[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

15 hours ago, Eugene said:

Big downgrade for the warmies this week from what the models were showing a week ago, down from 20C to low teens and feeling chilly in easterly wind this week.

"Warmies"??  Seeing you've been a member here for more than 15 years, you're obviously not a child though...

It's a strange description for those that make up >95% of the population, whatever.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Looking at Wikipedia, the mean July temperature for London is 19C - 23.9C average max, 14.2C average min.

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is the first time I've seen a sting jet modelled so emphatically. I don't think we have a good example to follow (St Jude's day had a mini one?). It's going to be interesting (and scary) to see how it goes.

Yes, experienced the St Jude one. Short duration (10 minutes?) but intense and scary.

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Can sting jets be modelled then? Interesting (and worrying for anyone under that!)

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Aha!

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

Sitting here, awaiting a Met Office update...

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

What the 06Z Icon run is showing doesn't warrant Eunice even being a named storm, IMO.

I'm not up to speed with model statistics, so how well rated is Icon? It does seem to update very quickly...

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

I'd be very surprised if amber warnings weren't issued later this morning (and to be honest, it seems a reasonable timeframe to me) Maybe red later tomorrow for the expected worst zone.

I've always expected this sort of timeframe - the existing warning area is very broad and imprecise, which to me reflects the uncertainty. It'll change today.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Sleety rain in Colchester. 

Imagine actually being excited by this "event"

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

This crops up every year and tickles me pink!

i live so far south, that I can almost dip my toes in the sea from my garden.

march 2018, from memory 18th/19th so hardly early March either..

snow can stick in March

Fabulous though it was, it (BFTE) was very unusual for southern England. Nowhere near the longevity potential of even a couple of weeks earlier.

If I was boring enough, I would post some stats to emphasise. 

[Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At it's coldest nationwide  Ecm 12z T+144

What a funkin' pain. Can't abide sharp late frosts. Two weeks later would probably be worse for growers but I'd rather this crap was reserved for Winter proper, which I suspect would make 99% of people happier.

[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

No sign of any high pressure or warmer weather on the 12z. Pretty cold but probably not cold enough for snow at lower levels, the worst kind of weather.

Boo-urns!!

Yep, I'm seeing big Spring showers, with a wintry mix. Don't mind this tbh though.

[Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins]

4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Lol, I don't think everyone is aware your from Sweden. - 10c, my god even I was getting excited then!

 I thought he was trolling!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

20 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ive been spat at and slapped...and kneeded-in the knackers.....

Keep an eye on the annoms..

@500 geopt ht!..

Watch the divulge in evo..of height alignment with a STIFF-easterly flow..

And yes counterparted with notable isotherms!!!.

Wear ya t'shirts...but keep a wooly hat; n jumper to wack over the top...

@backloaded

@winter strikes bk!!

 

 

He whom laughs last...LAUGHS LOUDEST!!

TA-LAR 4 NOW..

Anyone who discards winter clothing by mid February is a fool. 

Edited, to remove what might have been considered by some, to be somewhat provocative

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

58 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I wouldn't pay the apps too much heed, somewhere will soar well above those sorts of figures. Typically setups like that tend to lead to local maxes of 17-19c (as we saw on Friday) and more general maxes between 13-16c).

You were correct Kold and I thought your observations at the time were correct too. 

[Winter 2018/19 – cold long range models, SSW events and favourable global drivers… where did it go wrong? A review.]

I quite like these sort of things tbh. When events test our preconceptions, we learn. All good in the long term.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

E17, I'd be happy with either a cold spell, with snow, or even an early taste of Spring, with frost in the morning and mild sunshine afterwards. Both good for my soul. 

North Sea haar, fret, gloom, I'm depressed typing it!

Cheers for the optimistic post!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Tbh I think it has a lot to do with the dry summer too. A lot of trees got weakened by that. 

Yes, Alexis. Cannot have helped. Didn't think of that factor tbh.

I was going to post an illustrative photo from Spring, where a large branch crashed onto a cul de sac road I was returning along. I'd originally made the outward leg less than an hour earlier. It made me wonder if I could get back - a large hard to shift bough. This was very early in the morning and I know I was the only vehicle and no-one else was about. Light winds. Made me think a bit!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018]

Run of the mill winter storm for sure. We have similar every winter. The only reason a fair number of trees have come down is that trees grow old and die and crash to earth naturally, sometimes with little prompting. This moderately strong blow was enough.

I'd say we haven't had a major winter storm for many years in our patch (maybe an unnaturally long "lull"?) Possibly 2002 but I'd go back to the Burns' Day Storm of 1990. At that point, in 1990, it was our third big storm in under 15 years. 

Storms just after Christmas 1999 caused gusts of over 100mph in Paris (Storms Lothar and Martin?) Paris is possibly slightly less 'favoured" for major windstorms than us. When we get our next major windstorm, some of you will be shocked, if you think the last 24 hours were out of the ordinary. 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Take it from a old fart, March/April can, have and will continue to deliver what winter sometimes doesn't: 1965, 1970, 1975, 1989, 1990, 2006...2018 all had Springtime snowfall...so I suspect that the preceding winter has little or no effect upon what Spring holds???

Throw in the towel? Not likely!

I'll absolutely not be looking for cold after early April and tbh this forum would feel like one for miscreants to me, if lots were still hunting for it by then, to gain pleasure.

The late frosts a couple of years ago did a lot of damage to the horticultural and our fledgling wine industry. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

7 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location  since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.

Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?

I don't think many are throwing in the towel. After all, in my location, we had a weekend of lying (and hardly thawing) snow in late March 2013. Never thought I'd ever see that but tbh the memorable part was the lateness. If the snow had been in February I'd probably have forgotten it by now (or at least the timing)

My preference for snow is for a reasonable cover that lies for several days at least. A covering that immediately turns to slush has zero interest for me. 

So no throwing in the towel but for my preference, the clock is very much ticking. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

12 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

You would have to say the models correctly haven't promised anything all Winter. It's been dominated by "background signals" which were a total fail. Of course it kept us positive and I expect most of us would have been well depressed last Christmas if we knew the 3 weeks of anticlonic gloom was going to lead to nought overall!! My thoughts on the ssw is that as is usual it affected the weather very quickly and the beneficiary was Austria/Germany region. Think trucks jack knifing not really more like daffodils and daisies in January lol

Yes, that long spell of gloom was tiresome. I suppose at least some did well last week. Not here on the Essex / Suffolk border though. As always happens for some in a cold spell.

I think we'll still have a cold shot around early March (MJO 8 etc.) but whether it's memorable? We'll soon be fighting the changing seasons - average temperatures begin an inexorable climb from about 20th Feb. Maybe, maybe not this time.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

39 minutes ago, snowspotter said:

With regards to this so called winter . It’s been the worst by a country mile with the model performance . All rather embarrassing when I’ve told friends and family the science behind what was going to happen.

I agree with this.  Mind you I wouldn't say I was embarrassed. I've just lost a bit of credibility. Hey ho, hardly too big a deal!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

31 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Really quick from me this morning..

Which ties in nicely with the mood in here this morn..

-premature MISScalculation..

More later.

X

It seems to me, you've been doing this a lot of this, this winter tbh.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Based on what exactly, believing fl charts are going to verify,? same as IDO continually posting day 16 mean charts which again never verify but still he continues to do it  for some reason

ECM doesn't look  too bad either. 

I agree with your last sentence, in that there could be slight frosts followed by warmish sunny days coming up. Pleasant for me and just as pleasing as a crisp day in Autumn. 

I detest day after day of endless cloud and suffer a bit from SAD.