Cheshire Freeze
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Posts posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Mike Poole it was a sum of the parts thing for me really. A few things added up to provide the pessimism once we missed the boat on that split SSW.
@bluearmy has summarised things really well tbh in respect to any resultant blocking being too far N for the UK to benefit.
The Jan SSW was only a temporary displacement- against the backdrop of a strong Nino and a slightly displaced jet, there was never going to be a chance for N Atlantic blocking to get a foothold as the warming relaxed and the SPV headed back west. At that point there was good coupling between strat and trop, which meant the antagonistic response to N Atlantic troughing was enhancement of Euro heights.
The galling thing being, I believe that had a decent split of the SPV occurred, we’d have locked in to a blocked regime that benefited the UK in terms of cold, aided by the MJO. I honestly believe it would have been a noteworthy spell. The MJO on its own was not going to be enough.
TBH with you I’m still left scratching my head as to how that split SSW failed.
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jamesthemonkeh The blocked March signal in the seasonals has been there for months.
We’ll have to wait and see I guess.
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Standard ‘winter in March’ looks like it’s on the horizon to me.
Doesn’t really suit anyone does it?!
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bluearmy Yes. I feel sorry for the cold chasers…wasn’t too bad for me because I mentally checked out in early Jan with the failure of the split SSW.
It was painfully evident to me that we needed that.
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Derecho a rapid transition to La Nina could mean a washout summer for the UK…but you never know with the inflated Azores HP in play.
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Daniel* obviously the data says one thing but I’ve seen more evidence of drought (dried up landscapes) in the last decade than I ever remember before that.
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A Face like Thunder don’t be silly, the rain was always going to return for my walk to work at 2pm! Like clockwork.
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Rain rain and more effin rain
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An air temperature of 2C, a feel like temperature of -4C, a strong E’ly and heavy rain…later on will be grim.
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Mostly rain shown on the automated forecasts now. More rain…yay
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Definite lessening of the snow risk in general.
This winter has been crap, for want of a better word.
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Mike Poole March has been showing as blocked (Greenland) on the seasonals for months…moreso than any other month. It was always going to head that way.
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I remember the Feb 2007 event- forecast to be a wet day with temperatures into low single figures. Instead we got 10cm of lying snow, even here with temperatures around freezing.
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Ali1977 I’ve seen the Arpege as errant as other models
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WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February.
The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031161-
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WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February.
The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course.
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All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it.
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Some warmth in the sun today
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It really could be as simple as an anomalously warm September is brought about by a synoptic pattern which is part of a 6 month (etc) circulation that we don’t yet understand.
As I said, just because we don’t yet understand the mechanism it doesn’t mean the mechanism doesn’t exist.
To assume that it’s a statistical quirk assumes that all months are independent of one another all of the time. I don’t think that’s the case…
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@Weather-history sometimes things just are what they are. There might not seem to be a logical reason that we can fathom right now, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist.
There’s no logical reason for the existence of the universe but here we are.
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Some of the charts coming out are bonkers. GFS has raw values on 2nd Feb of 16c on its 0z run. Meaning 17-18C not out of the question in that scenario.
If the extreme mild charts continue, then for me this will go down as one of the most abysmal winters…and there have been a few of them lately.
A couple of snow days doesn’t hide the fact that this winter has mostly been dire.
I suspect we’ll see an early spring that’s followed by an anomalously cold spell in March or April.
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@Dark Horse it is worrying. The acceleration of summer warming across S and central Europe is frightening IMO. We’re seeing these higher than normal upper temperatures come earlier and earlier, year on year.
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Winds stronger here with this storm than Isha.
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Just now, RobR said:Yeah it really isn't amber worthy for this part. We had worse around Christmas. Not even any bins on the street have moved!
Yeah I was thinking that earlier.
It’s breezy for sure but it feels like a typical winter depression rather than anything noteworthy.
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
You have to laugh really, you just know what’s coming for March. Trough dropping into Europe and HP stretching somewhere between Greenland and Scandi