Jason T

October 22nd,Kent,Surrey,oxford,Hertfordshire,Cambs.

Hi all, Hope everyone had a good day,Weekend soon be here now. Thanks for the top updates JP.... As usual very informative. Just got back from taking my 10 year old daughter to a open evening for her 1st choice secondary school. Boy time goes quick, blink and you miss it.

Fab updates JP, Weekend is looking lively, Think i will wait for your confirmation on the situation. N Hemi firing up really well.

Hello all, Hope everyone had a good day. Turned out really nice in the end,Fog took a while to burn off. However its back now,Surprisingly mild atm. Friday onwards looking interesting for Storms,Even mentioned it on the local radio.

Good Morning all. Quite Foggy this morning. Enjoy your day. Moderate Fog 8°C Feels Like: 8° Wind Chill: 8° Ceiling: Unl Heat Index: 8° Visibility: 0.18mi Dew Point: 8° Wind: 0mph Humidity: 100% Direction: NA NA Pressure: 30.03" Gusts: NA

Good Night all. Early start tomorrow. Will be on more frequent now,The nights are drawing in. Won't put any more long winded Winter forecast's up, Kills the the thread pages. Also we Don,t need external Forecast predictions Its all right here. However I do believe this Winter will be A corker. Take Care all. JT

Uh Oh Team J in the House.

