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Posts posted by Cheshire Freeze
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GFS consistent with strong Greenland heights towards the latter part of the month-
Creates a path for the jet stream to ultimately head south once more-
Any settling down with HP close to the UK looks a temporary affair as things stand…though with the swampish nature of the landscape at the moment, any dry weather is appreciated.
Any southerly tracking low pressure will start to pack more rainfall as we approach May and more latent energy is added into the fold. That’s what made May-July 2007 so wet (high PWAT values).
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bluearmy it’d be quite something to go an entire spring without a UK HP at some point during its course…so it was always likely to perk up.
The kicker will be whether it’s a temporary pattern change or something a bit more substantial.
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On a dog walk yesterday and I’ve never seen the ground so saturated. Large pools of water just sat atop submerged grass.
This isn’t even one of the worst affected places by rainfall over the last 9 months or so.
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northwestsnow yep EC and GFS both hinting at repeated N’ly outbreaks courtesy of N Atlantic heights.
Could be some unseasonably cold nights with that set up.
Going forward it’ll be interesting to see where developing La Nina takes us. It’ll be one of two routes IMO. Heights that move E at the mid latitude (Euro heights and plumes) or heights that alternate between Greenland and Scandi, leaving the UK at the mercy of slow moving troughs (ala 2007).
What route transpires will ultimately dictate the early summer period (May-July) IMO.
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This rain is really heavy. The airmass is holding a lot of moisture.
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danm pah! Scotland hit that in January didn’t they
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A Face like Thunder 7 months
Heading into the tough time of year for me, hate the long days.
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The rain really doesn’t bother me…guess I’m weird
Feel sorry for the people it does get down and depress, that’s how I feel during anticyclonic periods!
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Not sure how the upcoming spell is going to unfold. Can the ground take up to another 100mm of rain in the next couple of weeks?
GFS 6z has us up there as one of the wettest parts of the hemisphere. How long until flooding becomes an issue?
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Depends where you are I guess.
May and September are by far the driest months in these parts (NW England) in my experience.
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Cheese Rice -12 850s and low thickness with a strongish sun…I’d take that all day long for the wild weather at the surface it’d likely bring!
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Rapid collapses into Nina usually equals wet, doesn’t it?
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cheshire snow we’re either going to get a late cold spell or deluged by rainfall IMO into late March/early April.
It’s a matter of picking your poison.
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kold weather can’t see how showers have been more intense? There has been a general decrease in thunder activity over the last 10-20 years which I remember being spoken about by the BBC or Metoffice.
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On 06/03/2024 at 13:36, Cheshire Freeze said:
My hunch is we’ll see some sort of Greenland blocking take hold at some point this month.
We’ve seen repeated attempts at retrogressing HP west from Scandi…with a malleable strat profile it’ll only be a matter of time until it succeeds.
My punt has been on a colder than average spring for a long while.
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cheshire snow it was always going to happen.
Amazing how often you get mild winters with cold spells and snow following in March or April.
Given the mild weather up until this point, I’d think any hard frosts would be quite damaging going forward. Things have had pretty much uninterrupted growth up until this time.
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SollyOlly heat knocks me sick
After winter I like a bit of warmth but usually fed up after a week.
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Didn’t take long for the mud to return
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I remember Atlantic 252 April is probably my absolute favourite month weatherwise.
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cheeky_monkey The sort of July chart I like to see
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damianslaw This is the thing. In peak summer you don’t need 30C+ temperatures for it to feel hot. The sun just needs to be out.
21-24C in June and July under sunny skies feels very much like summer.
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Scorcher not really seen anyone get excited about cold at this point?
Think most people, me included, want a bit of warmth and sunshine?