Cheshire Freeze

ECM has a stronger, flatter jet profile to the N of the UK Than the GFS 18z which is weaker and less flat- The differences will be telling as the GFS will probably go on to be blocked whereas I'm really not sure the ECM would evolve as favourably as some are seemingly suggesting.

The GFS is nowhere near as bad as the ECM- even with the 'climbdown'. Nowhere near as good as the 12z but pressure is still higher around Iceland than either the ECM or GEM. I just hope it doesn't move further tomorrow

There's clearly ramifications in the closer timescales RE how that upstream low is handled...IF the ECM is proven correct then my old age comment about the ensembles being pretty meaningless will hold true because the GEFS are fully behind the GFS op in that regard. If they flip (as I've seen them do before) then in my eyes ensemble agreement and clustering is relatively useless as they just follow the flaw that caused the op to be wrong in the first place.

ECM 240 CFS daily run for December Uncanny similarities

Because the ECM output continues to look worse and worse. Not easy to see how we get cold from there at day 8 (in an easy fashion)..which leaves 5/6 days until that 2 week timeframe... We're a gnats whisker of a shallow trough away from a pretty big +NAO at day 8. This even more true with the GEM which was, quite frankly, hideous and quite possible if we don't get that initial amplification and drive of WAA northwards. I think you may be underestimating the importance of that in the overall progression.

Well if the GFS is wrong it's going to flip pretty much an entire ensemble suite in the GEFS....I'd like to say I haven't seen that happen before- but I have!

Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!

Better angle of WAA at day 5 than was showing on the 0z...by a fair margin. Although by day 6, maybe not... Nick I think we could have a potential unfolding drama on our hands! When compared to the GFS at the same timeframe, the differences are stark

Yep and whilst we still have output like that appearing, I certainly won't be popping any champagne corks!

GEM isn't too pretty...had to check it said 2016 at the top and not 2015!

My lord, charts like that should be post watershed. Stunning doesn't even begin to describe that synoptic.

Here is our chance on this run to start to advect some colder uppers our way... Really is an impressive high that btw...

Oh I don't know...that low that travelled up through the UK from the south around the day 8/9 ,mark is doing a good job of trying to screw us over...

Must say, there's something quite depressing about a warm front heading in from the EAST at this time of year lol. All that blocking and we end up with +5 to +10 uppers trying to invade from the continent!

The 6z had a threat of wintryness for lower ground too, although there would certainly be no settling there

If there is an exceptionally strong signal it will run with it...it did brilliantly during the March-April 2013 spell. Had it nailed weeks before (and remained steady right up until the event).

I'm actually slightly concerned by the CFS v2 daily runs at the moment. For the past two days worth of runs, the N blocking signature has completely crumbled for Dec and Jan, replaced with something utterly more average. You can't even claim run to run variation on this because up until a couple of days ago it was resolute with the blocking signature for December. I'd expect to see the blocking ebb away from the means on the NOAA site over the next couple of days given what I've seen. I'm not saying it's the death knell for December cold but it's something to be wary of at least.

Yep, seems to be really having a number done on it this year; with the potential for further weakening courtesy of a warming.

It's almost as if it's trying to initiate a block which stretches all the way from the east of Canada right across to Scandi. Can't say I've seen the likes of this thrown out before even in deep FI. Really is bizarre stuff

Bizarre chart...truly bizarre. Looks like it's heading for the mother of all west based -NAOs Strat looks to be in a bit of bother at the end of the run too

Pub run turning into a beauty...poles apart from the ECM

No those 27 members were cyclonic at that specific point in time (end of November) but there's nothing to say that another half of those didn't go on to be blocked a few days later.

I'm really struggling to remember snow at all last winter. Think there was one (very small) wet fall at some point but hardly worthy of being called a snowfall. It really was dire.

Nope!

Looks suspect as early as day 5 to me blue.