Hi All here is my Winter Forecast for 2013/14 Enjoy. ADVANCE PREDICTION SEPTEMBER 2013 TO MARCH 2014 I will now attempt to give an advance predicative forecast of the weather from September 2013 to March 2014, however, it comes with some caveats – not because I am ‘hedging the bets,’ as it were, but simply because there are in this period some major weather indicator days, that will affect the following weather for at least this whole period. So, this prediction comes with the condition that it will be issued but with emendations following the important weather days as and when they occur (one of the problems of working so far ahead). The important days are: Michaelmass – 29th September – this is the major wind day up to December 21st, where the wind blows this day will be the predominant wind direction to 21st December (St Thomas – Winter Solstice). The next important day is 11th November – St Martin – where the wind blows this day will be THE predominant wind direction to at least Candlemass - 2 nd February – this is a vital wind day. In effect this wind day controls the winter. Winter Equinox on 21st December is the next date – this the shortest day of the year sets the wind direction effectively to March 21st – vernal/spring equinox. Finally, 2nd February – Candlemass – this sets or confirms the weather through to the spring equinox. There is of course the 21st March – equinox – Quarter Day – sets the predominant wind through to 24th June- Midsummer – St John – Quarter Day. Having said all that I hope that the wind on 29th September will be from the SW – this is warmish wind, true it carries rain, but better at this stage than an easterly wind – which brings cold from the east, though it is a dry wind. 11th November, I think that this will be a SW wind too because I suspect with good cause that the coming winter will be harsh and severe. 21st December is the damaging wind and I suspect this will hammer in from the east bringing some quite severe and harsh cold weather behind it and the wind on 2nd February will also be from the east backing the cold weather up – or magnifying it. All of which then makes the wind on 21st March of little or no consequence, since all the damage will already have been done by the previous winds from the east. I will come to the reasons why I suspect a severe and harsh winter this year – how harsh? Certainly as bad as 1962/3 and maybe even harsher – for the UK north of the M25 for certain a hard winter, for us here in the SE, bad enough, later. So a brief outline of the moon weather suggestions for the months; September: Moons = New 5th = Frequent rain showers. 1st Quarter 12th = Rain. Full 19th = Frequent rain showers. Last Quarter 27th = Cold and rain showers. October: Moons = New 5th = Frost. 1st Quarter 11th = Fair & frosty. Full 18th = Fair and frosty. Last quarter 26th = Fair & frosty. November: Moons = New 3rd = Snow/rain. 1 st Quarter 10th = Rain. Full 17th = Fair & mild. Last Quarter 25th = Fair & frosty. December: Moons = New 3rd = Frost. 1 st Quarter 9 th = Fair & mild. Full 17th = Cold rain. Last Quarter 26th = Snow & rain. January: Moons = New 1st = Cold & high winds. 1 st Quarter 8th = Snow & stormy. Full 16th = Rain. Last Quarter 24th = Rain. New 30th = Rain/snow. February: Moons = 1 st Quarter 6th = Fair & frosty. Full 14th = Fair & frosty. Last Quarter 22nd = Fair. March: Moons = New 1st = Cold rain. 1 st Quarter 8th = Snow/rain. Full 16th = Fair. Last Quarter 24th = Frost. A cursory glance at the above will indicate a wet September: A very cold dry October. Cold beginning and end of November with milder stuff in the middle, a cold beginning and end to December with warmer stuff in the middle. So much for the cursory glance and brief outline, now to put some meat on the bones month by month and see why there are milder and colder sections in these months.SEPTEMBER 2013 September: Moons = New 5th = Frequent rain showers. 1st Quarter 12th = Rain. Full 19th = Frequent rain showers. Last Quarter 27th = Cold and rain showers. Met Office Quiet Period 1st to 17th . No Buchan notes this month. Normally a month with fair weather, quiet sunny days and calmness as the harvest ends for both grain and fruit, and quiet up to the equinox on the 21st . However, this year an indication of change, with, surprisingly a lot of dampness across the month, but then 2013 has been a year of surprises, so nothing new here. I think the remains of the fruit harvest will be of good quality for all the signs through the year indicated this, and a later than average harvest too. Equinox on the 23rd. Quarter Day on 29th – Michaelmass – Day of Prediction, the wind direction this day will be the predominant wind direction until the next Quarter Day 21st December, it is therefore hoped that the wind direction this day will be other than from the east, for an easterly wind will indicate a very cold autumn indeed; and having said that it will make October extremely cold, especially with the frost predictions shown below. In the second week if a the robin becomes prominent in your garden and starts to frequent your back door, it is the first true indicator of a hard winter to come, the robin is staking out its territory,Whilst Batman sits in his warm car and being a ground feeding bird, knows where the food will be. OCTOBER 2013 October: Moons = New 5th = Frost. 1st Quarter 11th = Fair & frosty. Full 18th = Fair and frosty. Last quarter 26 th = Fair & frosty. Penumbral Lunar Eclipse 18th Met Office quiet period 16th to 19th . Met Office stormy period 24th to 13th November. No Buchan notes this month. As can be seen the omens are for a very cold dry month, with not a lot of wind, quite possibly find dry days but with intense cold at night – again, the wind direction on 29th September is paramount.Middle of the month an established quiet period known as St Luke’s little summer, St Luke’s day 18th, around this date four and a bit days of dry sun Sunny warm settled weather daytime, maybe hard frosts at night. This settled (coincides with children’s half-term holiday too) period ends on 28th – St Jude’s day which is always a stormy wet day, which leads into the stormy period indicated above. For golfers your last chance of some dry golf before the BST ends and the clocks go back. NOVEMBER 2013 November: Moons = New 3rd = Snow/rain. 1 st Quarter 10th = Rain. Full 17th = Fair & mild. Last Quarter 25th = Fair & frosty. Hybrid solar eclipse 3rd . Met Office stormy period from 24th October to 13th November. a Quiet period 15th to 21st, and a stormy period 24th to the 14th December. A Buchan cold period 6th to 13th The cold continues from October, however the important day of note for this month is 11th November, St Martin’s day – day of Prediction, but more importantly the weather on this day will indicate quite accurately the predominant weather for the next three months up to Candlemass (2nd February). This day most years indicates the onset of winter; and where the wind blows this day, there it remains until at least 2nd February – so, whilst not a ‘wind day’ per se, it is a vitally important day for future weather. If the wind this day is from the SW there is will remain until 2nd February, indicating a mild winter (as in 2012/13), however with all the indicators showing a harsh winter, if I were a betting man, then an easterly wind on this day is an absolute banker, all my dta points to this as the case too. On the up-side however, St Martin ushers in a period of three days and a bit of dry warm settles weather known at St Martin’s little summer. If we are to have a harsh, severe winter, then St Martin’s day is the day to note how many oak leaves remain on the trees and how many leaves remain on the vines, for leaves on both will indicate a harsh and sever winter, so the second true indicator of a harsh winter.DECEMBER 2013 December: Moons = New 3rd = Frost. 1 st Quarter 9th = Fair & mild. Full 17th = Cold rain/changeable Last Quarter 26th = Snow & rain. Equinox 21st and winter Solstice – Quarter day for wind – shortest day of the year. Met Office stormy period 24th November to 14th December and again 25th to the 31st. Met Office quiet period 15th to 21st . Buchan warm period 3rd to 14th . The cold continues into the first week, but, as one might well expect with a Buchan Warm period too, not so harshly. The two weeks in the middle are normally quite mild, the weather will change around Christmas and I expect that Boxing Day (St Stephen) 26th will herald the start of what I think will be the start of a harsh severe winter for many parts of the UK. All the evidence so far (and it is now the end of May as I write this) points to a late prolonged autumn easing into a cold harsh severe winter. As the year progresses I will give more reasons for this in detail and show how nature, when interpreted accurately, in turn, provides all the knowledge that one needs for the forthcoming months. The particular day in this month to note is the 21st, equinox/quarter day, where the wind blows this day there it will stay until 21st March – Vernal equinox. So, with Easter on the 20th April, it might not be too far stretched to say that the hard winter I think that is to arrive around Boxing day, will remain until at least 21st March, and, as this year (2013) if the easterly wind remains then it will, as it is now (May 2013) cold well into the second week of June. CONCLUSION As I said at the start this prediction September to December 2013 will be subject to revision and amendment on 29th September, 11th November and 21st December, due to those three days being important weather and wind days; having said that, I do not think that there will be any material changes to the above. I will however post all and any such comments as the dates fall due. The January to March section will follow in mid-June. David King Edenbridge 25th May 2013. To end, I found this on Google, had to do it as a wind up stating it was mine...Its NOT.Did you like the Batman bit... However i did say they would all start posting out on the www. If you write in PDF Form, Make sure its in READ only when launched.

