 2009, January 2010 and December 2010 are good examples of this. If the air is cold enough and the flow is slack enough we can get some fantastic streamers, not always just “popcorn showers” even if they usually are like that closer to the coast.

UKV is decent for parts of the region. Actually shows some depth!

That’s what you get for living on the Costa del Wirral! Although I’m not much better now in Manchester City centre.

Did they do away with EURO4? That always seemed to model Manchester snow streamers really well

30 Jan 2019 was a good westerly snow event, photos below, a good few inches. 29 Jan 2015 was another good one but with lower 500 hPa temps and a stronger flow than usual, a streamer setup though and gave a really good snow event in the end. Kicked in during the morning rush hour and was chaos. December 2020 also delivered some westerly snow but not quite as impressive as 2019. I’m down south on Tuesday so it’ll almost certainly snow!

We’ll see! Hopefully we’ll get some snow. I’m in a proper snow desert now though so my expectations are very limited!

God I’m a right barrel of laughs tonight aren’t I ! I’ve gone all @Geordiesnow on you all! All I mean is that the synoptic setup for Monday night into Tuesday looks near perfect for the NW.. A slack westerly flow would normally bring in slow moving beefy showers off the Irish Sea. I guess what I’m saying is if they’re all rain apart from on the highest ground then it could be we’ve hit a bit of a tipping point. If there’s no precipitation at all then it really will be a fairly unusual westerly flow. I’d be very surprised if it’s dry, although I suppose every northwesterly is unique.

Living here in Manchester - a slack, cold westerly flow has historically delivered some very decent snowfalls indeed. Most weather events of lying snow, certainly in low lying south Manchester, would look like the chart I posted above. It is our biggest snow maker, and I could post numerous archive charts to support this. Sometimes local knowledge is best. If we struggle to get any lying snow early next week (away from the highest hills) then we need to temper our future expectations very significantly indeed. Yes the truth does hurt, but there we are.

If somewhere in the NW doesn’t get lying snow from this big picture synoptic setup then we honestly might as well stop chasing. Also, if uppers end up rising to -5C or above we might as well throw the towel in too. I know that sounds defeatist and melodramatic, but climate change has well and truly kicked in if we can’t get snow in this setup in mid January. The vector and wind strength is near perfect. We’ll see.

Another fascinating account, sounds like Manchester was absolutely clobbered! Interesting about the unenforced by-law that all homeowners should be clearing the snow from their section of street! Happy New Year

Thanks for posting this Kev. Absolute gold. ”on Oxford street it lay mainly on the east side, on Stretford road it lay mainly on the south side… into mounds of a foot deep”. I just can’t imagine a snow storm like this in Manchester City centre. Nice to know it is at least physically possible and on this occasion there was no snow shadow and the precipitation didn’t die a death. Although I’d have expected the drifts on Oxford street to be on the western side of the road in an easterly wind.

For god sake I avoid the Covid thread on TWO for this very reason! I find posts like this very triggering! Not saying you’re wrong btw.

Don’t think any precipitation has made it to the ground here ! Typical SE’ly wind

Has anyone mentioned the Manchester SE’ly shadow yet?

Manchester Bolton and Bury Canal frozen solid , also looking very wintry out of my living room window! Shame there’s no snow cover.

Thanks Kevin. I know we’ve discussed this event before over on TWO I think . I’m sure we’ll get a repeat this winter. That Facebook link I sent you has photographic evidence of deep, drifting snow on Cheetham Hill Road. Not far off the city centre at all. There’s a photo that does the round that claims it’s Mosley Street with an INSANE amount of snow, but it’s actually Aberdeen.

-11C at Rostherne this morning is mighty impressive .

https://m.facebook.com/ManchesterHistoryRevisited/photos/a.750616545033326/750617298366584/?type=3 one for @Weather-history - do you know which weather event caused this historical snow fall just outside Manchester City centre in 1900?

-9C at Rostherne at 10pm!

We’ve lost our near-perfect WNW’ly on the 18z . Still damned cold though

ECM not a bad run for our patch either tbh. Would love some proper Irish Sea convective showers. Manchester can do so well if the angle is just right. Very very fine margins. @CreweCold @Day 10and @captaincroc prefer a NW’ly, myself @Had Worse @raul_sbd @Weather-history and @Frigid prefer a WNW’ly and @damianslaw probably prefers something resembling a SW’ly and @Geordiesnow thinks all Irish Sea showers are bobbins ! ….. and @northwestsnow up there in Oldham will get plastered whatever happens . Some good net weather knowledge right there!!! Lol

Yes we always do well when the winds fall lighter.

It’s pornographic, but I remember being excited by a setup like that a few years ago, and all we had was a few passing graupel showers, with Glasgow getting absolutely pasted. Ideally we like a lighter drift here. Still, it’s a good setup for us if it comes off.