[General summer chat]

 damianslaw I don’t. Unless the air is dry too rather than that humid, hot crap we’ve had to endure in recent years.

Would much prefer a situation with HP slightly to our west and a gentle NW’ly flow if it has to be dry.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Not much comment on the ECM this evening. Not surprising.

10 day rainfall totals widely approaching 2 inches for many.

[General summer chat]

 In Absence of True Seasons overnight minima fall no lower than 20C

[General summer chat]

EC has lost its HP dominated signal for summer and suggests a mean Scandi trough

[Ongoing Sudden Stratospheric Warming could delay spring warmth]

My hunch is we’ll see some sort of Greenland blocking take hold at some point this month.

We’ve seen repeated attempts at retrogressing HP west from Scandi…with a malleable strat profile it’ll only be a matter of time until it succeeds.

My punt has been on a colder than average spring for a long while. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS 12z- the wet continues

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 stainesbloke A wet summer would though pretty much ensure a drier and colder? next winter. It would be unprecedented otherwise.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Chris.R doesn’t surprise me. We had torrential sleety rain as it passed through here.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Gowon

Exactly why I’ve always erred on the side of pessimism. Every time I let myself get mildly excited about something and think positively, the rug is pulled!

I once had a mate turn around to me and say, straight faced, ‘I think you might actually be cursed’!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS shows cold still coming in from the E well into FI

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GEM and UKMO are also both cold this morning-

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Can’t say I’m surprised by this as March always looked nailed on for N blocking to take hold.

It would be hasty to rule out a cold pool pushing across the UK in the next couple of weeks.

Growing support for a post-SSW coldish E’ly IMO…what is it with March being the most wintry month these days?

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

 al78 I can still sense it’s light outside. It seems to sound different, if that makes sense.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS is very wet for SW areas. Edging 100mm more rain in the next two weeks

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

I think tomorrow has the possibility to catch some people out.

Looks cold enough through the whole profile of the atmosphere (though marginal) and winds are offshore.

A lot of places are going to see a period of heavy, wet snow. Probably accumulating from 100m + (slushy wet deposits) with more substantial accumulation 150m+

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

 SollyOlly I find May, June and July really trying due to the light levels. The midday sun is far too harsh for me, along with the annoyance of 3am light.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Soon be autumn

We wish for summer but by the time it arrives we’re so much closer to the days darkening again.

[Spring 2024]

 Addicks Fan 1981 never really seen any of these pattern matches or analogues come off really. We’ll see.

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 WYorksWeather Option 7 looks most likely to me. We’ve seen a drive to cut emissions over the past decade or so and the warming continues to accelerate. That to me says that we’re locked into a feedback of consequences and tipping point has been breached.

It’s too late IMO. Would be delighted to be proved wrong though. 

[Changing Attitudes: Climate Change]

 kold weather given what we’ve seen over the past few years in terms of accelerated warming, I personally think it’s too late for any amount of change to have any effect. We’re locked into runaway feedback IMO and we’re watching it play out.

I think the money would be better spent mitigating the effects…giving people grants/access to cheap air conditioning etc.

[Spring 2024]

Interesting those lingering shallow lows around the UK are very ‘La Nina summer’ like. Saw such in 2007.

If we can get that pattern into spring then we could see some decent diurnally driven convection.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Any dry spell looks on thin ice to me- two week rainfall totals approaching 80-90mm in places

We look to be well and truly in the midst of an extended wet period.

We could well end up with a slow moving undercutting jet through March (given any modelled HP will likely end up further N due to SSW effects).

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Stabilo19 That’s exactly what is happening.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard quite.

Would not be surprised if this spring follows the typical Nino pattern with winds mostly north of west into March and perhaps April.

I wouldn’t be counting on a warm early-mid spring by any stretch.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I’ve been saying about March for a while…