Ahhh JP Sorry mate.....No Cigar. Captain S has got it though. However Joe B, Will probably follow suit. That forecast from Mr madden, Would cause mayhem if it became Public. Mind you it would be some Winter to talk about.

To all concerned. The post of mine last night (288). Is as JP Expressed, It was just for fun. Or should i say as soon as we approach the Winter period all manner of Extreme end of the world forecasts begin. Intense read though. Anyone guessed which site its from, Or should i say Forecaster.

I'm not saying where i got this from. It will probably be obvious, Anyone ready for an armageddon Winter. Breath taking forecast,Just need popcorn and Lights out, Maybe some mulled wine (LOTS)Bugger halloween. . Yes it is still September. UK & N Ire Winter Weather Forecast 2013/14 + Major Snow Periods December 2013 The first month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to see a very cold and snowy start to winter. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. The northern half of the country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the vast majority of the whole month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of north-east England. Parts of southern England, Wales, and the Midlands are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout December, especially in parts of southern England and Wales. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout the early part of the December period too. December Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for most parts of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, and even more so throughout the Christmas period and into the early part of 2014. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -20C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too, but especially more so towards the start and end of the this forecasting period. December Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some heavy falls of snow across many parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for some lengthy periods of time in December. The risk of snowfall will remain with much of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 23rd to the 31st December (Especially in northern, eastern and southern parts). January 2014 The second month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to be exceptionally cold and very snowy. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country, and a scenario similar to December 2010 or worse is plausible. The vast majority of the whole country is likely to experience a run of well-below average temperatures for the whole of the month and multiple major snow events, which will also include some potentially dangerous blizzard conditions at times, in particular, in parts of southern England. Parts of northern England, eastern England, Wales, western England, the Midlands, and Northern Ireland are also likely to experience a number of major snow events, that will consist of some crippling falls of snow for these parts throughout January. It is highly likely that there will be major disruption on a prolific scale to the public transport network across much of the country at times and school closures throughout much of the January period too. January Temperatures - Way below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET). Temperatures are also likely to exceed double negative figures quite consistently during the evenings, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. There may even be the possibility of temperature records being broken in places, especially in parts of Scotland and Ireland, towards the start of this forecasting period. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -28C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing across the country during the daytime too. There is also a good probability for the development of ice floes, which will be visible from land in various parts of the country too. January Major Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some very heavy falls of snow across most parts of the country, but especially more so in the southern half of the country. Coupled with the below-average temperatures, this is likely to lead to lying snow on the ground for the vast majority of January. Snow drifts of several feet are also a distinct possibility for this part of the forecasting period. The risk of snowfall will remain with large parts of the country throughout the whole month, but especially more so throughout the period of the 1st to the 15th January. February 2014 The final month of the meteorological 2013/14 winter is likely to continue with the cold and snowy theme. This period is also likely to experience a number of multiple and major widespread snow events across the country. Many parts of the country are likely to experience a run of below average temperatures throughout the month and multiple major snow events, especially in parts of northern and southern England. It is likely that there will be disruption to the public transport network across these parts at times and school closures throughout the February period too. However, a number of brief periods of moderation can’t be ruled for this part of the forecasting period (normal winter conditions), especially in the latter part of this forecasting period. February Temperatures - Below the seasonal average for much of the country and in terms of the mean Central England Temperature (CET), especially to the north of the country. Temperatures may also exceed double negative figures during the evenings at times, especially in parts of Scotland and the north. It is quite plausible that temperatures may surpass -18C in parts of the UK during the evenings, with temperatures also struggling to get above freezing during the daytime at times too, but not consistently due to a number of brief periods of moderation for this part of the forecasting period. February Snowfall - The major snow events are likely to lead to some significant falls of snow across parts of the country, in particular, in parts of northern and southern England. The risk of major snowfall is most likely throughout the period of the 15th to the 25th February in these parts.

