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GEM looks good for cold in its later output!

This mornings GEM is worse than GFS in downgrading cold. I think this model has been performing well so one to watch over the next couple of days.

The upper air temp around russia is not as cold on this 0z ECM runs so not expecting FI to be as cold as last nights run but looking very good...

Question, would the ECM bring snow in the form of convective showers only or would there be fronts embedded in the flow? It is clear that the east is going to do well but what about the rest of the country? I know it's too early to know exactly where snow will fall; the question is based on tonight’s 12z

Anyone got a link to the long range ECM ensembles? I'm guessing they're not as good as yesterdays 12z because no comments...

From an IMBY point of view I hope that is not the outcome, or at least not to start with. The NW is much more likely to get snow from a greenland high. I like the look of the wind direction on the GFS. Perfect for showers flowing through the cheshire gap

Nearly a week has passed since my last post and we are in a very different place to how I anticipated things to turn out. I really thought we would be in a well-established easterly right now. It just shows how model development can change very suddenly when they pick up changes in vortex energy distribution. It looks like all models are seeing a ridge developing in to Greenland at around T192. I like the GEM solution. Greenland high merges with scandi heights and it looks like a north easterly wind would develop over the UK further down the line. Early days but there is potential for something very cold to develop if the models continue with the recent trend, if you can call it that yet.

GFS 06Z should normally be discounted but has been known to be useful for charts past T240

Hmm, T300 on the GFS 18z looks like the start of hight rises towards greenland again...

I don't agree unless you talking about recent GFS runs. Snow will fall to low levels even on the coast after the 30th if your looking at the ECM & UKMO models.

I personally believe that the cold spell will outdo 2010. The upper atmosphere is playing along better this year. Watch for upgrades mid week. I think we will see colder 850 forecast. I agree that it is looking like we could get another cold spell mid Jan so much better than 2010.

The pattern looks like its reloading at T240 on the ECM!!

Is it me or is the ECM on wetterzentrale shown as the 12z event though its the 00z?

I'm talking about the 06z. The 00z was better for cold but developments didn't look right to me after T96. I think the ECM and UKMO models have got a better grip of the situation, as per previous similar blocking setups. Expect to see upgrades for cold middle of next week...

The whole run is poor. Its going to be a mild outlier!

The 06z is not as good for cold in the same timeframes as the previous run. IMO we don't want to see perfect charts at this stage, remember the pattern is evolving so perfect charts now may lead to poorer runs nearer real time. I'm confident that we will see colder runs as we go into next week. This year will beat 2010 IMHO.

JMA looks like the pick of the bunch to me. I'm sure we will see colder runs in the near future...

Yeah I know but I'm expecting the models to show HLB and this will be reflected in future AO graphs. The run that you see touch -5 is where I'm expecting future output to go. In fact my prediction is -6 for early December. I don't think we can rule out a 2010 start to Winter at this stage. The signs are there again IMHO...

Looks like the AO is heading negative. I'm expecting to see some superb cold runs appearing in the models next week, as we get closer to the end of the month.

The GFS is disapointing for cold lovers this morning, everything looks further west around the 2nd/3rd of November and that prevents the colder air filtering over us. UKMO looks allot colder for the same timeframe with snow on higher ground possible.

The latest GFS run looks like it is coming in line with the ECM, with the blocking further west. I'm interested to know how the HLB evolves in the coming weeks. Could be an eastly down the line?

Is that a massive snow event in some places I can see on the 18Z. Battle ground like.

WOW, maybe some early snowfall on the cards up north. I want to see these charts again mid December

Yeah, one things for sure though, it won't look like that at T0, plenty of room for improvement. Could go the other way but it looks better for cold than yesterdays run. Things just need to move west a little, which I find odd because not to long ago things look like they could be to far west. Lots of changes to come I'm sure.

It wouldn't be cold for the UK but I think it's a good sign to see cold pools hiting europe so early in the season. Could be a sign of things to come I think.