[South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat]

Are those showers in wales likely to track towards west wilts?

[Upcoming Cold Spell Discussion]

Warnings re tonight-tomorrow will be issued this morning. Wales, Midlands and parts of N at greatest risk of disruptive snow.

Any chance of Wiltshire getting any snow?

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

A 30-50 mile shift west on 4 successive runs really isn't that much.

Depends if you live near the ruddy M4!!

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

In the short term, an upgrade from the GFS regarding snow potential for southern England on Sunday morning.

[Model Output Discussion - 16th Jan 12z onwards - Smile While You Post!]

Well 1947 it ain't, but still a wintry looking 5 days, which is good considering where we were a couple of weeks ago!

I don't buy into the opinion that now we're nearer the reliable time frame the models won't revert back. At the moment I'd say the reliable time frame is about T6. Subtle changes can have a big affect the outcome in this present situation.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>]

Heavy rain shower in warminster, no sleet/snow yet

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>]

 

GFS(P) is still on our side lol!

On the national forecast it looked like that heavier PPN coming up through the Bristol Channel is taking a more NE track and heading into the south midlands, rather than a more easterly track as previously forecast. Anyway, still time to change!

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>]

BBC News 24 forecast just now showed snow for tom eve to the north of our region into the south midlands.

No snow graphic for down here.

I think it was an uptodate forecast as well.

Bloody typical!

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

I said "*largely* one focused (to SW)" - ie aside from the stronger certainty in North. But specifically didn't say 'confined to'... just for clarity!!

NB I was referring only to southern England situation

Ha, I think Fergie just gave you the hair dryer treatment!!

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Thanks Ian, so the EC clusters continue to indicate a high powered jet then until the end of the month? Is the MetO current view of next week storm that its severe (as GFS) or less (as ECM)?

edit : think you've just answered that above !

Why do people who ask questions, only to realise they know the answer, write "edit........."? Why not just delete your post?

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Another potentially very nasty storm showing up for 162 on the GFS

 

 

Also showing on the GFSP but a bit further North and West.  Hope these don't come to fruition!

 

Blimey, where's the UK gone!?

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Bill farkin reckons we are in for a mild winter

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

I love how unpredictable weather is. I know people are frustrated and would like more clarification, but it would be sooo boring if metriologists could foresee the weather in detail a week ahead. It's such a fascinating week ahead, and in my view we are lucky that it coincides with the Christmas week. We have a period full of exciting possibilities, so let's all sit back with a glass of mulled wine and enjoy. Merry Chrostmas everyone!

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Where are you Fergie?? What are your thoughts on the latest model runs?

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

silly comment in my view-will post in more detail tomorrow

Don't take lift too seriously! He was clearly having a laugh

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Looking at the models, there's got to be a good chance of a white Xmas somewhere in the UK! I've never put a bet on before, but quite fancy a £20 bet this year. Where would you bet on? Aberdeen is a good shout, but rubbish odds!

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Well, the models seem to firming up on this cold trend! huzzah

 

I just wondered why Michael Fish has forecast an average Christmas, with mild air pushing in after boxing day towards the weekend? does he have privy to data otherwise known to the rest of us?

 

At least he did say he could be wrong, and as we all know, he's got it wrong before...!!  

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

I put my white pants in the washing machine with colours and they came out pink. I did exactly the same thing in 2010, and we all know how cold that winter was!

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

I don't even care about cold and snow now. I'm so fed up of months of cloud and rain, I just want a nice sunny warm spring!

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

Not much love from GFS as it shows another big storm valentines day

good excuse not to go out and pay for an expensive meal!!

[Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards]

18z = wet and windy

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

To save you all waiting - similar UKMO-GM from T+120 onwards. Signal for the colder entrainment is one with confidence now next week... how long it lasts, is not. More woes end of next week, re disruptive weather? It's got a bothersome look...

Oh Ian, your such a tease!!!

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14]

Latest met office update sounds pathetic! Not in line with the latest model runs!! What do they know that we don't Steve M?

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

Yeah, I'm not convinced we are even close to resolving some key issues especially mid-later next week. I'm aware of varying outcomes being considered. Anyway, let's see how it unfolds between runs tonight and end of the weekend. Understandably, everyone this end is focused on the looming issues now to end of Sunday.

Indeed, the main focus should be on the amount of rain looming before looking towards possible cold. I would imagine the village of Muchelney on the Somerset levels will be more concerned about remaining as an island, and not sinking at this rate.

[Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.]

I think Gibby's post was balanced enough. By T+144 the latest UKMO assessment (just issued) has concerns re snow in NE/E Scotland but not elsewhere. Shannon Entropy highest d9 re timing of broadly zonal return (but confidence fairly high re latter eventually). Into 10-15d trend, broadly westerly mobility expected but ca 10% EC EPS & MOGREPS solutions showing periodic easterlies. Further trend update expected around 1130am.

Luckily for us coldies, nothing is set in stone! Looking at a 10 - 15 day trend counts for nothing at the moment IMO. In the mean time we have a lot of rain to get through before a shot at some colder weather at last!