Ooooooo JP, The Berries are always right...... Corker ECM at day 10.

That's a stonking ark of cold pooling over the Uk at Day 10, That has actually sent shivers down my spine. I do wonder if what has been progged for this Winter is actually beginning to evolve.

Blimey wait till you tread on a slug bare footed. OMG Its like cold jelly between your toes,and then try and get up stairs to the shower without treading on the carpet. Now that is a mission.

Top right corner is us all. Very tight bars showing from that Low, A bit breezy this weekend, Sorry Bloody Very Wet and Very Windy. enjoy your bbq.

The astronomical winter (Northern Hemisphere) 2013 begins on Saturday, December 21 and ends on Wednesday, March 19 Late October, Early November Prediction....Picture. I think/Believe Winter will touch base way before the 21st December.

Evening people, Hope everyone well. Have not posted for awhile work been very busy. Anyway Winter will very soon be here,Nights are drawing in ,Lovely. We could be in for quite a Winter shocker this year and early 2014.

Hi all, Lovely day again, In fact this week has been very nice indeed, Nice end to the Summer. Next week looking good as-well. Might fire up the BBQ one last time for Summer 2013. To be honest it has been a complete turn around to recent Summers, I have noticed the Bloody Wasps trying to make up for lost time...Jeeeez what purpose do they have on Earth (Apart from being annoying and Stinging). Sunday is the start of Autumn TO Winter phase, Any predictions for this period Peeps.?. Take Care and Enjoy your Weekend.

Hello Folks. Hope everyone OK. Final Bank holiday of the year, This year is flying by. Speaking of flying, I was looking around for live weather radar, Came across this.....http://planefinder.net/ Bugger being an air traffic controller with that lot. Looking a tad wet over night and tomorrow with a nice Halogen strobe light show in the mix. (BBQ Sunday....?.) . Nice to see very pleasant weather for next week, Cant really grumble at all for this Summer, Compared to the 6 previous. Enjoy your weekend and take care. Jason.

Hello all, Not been on or a while. Hope everyone well. It has been quite warm today,Plenty of the solar heat. I see we are still waiting for this apparent very hot heatwave to appear (Rumours I have heard), Mind you as much as daylight hours are shorter, September can really pack a punch.I guess time will tell. Ahhhhh another Bank Holiday weekend incoming....Will it rain ?. I see your still delivering those Top notch post's JP. Keep going mate. Take Care all and Enjoy your Bank Holiday Weekend.

Evening pop pickers. Who's up for a potential August heatwave (Mid month). There is a lot of hype that we could about to break potential records,How true this is (Who Knows). Some radio station's ,Including Radio 2,Have stated that from a forecaster, All is not what it seems through displayed output,There are a few underlying scenarios. I am intrigued. Funny Enough in the Model Discussion, Post's are talking about a second heatwave,Sorry let me rephrase that,Possible, IMBY Perspective bring it on, The beauty with August Summer weather is Temps can really climb and stick around,Night time can be ...Pheeewww, Scorchio. I would so like us all to be breaking this present pattern of Dross and Grey and rain. I know July has been a breath of HOT warm air, But august can deliver and put a real banging show on. Take care all. JT................

JP PM.

Anyone got any oxygen, Its so warm and feels very very humid. I see max temps reached today are really something,Its funny how over past 7 years,We have all been crying for a decent summer. Fed up with the wash-outs and the grey overcast depression, What a difference 7 years and 1 day makes or should I say 1st of August 2013. Any storms now will be BANGING. Clear 25°C Feels Like: 26° Wind Chill: 25° Ceiling: Unl Heat Index: 26° Visibility: 6mi Dew Point: 16° Wind: 6mph Humidity: 57% Direction: 170° (S) Pressure: 29.71" Gusts: NA

Evening all, Quite interested in reports that another heatwave is on the way for August,Guess we will have to wait and see. Anyway brief hot moment incoming, Enjoy. Overcast 17°C Feels Like: 17° Wind Chill: 17° Ceiling: 1200 Heat Index: 17° Visibility: 6mi Dew Point: 17° Wind: 10mph Humidity: 94% Direction: 200° (SSW) Pressure: 29.94" Gusts: NA