[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Don't look at Met text forecasts. Chocolate teapot 2.0

What am I meant to be looking at then because there’s nothing in the modelling?

Winds are too N’ly to get precipitation into inland NW England on Thur.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Even the Metoffice text forecast doesn’t mention anything for Wed/Thur

‘Probably drier and sunnier on Wednesday and Thursday with isolated wintry showers. Staying cold with frost and ice.’

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 hour ago, Joe Snow said:

Wed/ Thursdays snow warnings are like others have mentioned really baffling me - Met seem to be highlighting the risk of 2-10cm of snow quite widely Tues-Thurs very much an expect the unexpected kind of week. Personally don't think low levels will see much more than a 2-3cm covering at best higher ground & the north of the region likely to do better maybe. Would love to see some surprises though. Very cold nights can't be underestimated either -3/-4/-5c quite widely and lower than that potentially with any snow cover before a signalled transition to something less cold over next weekend. 

I looked at the warning and was equally as baffled. Not so much as a flake of snow showing on the automated forecast.

I’m guessing the warning may well be removed for us tomorrow.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

11 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Writing off the entire winter because the op runs bring in the Atlantic mid january 

 

How does ‘into February’ write off the next 6-7 weeks?

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Yep - plenty of potential in that no matter what the current NWP models are showing. All sorts of things can crop up in 96 hours with low T850's covering the whole country (incl. Eire / N.Ire)

Don’t see where any surprises are meant to come from. Flow isn’t strong nor established enough. Winds very slack in the ‘dead zone’ to the N of that LP skirting to the S.

If you’re in the Midlands, for example, any snow chances look isolated.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is now strat w2 and trop w2 look unerringly similar so how do we get out of it.

We’re looking into February, possibly even back end.

I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

It never did - look to our South over the Azores and over the US. The reason this cold spell has gone wrong is evident right now. The Iberian high is far too strong which pulls the high away from trying to move into Greenland.

This limits the Greenland high resulting in the cold easterly being too far North. Then the Atlantic can quickly return.

This all likely to be a result of not enough SSW forcing in place as I discussed with @Cheshire Freeze. To conclude you can discuss the finer details of telleconnections but until the basics are in place such as strong SSW, low pressure into Iberia, optimal setup over the US, it's unlikely that a significant or sustained cold spell will materialise.

 

Yep called it ages ago via PM to you, as you know. As soon as that split SSW failed the writing was on the wall.

I’ve been fairly quiet in here because to be honest I didn’t want the backlash for being ‘negative’.

The trop teleconnections can take you so far but if the strat is against you (as it is since the displacement) then it’s sub optimal. It might be weaker than average but it’s spinning away where we don’t want it, rather than being split or displaced well away from our N or NW.

We can only hope that it’s not too wet going forward because I fear flooding will be the main news going forward if we go hyper zonal.

GFS is trending wetter and wetter, another 100mm of rain in some exposed western parts before month’s end.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

There really is no easy way out of this pattern shown on GFS FI

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, low levels like my area may struggle, this trough seems to be killing the cold uppers

Only in the UK would you see a slight disturbance like that kick up a sector of that magnitude.

Absolute cack.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

UKMO

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

I’ll eat my dog and I love my dog! If there isn’t a disturbance that throws up snow next week!

Your poor dog will be checking the outputs more than the snow starved members on here.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

The icon chart, top one will be useless here, Manchester/Preston etc in firing like for over a foot

Yeah but prior to that winds are straight NW’ly

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

need winds more NW'ly here, this will bury SK4, like 20th Dec '09 and 5th Jan '10

The winds were far more westerly in those instances (like the 120hrs chart)

 

Dec 09-

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Cheshire gap activity here I’d have thought @Joe Snow

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

My tolerance for winter is decreasing year on year as I get older.

Utterly depressing being under cloud and a cold wind day after day. If it’s not going to snow I’m not really interested.

Spring is the best season for me these days.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Alexis said:

More nostalgia - before 2010 this was the biggest snowfall I can remember, in 2000...

Remember that one. Even here the snow was fairly deep.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

I think heights were always due to weaken around 23rd. Not saying the teleconnections ppl are fortune telling gurus but they have long said this would happen on this date. Renewed blocking end of month into Feb. Just a waiting game I suppose. 

Yeah I think we’ll almost certainly see a resurgence of blocking into Feb. Certainly looking more likely than not at present.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Thats a cold looking gfs mean this morning..hardly gets above -5 throughout

Yeah I’m not throwing in the towel on next week yet, personally. Not whilst we have a fairly decent UKMO.

A good EC det run would be greatly appreciated though!

Hopefully some part of the UK can see a snowfall from this, whether it be N or S.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Certainly not dry on the ukmo at 168.

Also a fair few Scandinavian heights been picked up in the gefs at day 10 now too.

Here’s the GEFS mean pressure anomaly- it’s a continuation of the prevailing winter pattern to date with the jet slamming into the UK

 

Possibly worse than that as LP slows down around the UK

Let’s hope for changes to that prognosis! Modelling possibly overreacting to the signal.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

People were on about red warnings yesterday. The only red thing we’re likely to see is the red mist of another winter weather fail.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes sticking last nights ECM with the last couple of GFS makes you wonder why some want the initial low to miss to the south..it might be the only chance you get to see some snow!

Agreed.

All moot really but it’d have been better to get the big snow event, even if there was to be a rapid thaw after. At least we’d see the snow.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Some higher cumulative rainfall totals starting to be shown on the GFS now

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

I will consider this winter a success

Sandbag and dinghy manufacturers certainly will

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If it’s the SSW causing issues then hopefully the METO models have this ironed out - the arpege looks good and at short range than should be better than the GFS.  Hopefully the op is an outlier too

It’s as simple to me as the displacement of the SPV to the Eurasian side of the hemisphere has not been strong or long lasting enough. Displacing back a touch too early to allow blocking in the North Atlantic sector to properly take hold and deliver.

A split would have ensured more opportunity for blocking to manifest and result in a protracted spell of winter weather.

The trop and strat look well coupled to my eyes in places, especially N Atlantic sector and towards the Aleutian side.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

This all goes back to the failed split SSW IMO. Which I mentioned at the time as being significant.

As the SPV pushes across the N Atlantic it looks to me like we’re seeing rapid downwelling of the upper zonals…hence why the blocking seems to just evaporate. Seems the most plausible explanation to me as there seems to be forcing rapidly overwhelming trop based drivers.

Had we got the proper split I think we’d be staring down the barrel of a memorable and prolonged spell now.

I wonder if analysis by the twitter strat gurus will conclude the same thing post season.