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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole March has been showing as blocked (Greenland) on the seasonals for months…moreso than any other month. It was always going to head that way. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ali1977 I’ve seen the Arpege as errant as other models -
WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February. The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5031161
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
WeatherArc looking ominous for summer when we’re seeing plumes of that strength modelled in February. The acceleration in the warming trend over the past few years is alarming…just in my opinion of course. -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Cheshire Freeze replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Cheshire Freeze replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It really could be as simple as an anomalously warm September is brought about by a synoptic pattern which is part of a 6 month (etc) circulation that we don’t yet understand. As I said, just because we don’t yet understand the mechanism it doesn’t mean the mechanism doesn’t exist. To assume that it’s a statistical quirk assumes that all months are independent of one another all of the time. I don’t think that’s the case… -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Cheshire Freeze replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
@Weather-history sometimes things just are what they are. There might not seem to be a logical reason that we can fathom right now, but that doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist. There’s no logical reason for the existence of the universe but here we are. -
Some of the charts coming out are bonkers. GFS has raw values on 2nd Feb of 16c on its 0z run. Meaning 17-18C not out of the question in that scenario. If the extreme mild charts continue, then for me this will go down as one of the most abysmal winters…and there have been a few of them lately. A couple of snow days doesn’t hide the fact that this winter has mostly been dire. I suspect we’ll see an early spring that’s followed by an anomalously cold spell in March or April.
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Winds stronger here with this storm than Isha.
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Doesn’t seem too bad here. Must be getting some shelter from the Welsh uplands to the west and southwest.
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ICON seems to have upgraded wind speeds on it’s 0z run compared to its 18z- I make that widespread inland 60-70mph gusts with 80mph gusts in more exposed locations. Widespread amber warning is on its way I’m guessing.
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