Joe Bloggs
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12z Arpege looks quite promising, especially towards West Cheshire (and hilly areas obviously) Note this is not actual snow lying
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An absolute pain in the weeble, but yet completely unsurprising. It just isn’t a SE’ly wind either - this happens whenever the wind is from a general easterly quarter. Manchester isn’t a snowless city because of convective potential from the Irish Sea, but big, frontal snow events are vanishingly rare in the city itself because of this very phenomenon. We’ll see what happens.
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I suspect Liverpool/western parts of the region could do well tomorrow. Certainly better than Manchester
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Cute little snowless hole over my house on the 12z WRF Aww. Maybe I’ll see some falling at least.
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on the other NMM/WRF model which goes out slightly further, the shadow area does recede eventually into Friday, very slowly. from what I’ve seen, G Manchester will struggle to get any lying snow until the early hours of Friday which is what @Kasim Awan was alluding to yesterday. That horrible gaping hole over the area in the snow accumulation charts is very visible again sadly, obviously there is lots of uncertainty so we will have to see.
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Snow shadow Exhibit A (note it may get better after this, this is the last chart of the run)
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I am not at all surprised. It’s the wind direction.. we saw exactly the same in 2013.
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Oh I remember all those events! February 2005 is an interesting case study as we didn’t struggle with the precipitation , but it just fell as rain. I wonder why there wasn’t a shadow then?
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yes this makes sense as the high res models show more accumulating snow in Manchester in the early hours of Friday compared to Thursday. thanks for your thoughts mate
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Just having a look through the high res models and the shadow is definitely evident but just about everywhere gets a bit of snow at some point. Biblical amounts in the Peak District
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Not getting my hopes up after the 2013 debacle. Not expecting any settling snow, any we do get is a bonus. no doubt other areas of the NW will do well.
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Thanks mate that’s good to know. We will see.
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Yes good point, I won’t expect anything here, and then I’ll treat any snow as a bonus. The phenomenon is a real pain in the proverbial. A lighter wind and low heights would help
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Dare I ask about the two word expletive? Starts in S and ends in W. @Kasim Awan any thoughts ?
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2013 was so frustrating for Manchester because of the consistent ESE’ly wind. We missed out on a very localised basis.
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I agree , it also doesn’t help that GS lives in probably the most snowless parts of the region. The North West is a big place and as you say Cheshire did pretty well in December with Manchester (especially central) not doing as well as normally would in such a setup. In general I’d say parts of Cheshire and more especially just out of our patch, North Staffs (especially round Stoke) are usually pretty well placed for convective snow most years.
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Gorgeous as always. The snows alright as well
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Don’t torture yourselves . It’s weakening to barely anything
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To me it looks like it’s weakening in the most recent radar frames. I’d be very surprised if it comes to anything.
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Based on most recent winters in the NW I think Cheshire is the sweet spot for snow, particularly mid and SE Cheshire. Shower activity tends to be very reliable from most NW’ly flows, and the area can pick up the tail end of more northerly streamers as they push south. Also avoids the maritime influence of the coast. Areas further north in the region seem to be far less prone even with some altitude. Obviously easterlies change everything up but how often do they happen!
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Moderate snow shower about to hit north Manchester
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I’ve missed out too, I’m allowed to be mean
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Sale about to get another nice shower.
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It’s snowing here now , looks nice but we’re missing the heavy stuff.
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This is taking the actual mickey now. I give up!!!
